How China’s Rare Earth Ban Backfired into a U.S. Tech Breakthrough

Oilprice ^ | 1 Mar 2026 | Tom Kool

[DUMBGRUNT]

As President Trump pointed out, it isn’t rare earths that are critical to national security, it's the “rare processing” industry. ...In a Chinese plant, this process requires over 200 workers managing chemical tanks and adjusting valves manually. The Saskatchewan facility was able to reduce this by approximately 80 workers and an AI that receives thousands of data points every second and can make the necessary adjustments that no human team could coordinate.

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TOPICS: Business/Economy; Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: china; minerals; nationalsecurity; terbium

[DUMBGRUNT]

"For want of a nail." Or some heavy rare earths.

[ClearCase_guy]

I thought that part of the problem was toxic waste from the processing. China seems to have no problem spewing toxic waste everywhere, but western nations try to avoid that sort of thing. I’m glad that Canada is building an advanced processing plant — but is the waste still a problem?

[rdcbn1]

The Chinese have run many competitors out of the rare earths production due to low costs of production achieved via little to no use of environmental controls and strategic predatory low pricing to run competitors out of business.

China then made the huge mistake of trying to use rare earths as a trade weapon which forced the US to view rare earths production as a strategic rather and economic issue

Big mistake.

[Jonty30]

China is working to steal the technology, if they haven’t already.

[FLT-bird]

We need to get this and other processing facilities up and running at scale ASAP.

[sauropod]

.

[woodbutcher1963]

I watched a video yesterday about the new motors Tesla made for the Model S Plaid.
They invented the process to wind carbon fiber around the motor. Apparently this gives them an advantage over all other EV manufacturers.

I am not an electrical engineer. I trained in college as a mechanical engineer.
Please feel free to add your input for people who understand this better than me.

[Owen]

These articles largely all say the same thing which is X number of billions of dollars have been designated for the magnet production task and Y company expects to be online in the year Z.

I have yet to see an article that quotes company Z is funded and fully functional and has produced last year’s quantity of required neodymium magnets and shipped them for use by the military.

In other words none of them say the problem is solved. And none of them dare to say that best estimate for achieving production of last year’s requirements of neodymium magnets is 10 to 15 years. It’s 10 to 15 years regardless of what software code is running in what chips because that’s just how long it takes to do if you have all of the ore in one place and ready to start through the processing line.

[Gen.Blather]

In WWII the Japanese seized the rubber plantations that supplied the base material for seals and tires. The technology to replace rubber was known but there was no incentive to use it as long as rubber was available. The same is probably true of “rare earths.” As long as China is holding down the price there was no way anyone would build a processing facility that couldn’t beat the Chinese price. Also, if such a facility did come online, the Chinese would subsidize the price further until that company went out of business. Building the new facility needed to become a national priority. Thank you, Chairman Xi.

[AZJeep]

Exactly, “Rare Earths” are not that rare, and US uset to dominate that market.
But Chinese, drove all competition out of market.
They did it again and again. When there is a threat to their monopoly, they simply undercut them until they are gone and then rise prices again.
They will even buy the bankrupt competitors to get more of the monopoly!

[major_gaff]

This is in Canada...ChiComs will have the tech within the year. Carney will give it to
them.

[catnipman]

“Also, if such a facility did come online, the Chinese would subsidize the price further until that company went out of business.”

the solution is for the FedGov to enter long-term contracts for large amounts of finished metals at a fixed price that guarantees a profit to companies that invest billions in rare earth processing ... the chinese can give away their metals to the rest of the world for only so long ...

[Fury]

Good point - thanks for making it.

[House Atreides]

“ China is working to steal the technology, if they haven’t already.”
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For sure! It’s SOP for them.

[TruthBringsFreedom]

I built flywheels using carbon fiber. It is definitely the strongest candidate, and can handle significantly higher rotation speeds than metal can, as the video you saw correctly said. However, its mass is lower, so for flywheels, that is a detriment, but for motors, it is a bonus. In terms of electrical currents in the carbon fiber, which conducts electricity as you know, it is minimal since the electrical resistance is relatively high, and there aren’t many free electrons to be affected by the local magnetic field, so the induced voltage will be lower. The coefficient of thermal expansion is also low, so it won’t expand or contract much when it gets cold or hot in Fairbanks or Miami. The hardest part was definitely putting the fiber down in a dense weave, but Tesla acquired the technology via the company I used to do that some years ago. BTW, I have degrees in electrical engineering, physics, and mechanical engineering. More than eighty issued patents.

[Rockingham]

Waste is apparently reduced (and probably made less toxic) because the facility relies on precise computer control in processing rare earth concentrates instead of manual adjustments by workers monitoring dials and gauges. As always in chemical reactions and industrial processes, precise control is better because it reduces waste and unwanted and often toxic byproducts and compounds.