Another October Surprise? The Democrats would love the Iranians to pull off their own October Surprise this year.

American Thinker ^ | 24 Oct, 2026 | Kenneth R. Timmerman

[MtnClimber]

The Democrats first invented the term “October Surprise” in 1980, to describe what they claimed were secret efforts by the Reagan campaign to delay the release of our hostages in Tehran until after that year’s presidential election.

Depending on the version you read, the negotiations with Iranian intermediaries were conducted by vice-presidential nominee George H.W. Bush or by Reagan’s campaign manager and future CIA Director, Bill Casey.

Abolhassan Banisadr, who was Khomeini’s spokesman during his brief exile in France and later became the Islamic Republic’s first president until he broke with Khomeini in June 1981, was absolutely convinced the October Surprise was real. But neither he, nor Democrat conspiracy-theorists such as Gary Sick, were ever able to prove it.

I interviewed most of the alleged co-conspirators as a young journalist in Paris in the mid-1980s, and I can tell you definitively: it never happened.

But that hasn’t stopped the Democrats from believing it was true in 1980, and continuing to attempt their own October Surprise against Republican presidents ever since.

President Trump this week accused Iran of “making up fake hits, mines, and everything else” in an effort to drive up the price of oil before the midterms.

And they have had some success, with the price of Brent crude briefly spiking to $116/barrel and West Texas crude topping $102, primarily because of supply bottlenecks in Asian markets.

The job of Republicans and the President is to convince Americans that high gas prices are a small price to pay for preventing a nuclear-armed Iran with missiles pointed at us and at Israel.

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TOPICS: Society
KEYWORDS: datarepublican; elections; kentimmerman

[MtnClimber]

They are running out of time.

[Alberta's Child]

The job of Republicans and the President is to convince Americans that high gas prices are a small price to pay for preventing a nuclear-armed Iran with missiles pointed at us and at Israel.

This is a hopeless task for a guy who campaigned for years on a promise to avoid stupid wars in Middle East sh!tholes, and who was bragging at his 2026 State of the Union address — literally DAYS before he started this fiasco with Iran — about how low fuel prices had gotten since the start of his second term.

And Republicans in Congress have said almost nothing about this because they know damn well that their constituents ain’t buying the bullsh!t.

[PGalt]

Uncivilized POS criminals and jihadis are good at surprise attacks. They pre-meditate the most opportune times.

[oldtech]

Leave it to a Dem to screw up the works.

[Bernard]

President Trump did not start a war with Iran - he started shooting back, after 47 years of them shooting at us through terror attacks and indirect client funding. Along with Obama and Biden providing direct funding to accompany the funding provided by Iranian oil sales.

[oldtech]

Leave it to a Dem to screw up the works.

[Alberta's Child]

This guy should have listened to himself:

Sincerely,

Millions of Trump Voters

[bicyclerepair]

Ditto

[Dr. Franklin]

Depending on the version you read, the negotiations with Iranian intermediaries were conducted by vice-presidential nominee George H.W. Bush or by Reagan’s campaign manager and future CIA Director, Bill Casey. Abolhassan Banisadr, who was Khomeini’s spokesman during his brief exile in France and later became the Islamic Republic’s first president until he broke with Khomeini in June 1981, was absolutely convinced the October Surprise was real. But neither he, nor Democrat conspiracy-theorists such as Gary Sick, were ever able to prove it.
I interviewed most of the alleged co-conspirators as a young journalist in Paris in the mid-1980s, and I can tell you definitively: it never happened.

Qui bono? Translated, Timmerman doesn't want to believe that nice CIA men like Bush and Casey would do something like that, and well, there is no direct paper trail. Occam's razor holds true. One of the more bizarre revelations from the Iran-Contra scandal was that Robert McFarlane, President Reagan's former national security adviser, brought a key shaped chocolate cake to Tehran in 1986 while negotiating for the release of American hostages. It's more likely the Bush and Casey had always been in negotiations and deals with the Iranians. For perspective Polish and German historians have concluded that Poland's military leader Marshal Josef Pilsudski had been working the French to agree to a war to remove Hitler from power and end the German military rearmament in exchange for Poland receiving Danzig/Gdansk, then an independent city-state. Pilsudski carefully never left a paper trail so the French deny his plan to this day, while the necessity for Poland to control Gdansk has been proved by history. Pilsudski was no fool and the logic of such a plan is undeniable. The same is true of the CIA men in Gary Sick's October Surprise.

[rlmorel]

Thank God we have someone in charge who will do what is right and needed, not someone who sticks his finger in the air and prevaricates based on political expediency or “the next election”.

I saw this thread and thought how sad it is that there are actual Americans who would advocate for some terrorist activity by a terrorist nation, or some military action by Iran that would kill American military personnel in order to generate something that could defeat a good man that they hate so much.

