Neither Ehrlich or Steele Will Rule Out Running For Senate (Potential GOP Senate Pick-up))

The Hedgehog Report ^ | March 13, 2005 | Dave Wissing

[AuH2ORepublican]

Neither Ehrlich or Steele Will Rule Out Running For Senate

While O’Malley and Duncan have given unequivocal statements stating that they will not run for Paul Sarbanes’ seat and will remain in the Governor’s race, neither Governor Ehrlich or Lt. Governor Michael Steele would give the same unequivocal statement when asked. From The Baltimore Sun.

"Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. said yesterday that he and Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele had been contacted by “the powers that be” in Washington about the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Paul S. Sarbanes, and that the two had planned a discussion about the race.

Speaking on WBAL radio, the Republican governor said running for Senate was “not under consideration,” but he did not rule out the prospect.

“We were called by the powers that be yesterday [Friday] in Washington, and I have yet to talk to them. Mike has yet to talk to them,” Ehrlich said on Stateline with the Governor.

“Obviously, when powerful people in Washington call, you take their phone call and you discuss. You listen, basically,” he said. “But I have a job to do here. I was elected to do a job. I love my job.” …. Bush political guru Karl Rove advised Ehrlich during the 2002 gubernatorial campaign, said Carol L. Hirschburg, a state Republican consultant.

“Maryland and the governor are very connected to the epicenter of power in Washington,” Hirschburg said yesterday. “There’s no doubt that he would be the strongest candidate for the Republicans. I also know that at one time being a U.S. senator was a goal of his,” she said. …. Ehrlich indicated yesterday that most of the attention for the open seat should be trained on Steele, not him. He said he and Steele planned to talk yesterday about the race.

Steele has seen his profile rise dramatically in national Republican circles, where he is, arguably, the GOP’s most prominent African-American elected official in the nation. Steele had a featured speaking role at last year’s national convention, and has toured the country helping the party recruit minorities. …. “He’s complimented; I’m complimented; the administration is complimented that his name would be so prominent as a potential replacement,” Ehrlich said on WBAL. "

While the focus has been on whether Steele is going to run for Senate, if one of these two is going to run, it would seem to me that Ehrlich is the more natural fit seeing that, except for the past two-plus years as Governor of Maryland, he has been a legislator his entire political career. Obviously if Ehrlich were to decide to run for the Senate, it makes Michael Steele the natural nominee for Governor and a Steele for Governor/Ehrlich for Senator would be a pretty potent ticket for the Maryland Republican Party going into 2006. I pesonally do not think it will happen, but it is something to think about.

[AuH2ORepublican]

The Baltimore Sun story on which the blog post was based is here: http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/bal-md.sarbanes13mar13,1,2283549.story?coll=bal-local-headlines&ctrack=1&cset=true

In my opinion, it sounds like Gov. Ehrlich and Lt. Gov. Steele are going to decide which of the two will run for the governorship and which one will run for the Senate. With Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley and Montgomery County Executive Director Doug Duncan releasing statements that make clear that they will not seek the Democrat Senate nomination and will continue to run for governor, I think the Democrat Senate candidate will be either white Baltimore Congressman Ben Cardin, black Prince George's County Congressman Al Wynn, or black former Baltimore Congressman and ex-NAACP president Kweisi Mfume. I think Lt. Gov. Michael Steele would be favored to defeat Wynn or Mfume and would have a good chance against Cardin.

[RockinRight]

Steele will be President someday, methinks.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Please correct my typos in the title (should be Potential, and should only have one parenthesis at the end.

But the typo in the words outside the parentheses ("or" instead of "nor") are from the original.

Thank you.

[AuH2ORepublican]

*Potential GOP Senate Pick-up PING*

Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is a solid conservative and if elected to the U.S. Senate would prove to people across the nation that being black is not incompatible with being a pro-life Republican. Steele's only liberal issue position is that he is opposed to the death penalty, but given the rest of his views I can certainly live with that.

[cyborg]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1344710/posts

I have Leo Terrell's bet with Sean Hannity offically documented so cross your fingers! LOL

[Bluegrass Conservative]

I don't care if the man is white, black, tan or purple . . . Michael Steele is THE person for this job!!! No one who heard his speech at the Republican National Convention could possibly think that he's at the pinnacle of his career!

