Oil prices rise and bonds wobble as Iran war stokes inflation fears

Oil prices rose and global bonds wobbled on Monday, as fresh tensions in the Middle East fed inflation fears and bets that central banks will have to increase interest rates.

Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, rose on Monday, after an attack on a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates.

It came as peace talks between the US and Iran stalled in the sixth week of ceasefire. Donald Trump wrote on social media: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”.

Brent crude rose by as much as 1.77% to $111.16 a barrel, its highest level in nearly two weeks, early on Monday. However, it eased back to $110 a barrel after Iran said it had responded to a new US proposal aimed at ending the war.

“On 4 February 2026, RTX announced an agreement with the US Department of Defense to increase Tomahawk production to over 1,000 units per year with a 7-year production agreement”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomahawk_missile

“The Tomahawk Block V carries an official FY2026 unit cost of $2.5 million, though contract prices range from $1.75 million to $4.1 million depending on variant and order size.”

https://govfacts.org/policy-security/military/defense-procurement-contractors/a-tomahawk-costs-2-million-heres-who-gets-paid-to-replace-it/

Each day of chatting with Iranian deceivers costs the taxpayers as much as 200 Tomahawks.

Those 200 Tomahawks could hit 31 Iranian refineries about six times in one day.

Nice ship you have there, Commander Israeli. Would you like to scalp Iran’s oil refineries?

The American public won't stand for it, especially if it's not a quick operation.

You are probably right. That is one reason why we haven't won a war since 1945, Grenada and Iraq War I possible exceptions. Even in Iraq War I, we didn't push on into Baghdad.

President Trump dominates the Republican Party, with politicians who voted for impeachment or who opposed redistricting going down to defeat. Having weakened the RINO wing, Trump has targeted the antiwar alt-right crowd. Assuming that Tom Massie goes down today, the President will have shown his dominance over his GOP antiwar opposition.

However, elections are won by coalitions. His MAGA base is steady and would likely support sustained assaults of Iran, but that base is not a majority. In 2024, Trump was able to draw non-traditional Republican voters to his side. However, these voters are not likely to accept financial hardships over a sustained period.

Congress has traditionally allowed the president great freedom in using the Navy for quick, sharp actions. Your Barbary Pirate example is a good one.

Thanks.

Trump might be right regarding Iran. But the longer it goes on, the less it will look like a Barbary Pirate thing, and more like a “foreign entanglement” thing that Washington warned us about.

I agree 100%. So how long is too long? Note that the First Barbary War lasted 4 years. To be fair to expecting shorter wars now, I'll grant that the 1st Barbary War took 4 years in part because the US Navy hadn't been fully rebuilt yet and our nation was new. And back then a war many miles away from us was a lot harder to pull off than it is now. All of those would be sound arguments for not expecting wars to take anything close to 4 years now with a relative small fry like the U.S. vs Iran today.

So how long is a reasonable expectation today? 20+ years like the Sep 11 response to Afghanistan and Bush's "win over hearts and minds" approach? Of course not. Almost 4 years like it took from the bombing of Pearl Harbor to Japan's surrender? IMHO that's too long, even though WW2 was more recent than the Barbary Wars. Does half a year to a year sound like a reasonable expectation? Especially given Trump's approach, which I like, to hit Iran hard for a while, give them a breather to think about it, then hit 'em hard again, etc.

Lost in all the "Trump can't win the war" rhetoric are these facts that I'm sure other nations are paying attention to. Iran has had:
161 ships destroyed
55 aircraft destroyed
At least 16 high ranking leaders killed
3K to 6K military killed, and
And $270 billion in losses for Iran

I haven't seen anyone else report this next part. But I personally paid attention to the fact that after Sep 11 we didn't go to war with Pakistan even though everyone knew that Pakistan was as hip deep in supporting Al Qaeda as Afghanistan was. Especially after Bin Laden was found in Afghanistan. Why didn't we go to war with them? Pakistan had nukes. That apparently gave Pakistan the cover to fight us by proxy without much FAFO. Which is mostly how Iran fights us (by proxy) while trying to get nukes.

Above all other middle east policy I don't want Iran to have the same status that Pakistan does.

Too bad current American leaders don’t heed George Washington’s great fatherly advice to avoid “foreign entanglements.” One of Washington’s greatest accomplishments was keeping the young American nation from becoming involved in the European wars spawned by the French revolution.

In his 1796 “Farewell Address,” George Washington warned the young United States to avoid permanent, binding political alliances and “foreign entanglements,” especially with Europe, urging a policy of neutrality and independence. He advocated for friendly commercial trade with all nations, but warned against “passionate attachments” or “habitual hatreds” towards any country.

> So how long is a reasonable expectation today? <

I’d say the larger the war, the shorter the acceptable time frame.

Going back to your Barbary Pirates example, that was a minor conflict. So no big deal if it went on for a few years. Huge casualty figures weren’t being printed in the newspapers.

Vietnam was a big deal. And thanks to LBJ, it dragged on way too long. The American people lost patience.

I’m thinking Iran today is somewhere in between, and closer to the Barbary Pirates analogy. But it easily could cross over into a Vietnam thing.

I agree with your half a year as a reasonable expectation.

Unfortunately, I also think Iran can hold out for much longer. Religious fanatics are like that.

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