It's Over for Kerry in Louisiana; Are Other State Democrat Hopefuls Next?

PoliticsLA.com ^ | July 28, 2004 | Prof. Jeff Sadow

[AuH2ORepublican]

Great news coming out of Lousiana. And the professor is correct that Kerry has to hope that everything works out perfectly for him to be able to win the presidency, while with only a little luck President Bush could win in a landslide.

[AuH2ORepublican]

*POSSIBLE BUSH LANDSLIDE PING*

[Clintonfatigued]

As usual, the Cajun vote in southern Louisiana west of New Orleans will decide the outcome. Chances are, they will stick with Bush. They are largely responsible for Bush's victory over Gore.

The third Congressional district is more complicated than is mentioned. Republicans have two first-tier candidates running. Billy Tauzin III has national fundraising support, but has no electoral record of his own. A number of local Republicans support state Senator Craig Romero, a former Iberia Parish President (equivilent to county executive). Meanwhile, the 'Rats have a strong candidate in Charles Melconcan, scion of a sugar-producing empire.

[Dan from Michigan]

If this stays the case, great. Louisiana is never an easy state to win.

[Coop]

Very interesting reading. Thanks for the ping.

[fieldmarshaldj]

My concern isn't so much Dubya losing LA, but that we'll fall short on the Senate seat... because when it goes to a later-date runoff, we get killed by fraud or chicanery (Moore-Breaux '86; Jenkins-Landrieu '96; Jindal-Blanco '03).

[alnick]

I just saw a Kerry ad in Louisiana. It was on Fox News, so maybe it was run nationally.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Republicans have also fielded a candidate to take on first termer Rodney Alexander in LA-05, an Alexandria Republican named Jock Scott. I hear the national Republicans are taking this race seriously and will pump in money so Scott is competitive.

I'd like to see some progress in LA-07, Chris John's open seat. David Thibodaux is polling behind two Democrats for third place, but the Republican who is securing the major endorsements and who has the most cash of all the candidates, Charles Boustany, is stuck at 7%, way behind everyone else.

As far as the senate race goes, who knows. Chris John is currenly not a lock for the second place in the runoff, and he's spent the past few weeks sniping at Vitter over every issue from coastal restoration to homeland security. Frankly, he's acting like a bit of a snot.

And oh yes, Chris John still has not explained his vote against the House amendment to kill U.S. funding for UN observance of our presidential election, which brings me to this:



I'm keeping track of this and the LA senate race on Vitter Blog.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"David Thibodaux is polling behind two Democrats for third place"

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It's still early. I hope Thibodeaux doesn't get cheated out of the run-off like he was in 1996.

The most interesting scenarios in both the 7th CD and in the Senate race would occur if the white moderates split the white Democrat vote and allow a black liberal to sneak into the run-off against a Republican. I think this is a possibility in the Senate race, as I've written before (see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1095343/posts?page=4#4 ), although less likely in the 7th CD race, since the district's black population isn't all that high. But hopefully Vitter can get 50% on election day and forgo a run-off.

[deport]

Louisiana ping...... Maybe we can get a Senate seat here also....

[deport]

A little info on the Louisiana Races..... Not sure that President Bush was ever in trouble in LA but I know you think differently. Pulling the ads don't mean much from Kerry as he has stopped many for the next month so save his cash..... But pulling campaign workers out indicate that both campaigns must be reading it the same....

[PhiKapMom]

It is run nationally -- it runs here in OK as well and Kerry folded his tent here after the Feb OK primary when he came in 3rd.

[Impy]

I'm curious, do you know if there would be a runnoff for the state's electoral votes if no candidate wins a majority of the vote?

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I'm curious, do you know if there would be a runnoff for the state's electoral votes if no candidate wins a majority of the vote?"

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No, there wouldn't. In fact, Clinton carried the state with only 45.6% in 1992, and there was no run-off.

[Theodore R.]

Is Jock Scott running for the Alexander House seat? I did not know that the Republicans were contesting that race. Scott's father, the late Nauman Scott, was the Nixon-appointed federal judge who ordered massive cross-parish school busing to achieve racial balance in the 1970s and 1980s.

[Theodore R.]

I believe that Scott ran unsuccessfully for this seat (in a reconfigured district) in 1985, when the popular Democrat Gillis W. Long died on the day of Reagan's second inaugural.

[Theodore R.]

Also, Scott was an early organizer for Jimmy Carter in Rapides Parish in 1976.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Is Jock Scott running for the Alexander House seat?"

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Yes, he's running. According to Politics1.com, Lee Fletcher, Kay Katz and Robert Barham are also possible candidates, but none of them have declared yet. I think Cooksey already said he wouldn't seek his old House seat.

Was it Jock Scott or his dad who ran for the House in 1985 and who organized Rapides Parish for Carter in 1976?

[Theodore R.]

It was Jock Scott, a former Democrat state legislator who ran for Congress in 1985. I don't recall if he ran as a Democrat or Republican that year. His late father, Nauman S. Scott, was a Republican who lost a race for local office in 1966. Nixon made him a federal judge; Scott was unpopular among conservatives, the epitome of the "big government" judge. By the middle or late 80s, Scott had also become Republicans. It was Jock Scott and now Alexandria Mayor Edward "Ned" Randoloph, then a state senator, who organized Rapides Parish for the Carter-Mondale forces.

[Theodore R.]

I believe that Lee Fletcher has also taken himself out of consideration in 2004 for the House. He narrowly lost to Alexander in 2002, when Mary Landrieu led the state Democrats to a big victory. Fletcher cannot take time from his new business to run.

Apparently, Clyde Holloway is not making his fifth or sixth losing race again this year.