Will Iraqi War Tempt China to Invade Taiwan?

DefeneWatch ^ | 11-20-2002 | Tom Knowlton

[blaster88]

It didn't last time. Why now?

[Sparta]

Intelligence sources additionally believe that China shipped SA-7 surface-to-air missiles to the Taliban regime after the 9/11 attacks, and as recently as August 2002, hosted a Taliban delegation lead by Ustad Khalil, the brother of high-ranking Taliban warlord Jalaluddin Haqqani.

If this doesn't prove China knew about 9/11 or authorized it, I don't know what will. The truth behind 9/11 will be found in the ruins of Beijing.

[ffrancone]

Why invade Taiwan now when they didn't in 1991, you ask. Several reasons:

1. China has built a large force of ballistic missiles that can reach Taiwan. They didn't have it in 1991.

2. The US military was at a peak in 1991. It had been designed to fight one major war against the Soviets and another intermediate size war simultaneously. Today, we are stretched thin in just the middle east. After eight years of Clinton . . .

3. Perhaps most important. China is at a use it or lose it point. In 3-4 years we will deploy ship based anti missle systems that will negate the entire Chinese advantage (ballistic missles) in the coming Taiwan conflict. If they don't take advantage of this window of opportunity, they will not have another for many years.

I think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a not unlikely result of an invasion of Iraq. Because of the strategic importance of Taiwan, we must be prepared to fight that war also. We have smart guys running this show. They will do what they can.

[Sparta]

Also keep in mind one thing, Chinese conventional weapons are far more modern and the troops are far better trained then they were almost 12 years ago. The problem for the ChiComs is that they have only a limited number of the high-tech equipment.

[11B3]

Although 'reunification' is mentally important to the ChiComs, the value gained vs. the costs are still not in their favor. There is, however, another place for them to be adventurous: Siberia for its' vast wealth of resources.

Think about it - the ChiComs are already planning for a severe oil flow problem to keep up their growth. Initially they planned on destabilizing the India/Pak trouble with the hope that war would start there and they could march in to help the Paks. Once in Pakistan, they were within sight of the middle eastern oil fields. Well, when they ordered 9-11 to happen, they miscalculated by thinking that we wouldn't actually go into Afghanistan. Now we've got a huge presence in the middle east and Caucasus region. So much for that method of getting their oil. (Now they have to depend on us keeping the Persian Gulf open as well.)

So they look north. Siberia has huge reserves of oil, timber, and minerals. Also, the population density there is minimal. Russia's military is nearly all west of the Urals, with only a token presence in the east. Easy pickings for the ChiComs, and it solves a lot of their troubles (while starting a whole batch of new ones). If everything went well (really BIG if), then China would be in a much stronger position to take on Taiwan later in the year, with some combat experienced troops.

[El Gato]

It didn't last time. Why now?

We hadn't just finished suffering through two terms of Clintonian destruction of the military. We had the capability to both deter China and kick Iraq out of Kuwait. It's not clear that we have the capability to that now. We've had major reductions in the size of our military, most especially the number of carriers and fighter wing equivalents.

[SSN558]

Certain members of RED China's military may be tempted to make agressive moves against Taiwan, but I doubt if they will because the timing is bad for them. They are going to be preoccupied watching all their exported military hardware get blown to pieces in Iraq, on the road of death. Also, they will be on alert watching U.S. aircraft taking off from some bases located within striking distance of their borders.

A $4 billion military hardware package was recently approved for sale to Taiwan and this changes the dynamics of China's plans for expanionism. They have changed their whole tone since the adults took over in Washington.

[judicial meanz]

reading this excellent post and well informed comments, I wonder if the beginning of a trend is emerging in our war.

Strategic missiles have advantages, and the three to four year window discussed is not just speculation. China will lose that advantage in the future, so this isnt a joke to think they would be exploiting any US commitment in the Middle East to invade Taiwan.
Couple that with tons of prepositioned war stocks and garrisoned troops the Chinese have been staging opposite the Taiwan Straits, and a massive shipbuilding program mostly focused on submarines and the ability to project seapower, and we are beginning to see our next enemy emerge.
Then add the strategic partnerships China has in the middle east, as well as its friendly stance towards the islmists, and the formula is there for some real problems.

