Posted on 04/05/2026 11:03:28 AM PDT by MtnClimber
Brussels avoids speaking about it openly but the ghost of the 2020 COVID-19 crisis is beginning to reappear in the corridors of the EU.
What if the next major restriction does not come from a virus but from a lack of energy?
In Brussels, nobody wants to utter the term yet. The European Commission avoids any official comparison with the pandemic and rejects talk of “energy lockdowns.” But the idea is beginning to circulate with growing normality.
The war with Iran and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a crisis that no longer resembles the one of a few weeks ago. Back then, the discussion was mainly about voluntary measures, energy-saving campaigns and possible recommendations. Now rationing has begun for real, although for the moment it is concentrated on fuel.
Slovenia has become the first member state of the European Union to impose mandatory limits at filling stations. Private drivers cannot buy more than 50 litres a day and in some private stations the maximum has even been reduced to 30. Companies and farmers have a limit of 200 litres and the government has even mobilised the army to guarantee supply.
This type of action opens a door Brussels wanted to keep shut. For weeks, the Commission had insisted that it was not considering rationing measures within the EU. Now there is already one European country applying them and others are beginning to prepare similar mechanisms.
Drive Less, Fly Less: Brussels Prepares Europe for Energy Squeeze
EU officials are urging governments to prepare fuel-saving measures as war in the Middle East threatens global supply routes.
The Commission continues to use technical language. It speaks of “demand reduction measures,” “energy resilience” and “consumption coordination,” but behind those formulas appears a catalogue of measures that recalls another period that is still far too recent: working from home, fewer journeys, lower speed limits on roads, restrictions on the use of private cars, fewer flights and changes to business hours to consume less energy.
Dan Jørgensen, the European Commissioner for Energy, formally asked governments last Tuesday to prepare coordinated saving plans with particular attention to transport.
He argues that Europe depends on the Gulf for more than 40% of the diesel and aviation fuel it consumes. With Hormuz partially blocked, the Union is facing the disruption of almost 20% of global oil trade.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) considers this the largest disruption to the oil market in modern history. Crude oil has already risen above 100 dollars a barrel and strategic reserves are beginning to be used to prevent shortages from suddenly reaching European filling stations and airports.
Spain, Austria and other governments are trying to buy time. Madrid has reduced VAT on fuels, electricity and gas from 21% to 10%, approved aid for hauliers, farmers and fishermen, and released 11.5 million barrels from its strategic reserves. Austria has opted for tax cuts and limits on corporate profit margins. Brussels and the International Energy Agency have already released more than 400 million barrels from reserves worldwide. Budapest has imposed a price cap on motor fuel (the removal of which Brussels has already officially requested, the Hungarian government said.)
But those measures are beginning to look insufficient if the war continues.
Inside European institutions, officials are already working on a staggered, almost apocalyptic scenario. First would come purchase limits at filling stations, as in Slovenia. Then mandatory working from home for part of the public administration and recommendations to reduce travel. Later could come traffic restrictions, lower speed limits on motorways and flight cancellations. And if winter arrives with gas storage facilities still empty, Europe could enter a much more serious phase: mandatory cuts in electricity and gas consumption.
That scenario is not yet in force, but it already appears in internal winter-preparedness documents. European gas reserves are around 41% of capacity, clearly below the average of recent years. If they are not replenished before October and the winter is especially cold, Brussels is considering bringing back the tools of 2022: mandatory consumption-reduction targets, price intervention, extraordinary taxes and even controlled supply cuts.
The threat particularly affects aviation. Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has warned that between 10% and 25% of the aviation fuel available in Europe could disappear in May and June if the war continues. He is no longer speaking simply of more expensive tickets, but of a real possibility of mass flight cancellations in the middle of summer.
Ryanair believes there is still room for manoeuvre if the Strait of Hormuz reopens before the end of April. But if that does not happen, airlines will have to start reducing routes in June, July and August. European aviation fuel depends on the Gulf for close to 30% of its supply. In some countries the vulnerability is even greater.
The consequence would be a form of indirect rationing. Fewer flights available, much more expensive tickets and priority for routes considered essential. Some airlines in Asia and Oceania have already begun cancelling operations or reducing capacity. In Brussels, nobody rules out the same happening in Europe if the war drags on for a few more weeks.
The situation is beginning to feel disturbingly familiar. Once again, working from home. Once again, less movement. Once again, the idea that citizens must reorganise their daily lives in the name of an emergency defined from above. The difference is that this time the argument would not be public health but energy.
After years of talking about the green transition, strategic autonomy and resilience, the European Union is once again discovering its most basic dependency. It still needs foreign oil to sustain its economy, its mobility and its everyday life. And when that supply fails, a temptation Europe already knew during the pandemic reappears: limiting movement and consumption as a response to crisis.
Nobody is calling it an “energy lockdown” yet. But in Brussels there are already people preparing for it.
EEZ - Exclusive Economic Zone
Germans laugh after President Trump warns of reliance on foreign oil:
https://cdn.jwplayer.com/players/75YIwkul-pd7dBiGO.html
President Trump tried to warn them ... who’s laughing now?
When the muslims take over they will appreciate the gear.
That’s an amazing video clip.
Lots of punchable kraut faces.
bttt
Reducing sales tax is counterproductive, because it masks the shortage induced price increase, and delays the required reduction in consumption to match the reduced availability of fuel.
But it is probably politically popular in the very short term, hence it is policy
Combine this with the German Wizards of Smart who TURNED OFF ALL OF THE ELECTRICITY GENERATED BY NUCLEAR POWER.
Jeez, even France is building MORE nuclear power plants to generate more electricity.
Hello? McFly?
Europe amd many other places, like my home state, don’t have an energy problem. They have a STUPID problem. Shutiing down your most economical generators is STUPID. Limiting people’s choice of appliances inds STUPID. Steering people toward electric vehicles is STUPID.
Our local COOP (GVEA) was talking only a year or so ago about shutting down their largest generator, a coal fired plant, that was the lowest cost per kilowatt unit in the system. NO planning whatsoever. Now, they have noticed that due to lousy planning and green crap they are running short on capacity.
So electric power is passing 30 cents per KWH. Heating oil is nudging $5.00/gallon. It must be all those drone strikes on the North Slope and at the PetroStar refinery in North Pole. That must be it. It couldn’t be greed, stupidity, and lousy planning.
“How many people saw this coming years in advance? Apparently the EU politicians were too lost in fairytale dreams.”
No the EU wants this. It gives them even more power when they administer the rationing.
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman --- just a few of the nations whose economies depend on the oil that passes through Hormuz.
And yet, when that flow of oil is threatened, who do they expect to put planes in the air, ships in the Gulf, or boots on the ground in Iran?
We are spending US Billions and blood and bullets when we don't need even one drop of that oil. Why?
The Ayatollah, I guess.
Okay, so we take him out, all the missiles, all the nuclear stuff, then let those other nations deal with keeping Iran disarmed and non-agressive. Who, you say? Let them figure it out. I suppose it would be a coalition. Sunnis, Kurds, Hebrews even. They can wear blue helmets if they like.
Agreed. “Never let a crisis go to waste”, Rham Emanuel.
AOC is all over this.
Yep.
“France is the only Western Europe country with a decent blue-water navy:”
Useless without the will to use it. What are they waiting for?
Yes, I agree with you, the author is wrong, EU absolutely wants this.
Methinks the author needs to reread "Nineteen Eighty Four ...
"If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face – for ever."
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