Mmmmm, I just think that's a very optimistic scenario. Heck, Glendenning only won four counties in the entire state in '98, but that was enough. And just by the numbers, I think Ehrlich's got some significant support from Dems, which means you likely can't count on them to vote GOP for an open Senate seat.
It shouldn't surprise anyone that Glendenning won in 1998 despite only carrying 4 counties: Montgomery County, Prince George's County and Baltimore City normally go so heavily Democrat that it is possible for a Democrat to win statewide in spite of only carrying those two counties and one city.
In 2002, Ehrlich won by getting 61% in Baltimore County (which voted rather narrowly for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004) and by winning larger-than-usual margins in Republican counties. I think Ehrlich can replicate this in 2006, and that Steele should be able to run fairly close to Ehrlich in Baltco and in the GOP counties while doing better than Ehrlich in black-majority PG County (which also happens to be Steele's home county) and Baltimore City.
Here are the 2002 gubernatorial election totals (I don't know how to format, but hopefully it will look okay):
County Total Vote Ehrlich% Townsend% Ehrlich Townsend
Allegany 22,448 64.22% 34.89% 14,416 7,831
Anne Arundel 176,179 64.69% 34.48% 113,968 60,753
Baltimore 279,387 61.18% 38.01% 170,920 106,195
Calvert 26,255 61.68% 37.53% 16,193 9,854
Caroline 8,418 74.67% 24.58% 6,286 2,069 Carroll 59,946 78.95% 20.20% 47,328 12,107
Cecil 24,891 68.12% 30.81% 16,956 7,668
Charles 35,100 56.11% 43.16% 19,695 15,149 Dorchester 10,325 67.23% 32.12% 6,941 3,316 Frederick 66,155 65.98% 33.12% 43,646 21,913
Garrett 9,019 73.22% 26.11% 6,604 2,355 Harford 85,503 74.33% 24.85% 63,553 21,246
Howard 96,508 55.19% 43.97% 53,260 42,438
Kent 7,710 65.01% 34.25% 5,012 2,641 Montgomery 296,524 38.34% 60.90% 113,680 180,576
Pr. George's 197,194 22.92% 76.54% 45,193 150,927
Queen Anne's 16,642 74.16% 25.18% 12,341 4,190
St. Mary's 25,299 63.19% 35.76% 15,986 9,048
Somerset 6,608 68.34% 31.05% 4,516 2,052 Talbot 14,305 69.92% 29.54% 10,002 4,225
Washington 38,345 68.62% 30.56% 26,312 11,719 Wicomico 24,995 64.23% 35.11% 16,054 8,775 Worcester 18,317 64.92% 34.42% 11,892 6,305
City
Baltimore 160,106 24.26% 74.99% 38,838 120,070
Total 1,706,179 51.55% 47.68% 879,592 813,422
It shouldn't surprise anyone that Glendenning won in 1998 despite only carrying 4 counties: Montgomery County, Prince George's County and Baltimore City normally go so heavily Democrat that it is possible for a Democrat to win statewide in spite of only carrying those two counties and one city.
In 2002, Ehrlich won by getting 61% in Baltimore County (which voted rather narrowly for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004) and by winning larger-than-usual margins in Republican counties. I think Ehrlich can replicate this in 2006, and that Steele should be able to run fairly close to Ehrlich in Baltco and in the GOP counties while doing better than Ehrlich in black-majority PG County (which also happens to be Steele's home county) and Baltimore City.
Here are the 2002 gubernatorial election totals (I don't know how to format, but hopefully it will look okay):
County Total Vote Ehrlich% Townsend% Ehrlich Townsend
Allegany 22,448 64.22% 34.89% 14,416 7,831
Anne Arundel 176,179 64.69% 34.48% 113,968 60,753
Baltimore 279,387 61.18% 38.01% 170,920 106,195
Calvert 26,255 61.68% 37.53% 16,193 9,854
Caroline 8,418 74.67% 24.58% 6,286 2,069
Carroll 59,946 78.95% 20.20% 47,328 12,107
Cecil 24,891 68.12% 30.81% 16,956 7,668
Charles 35,100 56.11% 43.16% 19,695 15,149
Dorchester 10,325 67.23% 32.12% 6,941 3,316
Frederick 66,155 65.98% 33.12% 43,646 21,913
Garrett 9,019 73.22% 26.11% 6,604 2,355
Harford 85,503 74.33% 24.85% 63,553 21,246
Howard 96,508 55.19% 43.97% 53,260 42,438
Kent 7,710 65.01% 34.25% 5,012 2,641
Montgomery 296,524 38.34% 60.90% 113,680 180,576
Pr. George's 197,194 22.92% 76.54% 45,193 150,927
Queen Anne's 16,642 74.16% 25.18% 12,341 4,190
St. Mary's 25,299 63.19% 35.76% 15,986 9,048
Somerset 6,608 68.34% 31.05% 4,516 2,052
Talbot 14,305 69.92% 29.54% 10,002 4,225
Washington 38,345 68.62% 30.56% 26,312 11,719
Wicomico 24,995 64.23% 35.11% 16,054 8,775
Worcester 18,317 64.92% 34.42% 11,892 6,305
City
Baltimore 160,106 24.26% 74.99% 38,838 120,070
Total 1,706,179 51.55% 47.68% 879,592 813,422