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Posted on 07/23/2026 9:11:54 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
Mortgage rates continued their ascent this week, climbing to a new 11-month high, as the escalating conflict in the Middle East put upward pressure on oil prices, sparking renewed inflation fears and leading investors to reassess the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
The average rate on 30-year fixed home loans reached 6.58% for the week ending July 23, up 3 basis points from 6.55% the previous week and the highest since early August 2025, according to Freddie Mac. For perspective, rates averaged 6.74% during the same period in 2025.
"The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.58% this week," says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist. "As market conditions continue to evolve, borrowers should remember that shopping around for a mortgage rate can make a meaningful difference, potentially saving them thousands over the loan’s lifetime."
Although last week’s cooler-than-anticipated CPI report showing headline inflation retreating to 3.5% in June injected some optimism into the market, the intensifying U.S.-Iran war is threatening to erase those gains as the price of oil topped $100 a barrel on Thursday.
Brent crude, the top global benchmark, crossed into the triple digits after the Houthis, Yemen's militant group backed by Iran, claimed to have attacked two oil tankers in the Red Sea.
According to Realtor.com® economist Jiayi Xu, these developments could once again add upward pressure on inflation, making a rate cut at next week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMc) nearly impossible.
"Driven by the rising energy prices, we may see a higher headline inflation reading in the coming month," warns Xu.
However, she points out the the key metric to watch is core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. If core CPI does not follow the headline number higher, that could offer some relief and potentially keep the Federal Reserve from implementing a rate hike.
Financial markets now put the probability of the central bank's policymakers increasing the federal funds rate from its current 3.5%-3.75% range to 3.75%-4% at 37.9%, according to CME FedWatch.
For the housing market, the ongoing geopolitical and economic volatility raises the question: can the momentum of the most buyer-friendly spring market in recent years carry into summer?
Xu points out that while the uncertainty bred by the conflict is not helping matters, recent Realtor.com data indicates that so far it has not meaningfully impacted real estate transactions.
Pending home sales have risen for seven consecutive months and delistings and contract cancellation rates remain below year-ago levels.
"Together, these figures point to a market where buyers and sellers are staying engaged and adjusting to get deals done—a marked contrast to last summer, when the market stalled out," notes the economist.
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Accomplishing the former hasn't brought us closer to accomplishing the latter.
We need lower interest rates for housing - and get the PE vultures out of buying housing.
“...the escalating conflict in the Middle East put upward pressure on oil prices...”
And I don’t understand why. When oil movement through the straits was slowed they all came here to fill up the ships. We got the revenue that was created. So why are we paying the price? Greed by the oil companies and foreign countries.
wy69
brent holding steady at $100 ...
This is getting old fast.
I broke my foot-because the Iran (so called) war.
The weather is bad- Because the Iran War.
Inflation is rising- Because the Iran War.
Cats and Dogs living together- Because the Iran War.
And on and on.
Put a 90 day freeze on all fuel prices. And freeze all exports of US oil.
Please explain the causal link between oil prices and mortgage rates...or is this just a way for realtors to put the blame where their political bias says to put it?
Brilliant! The last clown that did this was Nixon, and the result was waiting lines at gas stations that went around the block. People were paying teenagers to sit in the cars overnight in NJ it was so bad.
Quote: Please explain the causal link between oil prices and mortgage rates...or is this just a way for realtors to put the blame where their political bias says to put it?”
Funny, when oil prices were moving downward last year, as was the price of gas, the mortgage rates held steady.
But hey, you can blame anything on the Iran War these days.
> Put a 90 day freeze on all fuel prices. <
Yikes. Just say no to a top-down, command economy.
You’re confused.
Realtors have no vote in Fed proceedings. They get no credit for lower rates (which they want) or blame for higher rates (which they don’t want.)
The causal link is simple, and is mentioned in the article. Higher fuel costs mean higher inflation. If WTI were to return pre-conflict levels ($69.50 per barrel,) the Fed would have breathing room. As an investor and trader, I don’t think we’ll see those levels again for the foreseeable future barring a recession.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/uso
Here is a little better place to check.
This is the actual price that is paid.
What the MSM is advertising and quote, is the futures market primarily.
For low information voters, Trump/Republican Congress.
It must be very tough for Boomers sitting in their 2nd or 3rd vacation home having to listen to young people complain how the are struggling due to gas prices and the cost of living.
It’s worse than that. Before the war, my Vente White Mocha at Starbucks was 7 dollars, now it’s 9 dollars. End the war! Bring the troops home! 😤
Do you think the Iranians aren't trying to get a nuke? Do you think they are too stupid to enrich uranium to weapons grade with all the centrifuges and tech they've purchased? Do you think they're not as smart as Indians or Pakistanis - both of whom have nukes? Do you think the radical jihadies wouldn't kill you and your family without hesitation?
Why do you think that Iran has and continues to develop all the ballistic missiles they have (not to mention drone technology)? What part of hitting Diego Garcia over 2300 miles away isn't concerning?
In all honesty, the reason this threat still exists is because too many Americans were fine with kicking the can down the road - as long as their personal life wasn't affected in the short term. I highly doubt many of these people would have risked their lives or their possessions when the call to the American Revolution was made. Most Presidents over the last almost 5 decades have done nothing while this radical ideology of oppression and death was strengthening itself. They ignored the threats of ‘Death to America’, and ‘Death to Israel’.
If we don't take this to its best conclusion our children and families, yours and mine, will pay the consequences. My life isn't important enough to let that happen.
Sometimes freedom has to be defended. Sometimes the defenseless (like all those who have been killed for protesting inside Iran) have to be defended. Sometimes short-term sacrifice - like paying more for gas temporarily, is an inconvenient price that has to be paid. If you think Iran is an innocuous ‘leave us alone and we'll leave you alone’ player in the world you are sadly deceived.
Brent cude is at 100 right now, the main crude oil price is at 92 right now.
As usual the media panics.
-SB
“So what exactly is your solution? What would you have done with the intel Trump had and has?”
Not my job.
As I’ve said many times, this Administration has yet to tell the American people what the imminent threat was that required immediate action. We were told that Midnight Hammer “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities in June of last year. Whatever new information came to our intelligence services certainly isn’t a secret to the enemy so there is no reason to cloak it from Americans.
And no, the refrain that we’ve been at war 47 years doesn’t speak to an imminent threat.
Speaking of intelligence, it is MINDBOGGLING that the closing of the Hormuz Strait and the attacks on our Gulf allies were not anticipated and prepared for.
Last, I would add that if this war was existentially necessary as you believe, I think the marketing of it has been spectacularly inept.
Wartime leaders like Lincoln and Churchill didn’t repeatedly declare victory when the outcome had not been achieved. On the contrary, they unambiguously acknowledged the sacrifices that would have to be made.
The war began on February 28. President Trump declared victory on March 10. The American people have a right to think that they were misled.
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