1. If Noem challenged Thune, she’d win.
2. She would then become an awful, and inconsequential, U.S. Senator. Beltway lobbyists would pass her around and take turns walking her around DC on a leash like a dog.
3. She would resign out of boredom or under the cloud of a financial scandal before she was halfway through her first term.
4. The governor of SD would name her replacement. There’s more than a 50% chance that it would be John Thune.
Your prediction for Massie to not work out well.