Posted on 05/31/2026 9:20:57 AM PDT by MtnClimber
If the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz is a game of chicken, it sounds as though the Iranians will either swerve first – or accelerate. One way or the other, though, the blockade appears to have succeeded in bringing the regime to its crisis point. As discussions around a potential deal (really a pre-deal) continue, the IRGC has begun to demand an end to the US Navy's complete siege on Iranian ports.
That message has come from the top of the food chain today, including the Nepo Babytollah's supposed attaché: [X links at source article]
The "direct action" threat comes with a promise of "utter ruin" as a result:
Iranian officials have used the negotiations to project confidence that they retain significant military options should diplomacy fail. The Revolutionary Guards said any renewed conflict would spread “far beyond the region,” threatening “crushing blows” and “utter ruin” in places opponents “cannot even imagine.”
The warnings come after a war that saw Iran target US bases, Israeli cities and critical infrastructure in Gulf Arab states, while effectively shutting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and triggering a global energy shock.
Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that any future retaliation would “feature many more surprises,” while Iran’s military threatened to open “new fronts” using “new tools.” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s top negotiator, said the armed forces had used the ceasefire period to rebuild their capabilities “at the highest level.”
Experts say much of the rhetoric is intended to deter further attacks. But they also warn that Tehran retains significant escalation options should diplomacy collapse.
"Experts say" a lot of things, but this is probably correct. The Iranian regime has not exhibited any restraint in its missile and drone attacks in this conflict or in others. They have aimed at practically every Gulf state, including relatively friendly countries such as Qatar and Oman, targeting their energy production infrastructure. The IRGC has sent volleys of ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv and other places in Israel. At the same time, however, the US and Israel destroyed their military-industrial infrastructure on multiple levels. If the Iranians had more gas in the tank for deterrent strategies and tactics, the IRGC would have used them already.
That's not to say that the Iranian regime can't inflict damage. They still have drones and missiles in their inventories, but they lack the industrial capacity to replace them now. Their blue-water navy is gone, and the US is taking out their littoral navy when the IRGC sends those boats into the Strait of Hormuz to harass shipping. This threat isn't exacty empty, but it's entirely insufficient to deter hostilities if the IRGC won't make a deal. To extend the "chicken" analogy," they're pitting a Peugeot against a Peterbilt. In that kind of matchup, it doesn't matter whether Iran accelerates or not – they're going to lose if they push it to a collision.
Vahidi wants to use these threats to force the US into more concessions. It's the Tehran Two-Step, related closely to the Hamas Hokey Pokey, both of which are based on the concept of the hudna. The dance goes like this: Take one step toward your negotiating partner, and when he takes a step toward you, take two steps back and wait for him to come to you. It only works, though, when your partner wants to dance with you and thinks the dance is good enough. That has been the case with the West when it comes to the Iranian regime for the past 47 years.
Is it good enough for Donald Trump, though? That has been the question since the ceasefire, and both his critics and supporters wonder about it. Trump warned in a Truth Social statement this morning that he won't sign a deal without verifiable compliance by Iran on both the Strait and ending nuclear weapons development. His decision will come soon, Trump declared, but he's not going to let Iran off the hook:
Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated (we have removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers. Iran will complete the immediate removal and/or detonation of any mines that are left, which will not be many!). Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of “heading home!” Say HELLO to your wives, husbands, parents, and families from me, your favorite President! The enriched material, sometimes referred to as “Nuclear Dust,” which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to. I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
The part about no money being exchanged is significant, Axios' Barak Ravid notes:
The MOU states that Iran will agree to negotiate on its nuclear program, but does not include specific concessions. ...
- U.S. officials say they have verbal commitments from the Iranians on the nuclear material, but that what matters is what is agreed when the sides get in the room for the formal negotiations.
- Trump claimed "no money will be exchanged, until further notice," referring to Iran's frozen funds in accounts around the world.
Even if Trump accepts this MOU, it may not end the game of chicken. The IRGC violated the current ceasefire within 48 hours by threatening traffic through the Strait, which prompted the full blockade by the US Navy that remains in place today. The Iranians are still demanding control of the Strait, which both the ceasefire and the MOU rejected. The Iranians will do what Hamas and Hezbollah have done for decades – sign the agreement, claim it meant something else, then refuse to comply when it comes time to disarm or withdraw. That's exactly what is happening in Gaza and Lebanon at this very moment.
Maybe Trump will sign the MOU and let Iran violate the terms first as a justification for what comes next. Or perhaps he might just stick with the blockade and let the economic collapse take place over the next several weeks, either forcing the IRGC to surrender on Trump's terms or restart the war and give him the political opening at home and in the Gulf for full-scale strikes on what remains of Iran's energy and transportation infrastructure. The blockade is clearly working to force the arrival of a decision point, and maybe Trump will be inclined to let it ride.