[staytrue]

Ehrlich is one of one, (gov. of MD). In the senate, he would be 1 of 100. Steele, as senator would be one of one or one of two, the only black republican senator and only one of 2 in the senate.

Ehrlich for gov, and Steele for Senate makes the most sense.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Ehrlich for gov, and Steele for Senate makes the most sense."

---

I agree 100%. Another reason is that if Ehrlich runs for the Senate and Steele runs for Governor, we wouldn't have the power of incumbency help us in the gubernatorial race, so we're better off with Ehrlich running for reelection.

[Coop]

As much as I'd love to see this seat turn GOP, I'm not sure how "in play" this seat really will be. Ehrlich did win the gov's seat in '02, but Sauerbrey gave it a good run in the two previous gubernatorial elections. And Maryland stayed true to form in the '04 Presidential election.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Ehrlich did win the gov's seat in '02, but Sauerbrey gave it a good run in the two previous gubernatorial elections. And Maryland stayed true to form in the '04 Presidential election."

---

President Bush got 42.9% in 2004, a bit better than the 40.2% he got in 2000. The Ehrlich-Steele ticket got 51.6% in 2002, and assuming that Gov. Ehrlich can get reelected, it should provide Michael Steele with enough coattails to win the open Senate seat, especially if the Democrat candidate is a black liberal who will run poorly outside of PG County, Baltimore City and a few heavily black Baltco suburbs.

[Torie]

It isn't in play.

[Coop]

President Bush got 42.9% in 2004, a bit better than the 40.2% he got in 2000. The Ehrlich-Steele ticket got 51.6% in 2002, and assuming that Gov. Ehrlich can get reelected, it should provide Michael Steele with enough coattails to win the open Senate seat, especially if the Democrat candidate is a black liberal who will run poorly outside of PG County, Baltimore City and a few heavily black Baltco suburbs.

Mmmmm, I just think that's a very optimistic scenario. Heck, Glendenning only won four counties in the entire state in '98, but that was enough. And just by the numbers, I think Ehrlich's got some significant support from Dems, which means you likely can't count on them to vote GOP for an open Senate seat.

[AuH2ORepublican]

It shouldn't surprise anyone that Glendenning won in 1998 despite only carrying 4 counties: Montgomery County, Prince George's County and Baltimore City normally go so heavily Democrat that it is possible for a Democrat to win statewide in spite of only carrying those two counties and one city.

In 2002, Ehrlich won by getting 61% in Baltimore County (which voted rather narrowly for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004) and by winning larger-than-usual margins in Republican counties. I think Ehrlich can replicate this in 2006, and that Steele should be able to run fairly close to Ehrlich in Baltco and in the GOP counties while doing better than Ehrlich in black-majority PG County (which also happens to be Steele's home county) and Baltimore City.

Here are the 2002 gubernatorial election totals (I don't know how to format, but hopefully it will look okay):

County Total Vote Ehrlich% Townsend% Ehrlich Townsend
Allegany 22,448 64.22% 34.89% 14,416 7,831
Anne Arundel 176,179 64.69% 34.48% 113,968 60,753
Baltimore 279,387 61.18% 38.01% 170,920 106,195
Calvert 26,255 61.68% 37.53% 16,193 9,854
Caroline 8,418 74.67% 24.58% 6,286 2,069 Carroll 59,946 78.95% 20.20% 47,328 12,107
Cecil 24,891 68.12% 30.81% 16,956 7,668
Charles 35,100 56.11% 43.16% 19,695 15,149 Dorchester 10,325 67.23% 32.12% 6,941 3,316 Frederick 66,155 65.98% 33.12% 43,646 21,913
Garrett 9,019 73.22% 26.11% 6,604 2,355 Harford 85,503 74.33% 24.85% 63,553 21,246
Howard 96,508 55.19% 43.97% 53,260 42,438
Kent 7,710 65.01% 34.25% 5,012 2,641 Montgomery 296,524 38.34% 60.90% 113,680 180,576
Pr. George's 197,194 22.92% 76.54% 45,193 150,927
Queen Anne's 16,642 74.16% 25.18% 12,341 4,190
St. Mary's 25,299 63.19% 35.76% 15,986 9,048
Somerset 6,608 68.34% 31.05% 4,516 2,052 Talbot 14,305 69.92% 29.54% 10,002 4,225
Washington 38,345 68.62% 30.56% 26,312 11,719 Wicomico 24,995 64.23% 35.11% 16,054 8,775 Worcester 18,317 64.92% 34.42% 11,892 6,305

City
Baltimore 160,106 24.26% 74.99% 38,838 120,070

Total 1,706,179 51.55% 47.68% 879,592 813,422

[AuH2ORepublican]

It shouldn't surprise anyone that Glendenning won in 1998 despite only carrying 4 counties: Montgomery County, Prince George's County and Baltimore City normally go so heavily Democrat that it is possible for a Democrat to win statewide in spite of only carrying those two counties and one city.

