I’m not really excited about stepping into another quagmire.
The US took one Iranian government in 1953.
Jimmy Carter pulled the rug from under the shah in 1979.
I don’t like the way this is shaping up. That said, the Trump administration knows full well that a quagmire would kill their chances of winning in the fall of this year. Trump would lose the house and get impeached again. Plus 2028 would start to look very shaky.
I’m not sure I understand the risk/reward for Americans. The Iranians do not currently have the capacity to build a bomb. They can’t even threaten the Israelis. That was taken care of last year. So what other vital interest does the US have at stake
The Iranians need to figure out how to shape their own future without outside help.
I am thinking that the Iranians need to give up Uranium enrichment. That they do not, signals to all that they seek nuclear weapons.
Without Uranium enrichment, they can have mullahs, they can have the Shah, whatever. No one will care.
“ Jimmy Carter pulled the rug from under the shah in 1979.”
We still suffer under the decisions made by that idiot. He wrecked the nuclear power industry.
Free the Persians!
My guess is there will be a negotiated agreement that on the surface looks good but will not last a year. Pres Trump has already abandoned the Iranians he urged on to revolution. So a temporary but positive looking nuke agreement is what I think he will settle for. He really is very uncomfortable with war and dead. He will choose a deal. What will make the deal go south is that the Iranians and others will recognize Pres Trump’s hatred of actual war.
“... Iran does not have the capability now to build a bomb...”
So, you are not aware that North Korea has given them the plans for nuclear bombs, and both China and North Korea have sent technology and equipment Iran can’t build themselves.
All Iran needs is to be able to, and be allowed to finish separating the material they need.