And then I come into this thread and read your post. (Assuming you are an American ,which is debatable.)

And you are apparently a parasitical leech on Free Republic who uses this site free of charge to vent your anti-American spleen.

Pathetic and sad. You should be ashamed of yourself, but given your posting history, I expect you to double down.

[rlmorel]

Take your own advice in your tagline and leave this website you piece of crap. Just do it. For your own sanity, which is apparently precarious.

We’ll miss you.

Oh, no we won’t. Asshole.

[Alberta's Child]

Some of us have been saying for years that the U.S. has never had a compelling reason under our system of constitutional law to even have any military involvement in those Third World sh!t-holes in the first place.

There was a time when Donald Trump seemed to believe that, too.

[cowboyusa]

I know you hope we lose.

[rlmorel]

"...Some of us have been saying for years that the U.S. has never had a compelling reason under our system of constitutional law to even have any military involvement in those Third World sh!t-holes in the first place..."

And some of us have been saying for even longer than that, that people who have killed tens of thousands of people with their exported terrorism, including thousands of American citizens and military personnel with their terrorism and who have chanted incessantly for decades that they desire to murder ALL of us, should be taken seriously and dealt with in an age of nuclear weaponry.

Especially when they can put it in a containership and send it anywhere in the world. Don't think they would do it? Think that is far-fetched?

We all thought the concept of attempting to kill tens of thousands of people by hijacking jetliners and flying them into skyscrapers was far-fetched too.

When our government said 9/11 was caused by a "lack of imagination" that is precisely what they were referring to.

The lack of imagination to think there is a reservoir of hatred so deep in a country like Iran for the West that it would NEVER put a nuclear weapon in a containership and send it to Los Angeles or Baltimore.

Thank GOD we have people who take that threat seriously. I hate paying more money for gasoline to put in my car so I can drive to work or take a joy ride, but it is damn well worth it to me as an American to pay that price if it has even a chance of keeping their filthy Islamic hands off of a functional nuclear weapon.

And I have absolutely ZERO respect or consideration for anyone so stupid and short-sighted that they are going to whine about temporarily paying more for a gallon of gasoline.

I take my Free Republic tagline seriously, and am heading out now with that exact saying on a sandwich board to stand on a road for several hours, and have been doing so for the last month, because I say what I mean.

I suggest you take seriously what you say in your tagline and leave this site permanently. You aren't welcome here, except by your comrades who share the same sentiments about America that you do.

[MtnClimber]

The one thing I have seen no one consider is what kind of intel may exist that made taking out Iran’s nuclear program suddenly so urgent. Is it possible that Israel has sources inside the nuclear program that revealed that they got the go signal to complete enrichment and construct some nukes as soon as possible for delivery to Israel, Europe and/or the USA?

[PghBaldy]

Reasonable question.

[Señor Presidente]

Thank God we have someone in charge who will do what is right and needed

You are right.

As the prior response noted, Trump did not "start" the war-- he started shooting back. Several thousand Americans injured or killed since hostilities began in the late 70s/early 80s. Every feckless response since then has allowed Iran to continue its quest for nukes. When it acquires them, and can place them on medium range missiles, what will they do? What will happen to the global price of oil if Iran decides to turn the Strait of Hormuz into glass?

Trump campaigned against useless wars and incompetent fighting. Not against engagement in important wars.

The current conflict has driven up the global price of oil. The distinction many voters will fail to make is that prices are up "temporarily" as the result of an important foreign policy goal.

The price of oil and gasoline was high under Obama and Biden largely by choice-- either self-imposed regulation and reduction of supply, or inept foreign policy. Obama and his ilk wanted gas prices to "necessarily skyrocket" to choke off the evil progress of American capitalism whilst saving us from climate change.

Trump, on the other hand, will allow the short-term suffering for the long-term goals of American security and price stability. Huge difference.

[Alberta's Child]

I suggest you take seriously what you say in your tagline and leave this site permanently. You aren't welcome here, except by your comrades who share the same sentiments about America that you do.

The first time I heard this sh!t from another Freeper was more than 20 years ago. This website lost many good Freepers who were banished or self-exiled from 2003-2006 because they had the audacity to call out George W. Bush as a retarded baboon -- over the same stupid Middle East bullsh!t.

Now look at what this place has become -- an echo chamber for geriatric parrots who have chased all the paying customers away.

I hope it was worth it.

[Alberta's Child]

Why would anybody believe that, even if it turned out to be true?

"Intel" doesn't exist to protect the nation. It exists to promote propaganda to support a political agenda that isn't yours.

After everything we've learned in the last ten years, it's kind of baffling that anyone on this website would believe anything an intelligence agency has to say about anything.