it depends on the price action in the first hour or two. I’ll short when it stalls, when it breaks below 1-minute VWAP. With the Facebook IPO I shorted about 10 AM, but each one is unique. I usually avoid IPOs altogether unless there is excessive hype. This one certainly qualifies.
Good luck. 1-minute VWAP on day-1 IPO stock is extremely noisy—lots of false breaks. “Breaking below VWAP” happens fast—do you have a filled short before the bounce? On an IPO, you’re essentially trading noise during the first hours/days.
Your bet against the initial IPO hype once momentum breaks is a reasonable thesis, but in an unforgiving environment.