Posted on 02/07/2026 4:14:41 AM PST by Duke C.
As of recent data (reflecting 2024-2025 estimates):Proven global crude oil reserves are around 1.77 trillion barrels (or approximately 1,765 billion barrels). At current consumption levels (roughly equivalent to recent production of about 100-103 million barrels per day), this equates to about 47 years of reserves left.
This figure comes from sources like Worldometer, which bases it on 2025 reserve data and 2024 consumption levels.
(Excerpt) Read more at x.com ...
47 years left. What is the history of such predictions? I vaguely recall a prediction that we would run out of oil by 1930.
The current theory is that oil is magma and ooze, that the world just keeps making, never run out, infinite supply. The entire fossil fuels thing is a myth.
I use Grok and Chatgpt a lot and they both use the web as their sources. I asked Grok the same question as in the thread title and got the same information to include:
“This ~47-year figure is a snapshot and not a hard deadline:
It assumes constant consumption (which may rise or fall due to efficiency, electrification of transport, renewables growth, or economic factors). It excludes unproven or undiscovered resources, which are substantial (e.g., estimates of ultimately recoverable resources are much higher). Production can shift (e.g., more from non-conventional sources like shale or deepwater). Geopolitical, economic, or environmental factors (e.g., sanctions, climate policies) can affect extraction rates.”
Will I be alive on earth in 47 years? Very likely no unless there are some major longevity breakthroughs.
Yeah the “gas shortage” in the 70s was a created “disaster”
The Green New Dealer Feelers want us to believe that we heat our homes with coagulated dinosaur farts.
It is to laugh.
The study of Geology in high school should be compulsory.
And FRACK the result.
Best hire a good Landsman.
And if fusion STILL isn’t practical, we can fall back on coal lithification and NG/CNG/LNG (natural gas) at moderate inconvenience and more expense for drivers, and a big healthy incentive to come up with the “next big thing” without tearing down the whole system.
Many believe that the US government already knows how to generate zero point energy. Maybe they are tinfoil hatters. But Tucker Carlson has had some experts on his podcast about it.
Only gas powered cars. You could still drive a Tesla after 47 yrs .
Woohoo electric ⚡⚡⚡!!
It is not so much the “consumption levels” that is important. It is the price of product that is important. We have unlimited resources to explore for at the right price, but sadly, we already ran out of cheap oil decades ago. If the price is high enough, then we will spend it to have enough energy. That is a fact.
>> Plus, many of these holes refill themselves.
Plus, when the current Congress finally dies out there’ll be more dead dinosaurs, thus more future petroleum feedstock! :-)
“Vast areas of the earth have not been explored for oil, and extraction technology continues to improve.”
Yep. So far fracking has mainly been commercial in the US. That’s probably not due to unique geology, but due to skill and need. When it’s time to unlock the source rock in the Middle East and Russia, both the oil and technology to get it will be there.
> 47 years of reserves left.
Impossible! In elementary school I was taught we’d be out of oil by the 1980s and a new ice age would arrive in 2000.
We are essentially swimming in oil... There are vast reserves of oil in the earth’s crust that we haven’t even found yet... And when we find those reserves we will tap them, like we always do. We are not running out of oil.
AMEN.
I am presently working with a group of very highly educated people (most are PhDs) whose leader has taken to regular use of AI to evaluate and provide recommendations on our project’s challenges. While they all assert that AI is ‘Just another tool’, they turn to it first, before using the actual (vs. Artificial) intelligence within our team, and generally fail to come up with any other ideas. AI is in that way I believe de-evolutionary.
Also, FWIW, I for some reason was earlier this morning reading up on 2112, the 1976 album by Rush. The story it tells is of a future in which the oracles of supposed truth take their direction from a vast bank of computers. Seems as if we’re there.
“…this equates to about 47 years of reserves left.“
Yawn. Tell me something I haven’t been hearing since 1969.
“ We’ll probably design better batteries. Hook up to nuclear power.”
If only
The current trend on batteries is failure. Car batteries used to last 4-5 years. I accepted and calculated on 3 year life. Now most car batteries are not making 3.
The smaller mower/atv batteries last maybe 1 year, and did I mention the cost?
Everything is more expensive and quality is failing. 4 years of bidung really knocked us back.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.