Posted on 10/05/2026 3:18:37 PM PDT by sopo
The battle to control the House of Representatives has become more competitive, as the Democratic Party’s lead over Republicans has decreased for the second week in a row.
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Email The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 44% would vote for the Republican. Four percent (4%) say they would vote for some other candidate and another four percent (4%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
The net advantage for Democrats has decreased since last week, when they led by five points, 48% to 43%.
The week before that, Democrats led by eight points. The position for Republicans is now a net six points worse than before the November 2024 election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority.
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The survey of 1,794 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on September 24 and 27-30, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
The Democrats’ lead is due to a nine-point margin among independents. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Democrats would vote for their own party’s candidate in the next congressional elections, compared to 89% of Republicans who would vote for the GOP candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 42% would vote for Democrats and 33% for Republicans, while 12% say they would vote for third-party congressional candidates and 13% are undecided.
The “gender gap” is a net eight points. Women voters prefer Democrats by a 48% to 42% margin, while men favor Republicans, 47% to 45%.
Forty-four percent (44%) of whites, 70% of black voters, 42% of Hispanics and 31% of other minorities would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 48% of whites, 16% of black voters, 50% of Hispanics and 45% of other minorities would vote Republican.
Democrats lead by 22 points, 54% to 32%, among voters under 30, while Republicans have a 10-point lead, 53% to 43%, among those 65 and older.
Ninety-five percent (95%) of self-identified Very Liberal voters favor Democrats, while 79% of Very Conservative voters would vote Republican. Among moderate voters, Democrats lead by 40 points, 62% to 22%.
Eighty-five percent (85%) of those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 84% of Donald Trump supporters would vote Republican.
Left-wing commentator Hasan Piker isn’t familiar to many voters, but his support of the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas is overwhelmingly rejected.
Democrat state Rep. Josh Turek maintains a four-point lead over U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson in the race to fill the Iowa Senate seat vacated by the retirement of Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
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Jim
Knee-jerk reaction. There have been so many polls over the years that favor Democrats. Then, mysteriously, the race “tightens up” at the las minute. I ignore the polls. (Yet, here I am, responding).
I agree. Republicans, don’t answer the phone. When the spam filter says political call.
Remove California, New York and Illinois and I’ll bet it is completely reversed.
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2107165960671252897
Interactive Poll with Republican lead among Hispanics
So where’s the other 9%?
WOW this is weird considering CBS News says that Dems will take 229 seats to Republicans 206..NO WAY is that possible if they only lead by 3 in the generic ballot its impossible. Also the fact that the Minnesota Senate Race is within a point or two again no way is a blue tsunami possible..doesnt mean they wont win the house they will but hopefully it will be by a super small margin
Well, I’m sure the Democrats will get a boost since the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has come out in their support.
Rasmussen , ROFL
“HERE WE GO AGAIN: 93% of Senate Polls in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio Overstate Democrat Voters — Average Miss of 6.2 Points Just 33 Days Before Election!”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2026/10/here-we-go-again-93-senate-polls-iowa/
That would be a great endorsement for GOP to highlight, along with NYT, PBS endorsements while machineguns play softly in he background
I’ll remember to invite you to eat crow.
POLLS ARE ALL OVER YHE PLACE🙏🙏
Total BS
“The net advantage for Democrats” is that they have a ground game that gets out a large TURNOUT of their voters.
Republicans, and especially MAGA, are expected to have a very low turnout.... as they did in the primaries. MAGA has no ground game to get out the vote.
Here in GA Faith&Freedom and Students for Life have small ground games. But they are not MAGA. They are pre-MAGA going back to 1994.
R Gov candidate Jackson is inheriting/buying much of the Kemp ground game. Kemp was not very MAGA. Jackson did a Rubio and much of GA MAGA still has not accepted the concept of a coalition.
No ground game in 2026, no turnout; No turnout, no win in 2026.
RE: Democrats 47, Republicans 44
What about the other 9%
https://pollingsource.com/pollsters/2024
Rasmussen beat most of your faves in 2024, so don’t roll down the basement steps
The democrats aren’t going to win much in the midterms. Two slight majorities in either House is about the best they can hope for.
The last thing Jeffries & Schumer want is huge majorities, where the democrat socialists gaining power will be expecting big changes to our political & economic system.
With a blue wave they’ll be under heat for radical changes. Changes that they and their donors don’t want. However, with a slim majority or minority position in the House & Senate, means both Jeffries & Schumer can continue on as Congressional leaders & democrat ‘bagmen’ for Wall Street.
do your best to keep your chin up, but rearrange your bets on Polymarket
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