Posted on 10/04/2008 5:09:44 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
About 15 volunteers sat in a storefront office abutting the Kenduskeag Stream in downtown Bangor on a recent evening, calling local residents to ask if Barack Obama could count on their vote.
Their mission had been painted in cartoon form on the windows of the Democratic Party headquarters: A donkey lounging in a rowboat imploring voters to "Help Keep Maine Blue."
The Democratic strategists may have to work especially hard to keep the Second Congressional District blue. Yesterday, Republican John McCain's campaign announced that it had begun withdrawing from Michigan, but would start committing resources to Maine, where strategists say he has been buoyed by the addition of Sarah Palin to his ticket.
This is one of only two states that award electoral votes in a manner other than winner-take-all: A losing candidate statewide can still claim one of the state's four electoral college votes by winning one of the two congressional districts. While both campaigns have long expected that Obama would carry the state, both public and private polls show the race closing. In one poll released two weeks ago by Rasmussen Reports, a steady double-digit advantage that had carried Obama through the spring and summer had shrunk to four percentage points.
Much of McCain's gain appears to derive from a renewed appeal in Maine's Second, the largest district east of the Mississippi River, sprawling through the state's rural north and east. Maine consultants describe the differences between the electorates in their two districts in lifestyle terms: the southern, liberal First is hiking and kayaking, the Second is hunting and fishing.
(Excerpt) Read more at boston.com ...
This district nearly went for George W. Bush in 2000.
I know a couple of families who moved there.
They are all democrats, but everyone of them told me they will be voting for McCain.
Actually one dyed in the wool Dem told me he was voting for Sarah more than McCain.
Those folks are big snow mobile people. Sarah is right up their alley.
I guess every EV counts.
Hopefully the effort in Maine will at least pay a dividend in New Hampshire.
Yeah, I was kind of surprised that the NH folks aren’t going for McCain?
I don’t know whether it is a good sign or a bad one that the McCain camp is “stretching” the playing field?
NH has been trending blue in the last few elections.
But McCain might gain an edge there, he has probably met every New Hampshire voter at least 3, 4 times.
If John McCain were really trailing by six points nationally, there is absolutely no way we’d be having this discussion about Maine. Or Minnesota for that matter. Palin or no Palin. (and I mean no disrespect to her)
In a close race (and this could well be one), peeling off that one EV could be the winning vote!
I agree 100% — they are overpolling Dems by such a wide margin that the national polling outfits are out on a limb even with their state polls.
Still think the MI pullout was not what it seemed.
I don’t know what the MI deal was. I don’t get it. But I do know that the people involved have been doing this a long time, for better or worse.
New Englanders are an odd lot? Isn’t the NRA a force up there?
I know. If McCain was really down by six nationally, he would be down double digits in both states.
It really comes down to turnout. Take today's Rasmussen's numbers as a frame of reference. If turnout is like it was in 2004, he is oversampling Democrats by 2 points and understampling Republicans by 4 points. What he reports as a +5 lead for Obama becomes at least a +1 lead for McCain (I say "at least" because slightly more Democrats will vote for McCain than Republicans for Obama). Even if turnout is like it was two years ago, what was a +5 lead for Obama shrinks to +2 -- within the margin of error.
If turnout is like 2006, McCain/Palin will almost certainly lose. If it’s like 2004, which I think is MUCH more likely after the Palin selection, the chance of the Obamessiah winning is fairly small.
If turnout is like 2004, McCain wins, and by a bigger margin than Bush did.
I tend to agree. The only way that really wouldn’t be the case is if the black vote truly sets records in turnout. Not in 90-95% voting for the Dem, but in raw numbers. And even that would only apply in certain states.
You mean states like Illinois? New York? New Jersey? California? Are you thinking the same thing I'm thinking?
But ultimately I think The One will lose both VA and NC.
I agree with you, even if McCain doesn’t win Virginia by 8 points or NC by 12 points.
I want to see how they’ll color in Maine on the map with a 3-1 split. Do they even have the graphics ready?
President Bush got 46.13% in the ME-02 in 2004. That’s lower than he did in the State of New Jersey. Every EV does count, but I’d rather that the McCain/Palin campaign fight for the 17 EVs in Michigan (47.81% for President Bush in 2004) than for the ME-02.
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