We buried their nuke stuff last year but already by now they’re rebuilt. We learned the only way to stop them is to take everything.
And in addition to rebuilding their nuke stuff they ramped up their missile production to the point that if we hadn’t attacked when we did they’d have had so many missiles that nobody would dare to attack them AT ALL. We’re having a tough enough time with the missiles/launchers they already have; if they had double this amount it would be impossible to take them on.
And there’s one other reason for doing it right now: because we have a POTUS who cares more about securing the future for his and my grandkids than he does about being popular with a media and leftists who will always hate him anyway. God saved Donald Trump for a reason. I think he knows that.
Now that we’ve seized the last opportunity we had (because of their missile production - which CAN reach Europe and is working towards reaching the US as well), the only way the Strait can be secure is to get rid of the IRGC. Getting rid of the IRGC and her proxies would create a never-before-seen chance at peace in the Middle East. A chance to end the “forever war”. Trump wants to get all of the Middle East to invest in creating a prosperous Gaza, but it would be foolish to invest in that if it’s going to be blown to bits by Hezbollah, Hamas, & the Houthis - all branches of Iran’s IRGC.
The use of the word “imminent” is part of the world’s red herring game. By the time a threat is “imminent” it is too late. Submitting to a requirement that the threat is imminent means you have signed on to a suicide pact. That’s not gonna happen on Trump’s watch. Thank God!
Faulty logic. The country wouldn’t call for that action unless a) they knew the reality of the threat; b) they cared more about existing than about “getting Trump”; and c) there was not a more efficient way to win (which there is: suffocating them financially so they fall from within, as Trump is doing right now).
Right now we’ve reduced by 90% their ability to strike, and yet some “experts” are saying they have too many missiles, we can never finish off their capability totally. If they had double the missiles they had when we started this, there would have been no way to stop them from WHATEVER they wanted to do. And their rebuilding of nuclear capabilities in this last year, combined with their willingness to watch the country be bled to death rather than agree to give up nukes, tells us exactly what they want to do.
People will argue about whether that means “imminent threat” or not, but the fact is that if we had not acted when we did, Iran would be guaranteed nukes. And their fundamentalist Shiite religion pushes for world chaos to create the “Armageddon” that will bring back the 12th Imam.
Burying our heads in the sand just means the nuke will hit us in the butt instead of the face.
Read my posts in this thread to see why you’re not only wrong, but your words are dangerous.
The Donald is doing it through financial strangulation.
When it’s time for the Iranians to claim back their country our military (and probably the IDF as well) will provide air cover for the people against the IRGC.
It’s the only way that can work.
They built back their nuke capability, which told us that just hitting their facilities won’t do the job. That’s why we have to do what we’re doing now. We learned from our mistakes.
The “negotiations” on Feb 27 involved the Iranians bragging about having enough highly-enriched uranium to make 11 bombs - and insistence that they would never give that up. So yes, it was necessary to go to war on Feb 28th.
Unhappily they know, and we know, that Prez Trump is not going to return to bombing. Trump's 'strategy' escapes me. We totally disarm their military and then offer to 'negotiate'. 🤔❓ Negotiate what? If one of these fanatics remains alive: THEY ARE WINNING! They are going to wipe us out!
Meantime the people of America and the people of Israel bear the burden of this incomprehensible strategy. Every day Hezbollah violates the cease fire while Israel is bound by it. Nearly everyday the IRGC violates the ceasefire... while trump demonstrates his infinite patience.
Israel is dying and the American people are struggling with high fuel prices which is driving inflation back to painful levels - but Trump claims the ceasefire is holding and continues - for another 60 days - to 'negotiate' with someone - someone who cannot be identified. The midterm elections are looming and the violent Left is disrupting social order... we will give negotiations another 60 days.
I am at a complete loss. 🤷 I am wearing thin. If we had negotiated with Japan in 1945 we would all be speaking Japanese today.
Not only do I emphatically hope it, I emphatically pray it too. I’ve come to realize that the only thing that is sure in this world is God, and one way or another He will make our blunders wise for His own purposes. So I pray, and I refuse to give in to hopelessness.
I was hoping that the Immortal Guard guerrilla warfare in the boonies would provide an area in which we could do weapons drops without them falling into hostile IRGC hands. If their air defense is shot, what about delivery drones or other kind of air drop? I keep thinking we’ve got to have a way to get them the weapons & ammo they need.
I REALLY want the Iranian people - and the whole world too - to be rid of this murderous regime. Sometimes I lay awake at night praying about it cuz I just can’t sleep. And it’s always there in my mind.
While the “negotiations” take place our blockade is strangling the Iranian economy. The IRGC may think they can stall, but every day they do the noose gets tighter around their necks. When Artesh (the regular army, which has specifically been spared) realizes the IRGC will let the whole country be strangled before they would ever let go of power, they will have to choose which of their 2 oaths to try to keep: their oath to the IRGC, or their oath to the country of Iran. They can’t keep both.