Its time our leaders wake up and smell that coffee!

[11B3]

Granted, the things you say are correct - from our point of view. However, the arrogance of the ChiComs is only exceeded by their miscalculations regarding either the US or Russia's reaction to any given scenario. They feel that they are 'the nation of destiny', and hence invincible. Yeah, I know that these moves would be suicidal in our eyes. They aren't in theirs, really - we're just barbarians to them (even though the reverse is the case).

This arrogance is also why they are paying OBL & the rest of the Islamonazis to try their hand at taking us down - so they don't have to do the 'dirty work'. The Chinese know they can't succeed, but they assumed it would take us down a notch or two rather than unite us. They know that we will beat Islam, which will in turn take away one of China's threats to their west in the long run. Two birds with one stone in their estimation. It fits their ways perfectly. Notice, for instance, that the Chinese have had no major attacks while we and Russia have had our share. The Chinese don't give a damn about the 'terrorist threat' because it doesn't even exist there - the employees aren't after their bosses.

I guess my main point is that China is a loose cannon at this time due to their feelings of invincibility. That makes them dangerous out of sheer recklessness if nothing else, while at the same time they are trying everything that they can imagine to use against us in their asymmetrical warfare. They're like rust (or liberals) - they never sleep.

[formosaplastics]

Every day that goes by, Taiwan is becoming more economically dependent on China. Secondly, in democracies like Taiwan, the USA, etc., money is the source of political power.

[Squantos]

Somebody read yer book Bro !

Stay Safe !

[Southack]

You're smoking crack!

The question isn't "Will China invade Taiwan", but rather, "Will India reclaim Kashmir from China and Pakistan".

China has lost its last two ground wars (to India circa 1961 and to Vietnam in 1979) and has no troop landing craft. Since the Taiwanese Straight is 50 miles of killing fields for shooting up hardened military transport landing craft, an invasion would be pretty stupid. Especially an invasion without air superiority. Chinese jet fighter pilots tend to crash their lousy F-7's and F-8's when they go up against unarmed American propeller aircraft like EP-3's, much less the F-16's that Taiwan fields in its modern air force. So it's pretty safe to say that China isn't going to have air superiority over any invasion force in the Straight.

But if they did try it, while their air force, army, and navy was tied up fighting for an island on one side of the world, on the other side of the world you'd see nuclear-power India's multi-million man army retake Kashmir.

Oh yeah, that'd just be brilliant! < /MOCKING >

[The Pheonix]

The reunification will be achieved thru economics

Taiwan will be simply sucked into the gigantic Chinese economy---the TW have NO other choice

[Jeff Head]

I believe it it a possibility, but would not occur unless they used the N. Koreans in a massive invasion of S. Korea first ... to further distract and split our forces. Then the attack on Taiwan would occur as a much larger effort in all of the Pacific Rim.

They will not do that until they feel they are absolutely ready economically and militarily ... but I believe they have plans to do so. It is what my series is all about.

THE DRAGON'S FURY SERIES

... and 11B3, in that tale, Siberia is a critical component of the ChiComm plan.

Regards.

[The Pheonix]

absolutely correct

Business Week, Dec. 8, 2002 issue, article entitled, "Greater China, ---the Mainland is absorbing the economies of HK and Taiwan faster than you think. How will this new superpower affect the World? "

The article said it is about "how leaders from the mainland, HK, and TW are creating an integratd powerhouse"

Described how Taiwanese businesses are rushing to invest mega, mega projects in the ML, and how 500000 TW together with their families had already relocated to live , work and do busness on the ML. Even TW students by the tens of 1000s are studying in Chinese universities.

[u-89]

China has no foreseeable need to invade Taiwan. Based on the experience of Hong Kong, we can soon expect the Aegis cruisers we are selling the Taiwanese to eventually and peacefully become the backbone of the Chicom Navy.

I agree with you. The Chinese understand that time is on their side. Any large military actions could be set backs and are therefore unwise as they are not necessary. Probably with time a lot more than Taiwan will be absorbed or come under their influence too. They are on the rise and perhaps rightly see their rivals taking themselves out through over extension, decadence and fisical irresponsiblity. The pendulum is swinging their way no need to rush it.