Notes & statistics on Polls

self | 5/25/2026 | LS

[LS]

Hi all, Just a brief note here---I know many of you get "Today's News" which Lakeside Granny generously posts. Here are a couple of thoughts on "polls" that supposedly have Trump in low 40s or worse.

1) When the first bombing campaign on Iran began just under a year ago, several of "our" reliable pollsters went nuts. Not going to name names. I've known some of them for years, and we have been mutually supportive. But they veered far left mainly driven by animus to Israel, and it has only gotten worse. They did what they always criticized their Hoax-y competitors for doing, letting ideology drive polling. As a result, they BADLY missed the Massey primary. For now, I cannot trust them---mainly because . . .

2) Other indicators do NOT support any notion that either MAGA is "fractured" or that Trump is "unpopular." For example:

3) Voter registration #s continue to soar for Rs. Since November 2024, the GOP has net outregistered Ds by 1.3m nationally, but in addition gained on Ds or overtook them in EVERY. SINGLE. STATE. where we can track voter reg data. AZ went from R+110,000 in 2020, when Trump "lost" by 11,000, to R+324,000 and every AZ county, even deep blue Pima, have moved right. Pima lost a FULL POINT off the D lead (which was 11, now is down to just over 9); NC saw Ds, who led by 175,000 in 2020, lose their entire margin and now Rs lead by 10,000, and over 100,000 in "active voters." FL was D+ in 2016. It is now R+1.5 MILLION. By the way, GA does not register by party which always makes it tricky, but Seth Keshel, who wrote "America's War on Election Corruption," and who now has become a great proxy for those pollsters with his uber-accurate predictions (He had Massey losing "in a landslide," for ex) uses Duval Co in FL as a perfect proxy for the state of GA. Duval continues to move right. And last week's 2 GA Supe victories by Rs "seems" to confirm that; NV was D+88,000 in 2020, now is R+3,000; IA and NH have both moved a full point to the right. NM (!!) has steadily seen the D advantage fall with every report. CA saw Rs net gain 800,000; PA, which has been thorny, saw Rs slash a 1.1 MILLION D lead in 2016 down to about 170,000 in 2025. Recently Ds gained back some ground but Rs still have slashed 30,000 off the lead. Seth found that almost all of the PA gains, though, were from D city primaries; that in the last report the Ds' gains dropped from thousands back down to only 300; and that none of the key bellwether Trump flip counties, such as Northampton, have shown any D gains at all.

4) Voter reg gains are just the tip of the iceberg. Deportations have according to the Administration reached 3.5m. Of those, I think any of us would agree that at least 1 million of them were "voters" and 100% of those "voters" voted DemoKKKrat. Scratch 1m more from D ranks.

5) Voter roll purges, thanks to Tom Fitton and Judicial Watch's lawsuits, have slashed millions of dead voters (i.e., DemoKKKRats) off the rolls: 800,000 in OR; 320,000 in CO; 34,000 in NC; and while some counties are still out and/or resisting, nearly 2 MILLION in CA (see why the CA gov race is suddenly competitive?). In many of these states, such as OR, CO, and CA, those purged are overwhelmingly dead DemoKKKRat voters whose names were being used for fraud mail-in votes.

6) When all of these are combined, nationally you are looking at a NET LOSS of up to 5 MILLION net D voters.

7) Another factor that shows the polls are completely hoaxed up is Trump's astounding influence: 38-0 after Massey lost. No president in history has had that clout, let alone one with "40% approval."

8) Redistricting has added between a net of 12 and 13 additional safe R seats. I have the map at R+215 or 216 safe, meaning Rs only had to win two "tossups" or competitive seats to reach 218. My final prediction is R+222. Regardless, NEITHER party can get much more than 225 given gerrymandering. The days of a 50 seat swing are gone. That, in turn, means that EVEN if Rs were to lose the House (they won't lose the Senate), it would be such a tiny margin that on DemoKKKrat merely being out sick takes away the majority.

9) The Senate will likely be worst case Rs +52, best case Rs +55. There is a decent shot for Rogers in MI and Sununu in NH to flip seats; but MUCH more important, I think Paxon wins by 4-6 and with Letlow and Barr flips three RINO seats to MAGA. That alone is a major shift in the senate and completely negates MurCowSki and Lankford.

10) Money. Rs have more in the bank than Ds. Much more. But don't be fooled: Ds are still giving bigly to individual candidates (They learned what Rs learned in 2016 with the WinRed stuff: give to individuals or the state, not national). HOWEVER, Trump has a campaign chest of $300m and Musk has promised $50m, meaning the real R advantage in $ is four or five to one.

In short, NONE of the statistical and REAL indicators suggest that Trump's approval is what Hoax Polling says; and the DemoKKKrats are looking to fire their coach (DNC chairman Ken Martin) six months ahead of the playoffs. Nothing says winning like firing your coach.

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TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: followthemoney; polls; primaries

[LS]

You can get my "Today's News" here three days a week and you can get my political analysis on my Larry Schweikart Substack about five days a week.

[CondoleezzaProtege]

LS:

Today is Memorial Day.

President Trump, following the precedent set by President Harry Truman, asks that we devote time for prayer today for a lasting peace regardless of where you fall in partisan loyalties. I think both men see and saw more ‘polling’ than we do.

Trump has also spent personal time with the families of the fallen of Epic Fury. Let’s remember them as individuals today and their loved ones, and not as passing statistics. -

NOW, THEREFORE, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States of America, do hereby proclaim Memorial Day, May 25, 2026, as a day of prayer for permanent peace, and I designate the hour beginning in each locality at 11:00 a.m. of that day as a time when people might unite in prayer. I ask all Americans to observe the National Moment of Remembrance beginning at 3:00 p.m. local time on Memorial Day.

NOW, THEREFORE, I, HARRY S. TRUMAN, President of the United States of America, pursuant to the aforementioned resolution, do hereby proclaim Memorial Day, Tuesday, May 30, 1950, and each succeeding Memorial Day, as a day of prayer for permanent peace. And I designate the hour beginning at eleven o’clock in the morning of that day, Eastern Daylight Saving Time, as a period in which all our people may unite in prayer, each in accordance with his own religious faith, for divine aid in bringing enduring peace to a troubled world.

[usafa92]

Baris went completely nuts, he and Barnes have been off the reservation for sometime now. Mark Mitchell has returned to somewhat of a stable presence after his initial freak out over the Iran bombing last year. I see Barris is now hanging out with the Tuckster.

[SaveFerris]

(mainly driven by animus to Israel)

We see that here, unfortunately.

Which is an Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran talking point.

[cpdiii]

Most public polls are designed to influence an election and not inform the voters. That is why politicians pay big bucks to private polling firms to get the truth and then refine their political strategy.

In my lifetime two presidential elections have been stolen without doubt, JFK-Nixon 1960, Trump-Biden 2020. Obama verses Mitt Romney 2012, is a maybe.

[PGalt]

Thanks Larry. BUMP!

[Persevero]

Tasty red pills! Sick of the black ones. . . thanks LS

[Dan in Wichita]

Thanks, Larry.

Now, if we can just get all those newly registered Republicans to show up to vote, we might do okay in the midterms.