In 2002, Ehrlich won by getting 61% in Baltimore County (which voted rather narrowly for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004) and by winning larger-than-usual margins in Republican counties. I think Ehrlich can replicate this in 2006, and that Steele should be able to run fairly close to Ehrlich in Baltco and in the GOP counties while doing better than Ehrlich in black-majority PG County (which also happens to be Steele's home county) and Baltimore City.

Here are the 2002 gubernatorial election totals (I don't know how to format, but hopefully it will look okay):

County Total Vote Ehrlich% Townsend% Ehrlich Townsend
Allegany 22,448 64.22% 34.89% 14,416 7,831
Anne Arundel 176,179 64.69% 34.48% 113,968 60,753
Baltimore 279,387 61.18% 38.01% 170,920 106,195
Calvert 26,255 61.68% 37.53% 16,193 9,854
Caroline 8,418 74.67% 24.58% 6,286 2,069
Carroll 59,946 78.95% 20.20% 47,328 12,107
Cecil 24,891 68.12% 30.81% 16,956 7,668
Charles 35,100 56.11% 43.16% 19,695 15,149
Dorchester 10,325 67.23% 32.12% 6,941 3,316
Frederick 66,155 65.98% 33.12% 43,646 21,913
Garrett 9,019 73.22% 26.11% 6,604 2,355
Harford 85,503 74.33% 24.85% 63,553 21,246
Howard 96,508 55.19% 43.97% 53,260 42,438
Kent 7,710 65.01% 34.25% 5,012 2,641
Montgomery 296,524 38.34% 60.90% 113,680 180,576
Pr. George's 197,194 22.92% 76.54% 45,193 150,927
Queen Anne's 16,642 74.16% 25.18% 12,341 4,190
St. Mary's 25,299 63.19% 35.76% 15,986 9,048
Somerset 6,608 68.34% 31.05% 4,516 2,052
Talbot 14,305 69.92% 29.54% 10,002 4,225
Washington 38,345 68.62% 30.56% 26,312 11,719
Wicomico 24,995 64.23% 35.11% 16,054 8,775
Worcester 18,317 64.92% 34.42% 11,892 6,305

City
Baltimore 160,106 24.26% 74.99% 38,838 120,070

Total 1,706,179 51.55% 47.68% 879,592 813,422

[LdSentinal]

It could be if Mfume wins the Democratic primary.

[Do not dub me shapka broham]

...or Mfume.

We can only hope.

:)

-good times, G.J.P. (Jr.)

[Soul Seeker]

Agreed.

Steele's speech is one of the few I recall from the convention that was not prominently featured in the primetime lineup. he was impressive and many of us stated the Reps he was a rising star in the ranks. I'd prefer him as Governor since Senators seem to be leaving me with a bad taste in my mouth lately, but maybe he'd reverse the trend. Erlich should run as an incumbent, Steele for Senate. No rule that states Steele couldn't run for Gov when Erlich's time is up, and vice versa.

[Bluegrass Conservative]

No rule that states Steele couldn't run for Gov when Erlich's time is up, and vice versa.

Very true. There are plenty of instances of Senators running for Governor. Frank Murkowski did it in Alaska a few years ago. Jon Corzine is doing it in New Jersey right now.

[Clintonfatigued]

I think so too. I've read that Governor Erlich is not particularly popular and could very well lose. By contrast Michael Steele is viewed favorably with low negative ratings, though he is not well-difined.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I've read that Governor Erlich is not particularly popular and could very well lose."

---

Actually, I just read today that Governor Ehrlich's approval rating is 56%, which is damn good.

I think Ehrlich and Steele complement each other (as proven by their ticket's upset victory in 2002) and that both could win if Ehrlich runs for reelection and Steele runs for the Senate.