SpaceX IPO

X ^ | June 11, 2026 | Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt)

[ProtectOurFreedom]

If you submitted an indication of interest for SpaceX IPO shares, you will need to confirm your indication of interest after the IPO has officially been priced, which is currently expected tomorrow evening (June 11th). Confirming an indication changes your indication to an order to buy shares at the offer price that SpaceX sets.

Keep in mind that you will have a short window of time to confirm your indication of interest. Some participating brokerages are saying that public the window may open late in the evening and close as early as 7 AM ET the following morning (June 12). Brokerages should notify you once the window opens with time-sensitive instructions on how to affirm your conditional offer. If you fail to confirm your indication of interest, you will not be allocated any IPO shares. Make sure your account is fully funded so you can purchase the shares you are allocated.

You will find out how many IPO shares you have been allocated (if any) the morning of June 12th before the market opens at 9:30 AM ET.

NOTE: Exact timing could change for any of these things, so just keep an eye out for an alerts, notifications or emails from your brokerage.

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Worth noting that E*TRADE users won’t need to confirm, and the same goes for Robinhood users (unless the final IPO price is more than 20% above or below the $135 price), but Schwab, Fidelity and SoFi users will need to. Again, just check with your brokerage.

E*TRADE’s process:

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TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: buyandhold; elonmusk; investing; investment; ipo; spacex; tesla; xai

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Same here. Decades at Morgan Stanley. We’ve had the same great top-rated advisors on the West Coast all that time. One is on the investment side and his partner is on the personal management side. Our investments here in Silicon Valley absolutely pale compared to the high-wealth people here, but I still get time with our advisors.

[captmar-vell]

I have Fidelity and Schwab, using Schwab this time.

I’m not sure what methodology their allotment algorithm is using, but it will be very limited. Shares at the IPO price should be a good buy in, although what happens tomorrow and then after the various staggered lockup periods end is anyone’s guess.

Long term a good buy and hold.

[bankwalker]

it depends on the price action in the first hour or two. I’ll short when it stalls, when it breaks below 1-minute VWAP. With the Facebook IPO I shorted about 10 AM, but each one is unique. I usually avoid IPOs altogether unless there is excessive hype. This one certainly qualifies.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

"Long term a good buy and hold."

Agreed. What that company has accomplished in so many areas is just incredible. I honestly believed that spaceflight would always be in the purview of governments and there was no room for a private spaceflight company. And it's not just the short-term play of launching satellites. It's the whole idea of AI data centers in space, reusable heavy-lift rockets, frequent launches and, beyond that, the Kardashev vision (named after Soviet astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev). That vision centers on using it as a framework for humanity's energy future. Here are his key points:

Solar Energy Dominance

Musk argues that "once you understand the Kardashev Scale, it becomes utterly obvious that essentially all energy generation will be solar." He frequently emphasizes that this framework makes clear why renewable energy, particularly solar, must become humanity's primary energy source. And you cannot build enough solar on earth due to atmospheric losses, cloud losses, nighttime, dirt, etc.

Type II Civilization as a Goal

Musk has expressed a vision of "humanity becoming a Kardashev II-level civilization – one that can harness the Sun's full power." He notes that progressing along the Kardashev Scale would increase energy harnessed on Earth a hundredfold (mostly solar), and then "perhaps a billionfold" at Kardashev II with space-based solar power.

Practical Application

Rather than treating it as abstract theory, Musk has recently proposed through SpaceX the launch of up to one million solar-powered satellites into low-Earth orbit, framing this as a step toward the Kardashev II vision.

His Core Argument

Musk uses the scale to support his position that solar energy isn't just one option among many—it's mathematically inevitable as civilizations advance and need to harness greater quantities of energy.

His interviews on this subject are most fascinating. I spent most of my career in the energy industry and to hear this just blows me away. I was immersed in the day-to-day jobs of building and starting up power plants, working with utilities, and researching advanced power generation technologies. Nobody ever thought at this scale before and I worked with a lot of the biggest thinkers in energy.

[srmanuel]

My hope is that Fidelity is one of the underwriters of the IPO and I’ve been a customer of Fidelity for over 40 years, hopefully that means something.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Good luck. 1-minute VWAP on day-1 IPO stock is extremely noisy—lots of false breaks. “Breaking below VWAP” happens fast—do you have a filled short before the bounce? On an IPO, you’re essentially trading noise during the first hours/days.

Your bet against the initial IPO hype once momentum breaks is a reasonable thesis, but in an unforgiving environment.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Ditto.

[srmanuel]

Yes, I’m looking to buy and hold for at least 10 years, then make a decision.

I read somewhere that someone who invested $1000 with Tesla at the IPO, it’s now worth $385,000.