Pezeshkian has torn off the mask; he has publicly resigned since the IRGC is totally in power right now. The regime has told its people they’re not supposed to say anything hostile towards each other publicly but stay united (in public, at least). They need to say that because they are fracturing because of the pressure of slowly & systematically being suffocated to death. The IRGC is trying to provoke US strikes again because they don’t fear more infrastructure damage; they fear the people, and if there is a common enemy they will unite. Trump’s patience is their worst nightmare.
They are paying Artesh a potato per day. That’s all they have. They will soon lose the mercenaries from Iraq, Afghanistan, & Pakistan because they won’t be able to pay them. They are the ones doing “morality patrols”, arresting, and having people executed. And enforcing the communications surveillance which is so essential to stifling any uprising.
The only thing standing in the way of Iran being at peace and prosperous is the IRGC. Trump is making that ABUNDANTLY CLEAR to all Iranians, but most especially to the men of Artesh, who are the only non-IRGC people who are armed.
Iran is too large, the IRGC hide amongst civilians, & they have complex underground systems in which to hide. We can’t win a ground war against them. Only the Iranians themselves can take back their country. And Mahyar Tousi who has people within Iran (including his father & sister) says that 85% of the people are against the IRGC. The only way the IRGC has maintained control is by keeping the people unarmed. Artesh is bigger than the IRGC and armed. They are the key here, and Trump’s “negotiation” is actually for their eyes only. They now know he won’t back down and neither will IRGC; their only way to save the country is to destroy the IRGC.
Pray with me that this happens - that they rise against the IRGC and eliminate the murderers who hold the whole country hostage.
My words are dangerous?
Dude your lack of intellect is seriously dangerous butterbrain.
“They built back their nuclear capability...”
We were told that their nuclear capability was DESTROYED just six months earlier
Why don’t you follow through with your idiocy and go with Trump’s preferred plan: nuke Iran now..
Sorry, but I just heard Trump say the other day, it was still buried beneath the mountain.
You’re quoting Al Jazeera?
What I know is that at the moment in the US gas is up a little bit but there are no long lines to buy gas. I was there in 1973 - I remember.
What’s going on elsewhere? Who cares!
The thing that would lose this for us and for the Iranian people is if we lose patience and snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. Your words are exactly what the IRGC is counting on, to discourage and divide Americans from a task that needs to be done. If you had read my comments as I suggested you would know this.
It has nothing to do with me or my intellect.
We underestimated their ability to build back. We’re not gonna make the same mistake again.
Trump does not want to nuke Iran. He wants to leave as much intact as possible for a free Iran. That’s why he’s going through this “negotiation”, which is just buying time for Artesh to figure out that we are a better friend to them and to the Iranian people than the IRGC is. The IRGC would destroy them all in their own suicide/murder but we want the people of Iran to be saved and the future of a non-nuclear, non-IRGC Iran to be saved.
What we hit before is still buried beneath the mountain; that’s why we’re negotiating over the “nuclear dust”.
But they rebuilt the ability to enrich.
In America citizens face choking fuel prices that are again boosting inflation. Midterm elections are looming, fraught with threats to our stability. As in Iran, Trump's enduring patience with gross criminal activities - especially connected with one political party - the feeling of frustration with lack of prosecutions is widespread. I have messaged Prez Trump and encouraged him to display a bit of humility, approach the American people with a request for patience and some hint at what his plan is. One or two presidents have done that and solidified their popular support. Trump has not chosen that path.
The only reason that the dollar is not at greater risk is because there is not another major currency in the world that is more stable.
. . . . .
I suspect that Trump's strategy is to weaken the fanatical regime to the point that a popular uprising can succeed. If so, that is a waiting game; I am not completely confident that we are not vulnerable under those circumstances. Domestic 'rebellion' is on the rise - well financed.
Our enemies multiply. It is definitely a matter of prayer. 🙏🙏🙏
Yes, it’s concerning. I think the biggest risk is if the center doesn’t hold. The leftist violence and corruption are being exposed and rejected in elections, which is a reality check for us all. The corruption prosecutions and upcoming conspiracy charges will further awaken the people, as will the Weaponization Fund.
I did see that Trump said we shouldn’t worry, that it would all work out in the end. That might be the most he can say without giving away the whole strategy
Not very comforting. I also look at Gaza and the re-capture by Hamas - also not very comforting.
I suppose that you heard that Iran has broken off all diplomatic relations with U.S. and terminated 'negotiations' ... will CLOSE the Strait of Hormuz. What will Trump do now? I am fairly sure that he WILL NOT resume the bombing. What then? We are forced into a position of more sacrifice without knowing much of anything.
Yes, Iran is hurting... Israel is hurting; America is hurting. Iran is counting on just this situation. sigh 🤷♂️
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.