The way I’m looking at it is, if SpaceX goes to Zero it’s not catastrophic but if the stock performs anywhere near Tesla, then retirement got a whole easier and my heirs will be very happy.

[montag813]

Don’t EVER buy in IPO on day 1. It is ridiculously foolish. Ask your fave AI if you need a history lesson. You always get a chance to buy lower when it dips. Facebook and Palantir followed this pattern to a T.

[captmar-vell]

If someone had suggested something like Starlink even in 2010 it would’ve sounded pie-in-the-sky.

Tesla being added down the road is very likely imo.

And Starship just needs its reusability sorted. 200+ tons later on.

I’ll also be very interested if there are any coming moves into quantum.

[pingman]

Hunny and I got in at Etrade, in our Roth-IRA accounts. Now, we wait & see.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Strictly speaking, you are right, of course:

The evidence against buying hot IPOs on day one:

• IPO pop volatility: Hot IPOs often surge immediately due to scarcity and hype, then contract sharply within days or weeks once lockup periods end and the initial demand settles
• First-day premium: You're paying at the peak of excitement, not fundamental value. That "pop" is already priced in
• Information asymmetry: Institutional investors and insiders have better data than day-one retail buyers
• Lockup expiration: Existing shareholders (employees, VCs, founders) can sell after ~180 days, flooding supply
• Overpricing signal: Aggressive underpricing to generate hype (to boost trading volume and fees) is often a sign the company itself isn't compelling enough on fundamentals

The rare case where it might make sense:

• You're buying a fundamentally strong company you'd hold long-term anyway, treating the IPO event as incidental
• You have conviction about the underlying business, not the trading momentum
• You're dollar-cost averaging in rather than buying the full amount on day one

What research shows:

Studies on IPO returns generally find that investors who buy on the first day and hold tend to underperform the market. The best returns often go to those who buy 6-12 months after the IPO, once hype settles and fundamentals reassert.

The behavioral reality:

Day-one IPO buying is often driven by FOMO and media hype, not analysis. The people making money from hot IPOs are usually the underwriters and institutions with allocation priority, not retail day traders.

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But my motivation here is slightly different. I want to gift a share each to kids (3), SIL/DIL (2) and grandkid (1, 7 months old). My goals are:

• Create a family tracking ritual: Quarterly email or Thanksgiving dinner check-in on SpaceX milestones—next Starship test, earnings, Starlink subscriber growth. Make them participants in watching the business, not just shareholders.
• Let them see volatility: the share price will swing. Use those swings to teach about market noise vs. business fundamentals. Teach them to ignore the noise and stay in for the long-haul. That's the real lesson.

Only the SIL is interested in investing and he is too faddish. You could argue that SpaceX is the ultimate fad, but their accomplishments are astonishing, doing what no other company has done (including the big Boeing flop that may cause them to exit space entirely). The fundamentals are sound and exciting.

My purchase falls 100% into the "Rare Case" described above. Company with strong fundamentals, conviction about the business, and dollar-cost averaging. One share to each kid/grandkid is really nothing more than a Day One memento, a "Grandpa was there and did this for me" keepsake.

I can buy on dips and gift them more shares.

[oil_dude]

“Hunny and I got in at Etrade, in our Roth-IRA accounts. Now, we wait & see.”

stock losses in Roth IRA are not deductible on tax return

[roadcat]

The way I’m looking at it is, if SpaceX goes to Zero it’s not catastrophic but if the stock performs anywhere near Tesla, then retirement got a whole easier and my heirs will be very happy.

SPCX will not go to Zero! The IPO reason is for Musk to raise capital to create more growth for SPCX. It is a decade ahead of the big competitors. I put in a large order with my broker, as I am in for the long term investment.

Having said that, there will be many dips in value post-IPO, as pre-IPO stock holders sell when their stocks unlock. If you need to get SPCX stock but don't want to lose money, then wait for the many dips. Also, TSLA is in a dip position now, buy that on the dip and make money on the future merger with SPCX. SPCX IPO stock is not a good bet for the short term, as capital gains will destroy any profits from selling. I bought TSLA years ago, and it has made huge gains. I expect the same for SPCX over the long term.

[captmar-vell]

Best wishes to you both on the allocation. Don’t have long to wait now.

[BereanBrain]

it’s ~ 4x oversubscribed at the moment, so, expect to get 1/4 of the shares you asked for (if you are treated equitably, which Fidelity is NOT known for). I too, have been with Fidelity for decades. They always make some $ on you on the trade (you never seem to buy at the market they always seem to “miss” the window). You know they are batching and making margin on the trades.

[going hot]

affirmed. now we wait to see if the order fills completely. I guess that will be tomoorow am?

[captmar-vell]

Thanks for the update, I just now checked and affirmed.

We should be good, but its not official until you see SPCX in your Account Position Details with QTY. Good luck.