Transcript
470 years ago, a major earthquake struck China’s Wei Valley. That in itself isn’t all that extraordinary. The Earth experienced 17 major earthquakes just in 2025. And in fact, that earthquake, which struck China’s Shangi Province on January 23rd, 1556, wasn’t by any means the most powerful in human history. And yet an inscription at the time reads simply, “Since the beginning of time, there has been no earthquake comparable to this one.” [ad text redacted]
A passage is included in this vast compendium of the records of the Ming Dynasty that is called the Ming Shilu. In the 34th year of the Jaing dynasty on the Renin day of the 12th month, the earth trembled simultaneously in Shangzei, Shanzi in Hanan, accompanied by a thunderous roar. The date is using the Chinese regional year system measured by the reigns of emperors. The earthquake occurred on the 12th day of the 12th month of the 34th year of the reign of the Jaing Emperor. That translates to January 23rd, 1556. However, that’s on the calendar that Europe was using at the time, the Julian calendar before the reforms of Pope Gregory XIII, so it didn’t happen exactly 470 years ago today.
Chin Kand was a Chinese scholar who survived the quake and recorded his experience. During the night, in the middle of a dream, I awoke with a start, shaken and trembling. I was tossed about and could not hold onto the mattress. Near my bunk, I heard a sound as if someone were dropping utensils. The tiles on my roof made a violent noise like the gallop of 10,000 horses. First, I thought of thieves. Then, I thought of disaster caused by demons. Finally, only then, as the wall against my head rested collapsed, did I suddenly realize that it was an earthquake. I saw that the moon’s color was obscured by dust. Hastily, I grabbed my clothes and jumped out of bed, my body lurching as if I were drunk, my feet unable to touch the ground. South of my house, there was an empty space. Through the breach in the wall, I rushed there, and when I arrived, I saw that my mother, my brothers, elder and younger, and my nephew were already arrived, unharmed. We called to you, shouting anxiously, but you didn’t hear us.
An account of the earthquake is inscribed on a stela housed in a temple of the goddess Nua in Hay Province. People were terrified, rushing out of their houses, unable to stand and unsure what to do. Treetops touched the ground and houses leaned. As to the size of the area affected, Chin Kada wrote, “Let us give details of this earthquake from Tanguan and Puban. It struck violently and suddenly, spreading in all four directions like a raging wave. In various directions, it spread gradually. For this reason, the resulting disaster was varied. It’s impossible to know how far it went. From the west of our province, it gradually weakened. From the east of our province, it gradually strengthened until Zenuan and Puban, where it was strongest.” The account inscribed on the stela describes the area affected. In Hanan, the tremors were slight. In Shangi, extremely strong, and in other provinces, the ground movements were only faintly felt. More than 10 prefectures and counties reported that on the day and month above, the Earth shook simultaneously with a sound like thunder. The scale of tremor can be extrapolated from these records. Fatima Woo writes on the research website EPCO in 2022 that the total epicentral area covered approximately 108,100 square miles while the total disaster area reached 347,500 square miles, including 185 counties. The total area across which the quake was felt is estimated to have been approximately 772,200 square miles.
The Ming Shilu gives some details of the power of the earthquake. Chickens squawked and dogs barked. In Shani and other places, the earth either split open and springs gushed forth with fish, or city walls and buildings were swallowed by the earth, or hills suddenly rose from the plains. Sometimes there was a succession of tremors in a single day, and other times the tremors continued unabated day after day. The way river overflowed its banks. The Hooan and Zong mountains resounded, and the rivers took many days to clear again.
Chin Kanda wrote, “Where the earthquake was weak, the walls of the houses leaned more or less. Where it was strong, everything was immediately and completely ruined. Where the earthquake was weak, those who had escaped death were still able to take refuge. Where it was strong, although some were fortunate enough to remain alive, many were buried and had to be dug out. Thus, in Wayan, a city gate sank into the ground. In the city of Yangja, not a single chi, roughly a square foot, remained standing. In Tanguan and Puban, the city walls collapsed and the homes of ordinary people and official buildings were destroyed. Other events included the sudden appearance of rotten boat planks, the emergence of an enormous red-furred fish, a mountain shifting five li (approximately 10 m) with its dwellings still standing proudly, and a mountain of enchanted earth rising vigorously and blocking the road. Other occurrences included the removal of trees from a village and the alteration of the path between fields. The list is endless.
The modified Mercalli intensity scale, first formulated by Italian seismologist Jeppe Mali in 1883, can be used to gauge earthquake intensity based on historical description. According to the United States Geological Survey, the intensity of an earthquake at a location is a number that characterizes the severity of ground shaking at that location by considering the effects of the shaking on people, on man-made structures, and on the landscape. These descriptions represent extreme damage at the highest levels, 10 or 12 on the Mercalli scale in the areas most violently affected. But while the scale and intensity were remarkable, what made the 1556 Shunks earthquake truly extraordinary was its extreme number of casualties.
To understand the 1556 Shunks earthquake, you have to understand the time and place where it occurred. China experienced a population boom during the 16th century, owing largely to the stability under the Ming dynasty in agricultural developments and new crops. Exactly how large the boom was is unclear. Contemporary sources chronicled an astounding growth from some 60 million to over 150 million over the course of the century. The problem is that the subjects of the empire often avoided the census so as to avoid taxes, and contemporary accounts might have been underestimated. Some historians today put the population as high as 200 million. Europe also saw growth during the century as the Renaissance took hold in the transition from the Middle Ages to the modern period. But Europe had been devastated by the Black Death in the 14th century and had experienced more frequent wars, less agricultural surplus, and smaller, less stable political units. The population of Europe was less than half that of China, estimated between 70 and 80 million at the beginning of the century and around 90 million by 1600.
This was a time when the overall population of the world, although numbers are necessarily inexact, is generally estimated to have been less than 500 million. That is, the population of China under the great Ming might have been as high as 40% of the world’s population. The province of Shangi in the northwest was one of the first to be settled in China. Considered as a cradle of Chinese civilization, the area hosted the capital of the Zhao, Chin, Hong, and Tang dynasties between the first millennium BC to the first millennium AD. But the province was relatively neglected during the Ming period. The region was relatively arid, suffered from frequent droughts, exacerbated by the cooling period called the Little Ice Age, and did not benefit as much as the southern provinces from the economic reforms of the Great Ming. By the mid-century, the empire was in decline, and the Xiai Jing Emperor had withdrawn from court politics. Woo writes, “Politically, the Ming dynasty at the beginning of the 16th century witnessed a time of turmoil and decline. Corruption festered in court as the emperors neglected their duties. The province was never an attractive place for government officials who sought transfers rather than stay to help the people. But the area was highly populated with especially high population density along the Wei River Valley, a fertile agricultural region and historical transportation route. The Wei River, some 500 m long, is the largest tributary of the Yellow River. Large cities, Xian, Shenyang, Lyang, and Kiang dotted the valley. But there was a problem. The Wei River Basin is a major geological trough shaped by active faulting lying at the southern end of the area of tectonic stress called the H Bay fault, which lies at the complex boundary of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates. The area had a history of earthquakes recorded in some of the earliest Chinese records as far back as the 18th century BC. The large population along the Wei River, largely poor, were particularly vulnerable in an area that recorded at least 36 large earthquakes between 1177 BC and 1976. Many along the river lived in Yodong, essentially houses dug directly into hillsides. The earthquake struck near midnight when people were asleep in their beds. Their dwellings simply collapsed on them. Chin Kandanda wrote, “As for the many people who lived in the caves and valleys, many entire families perished, crushed, and few escaped. Others were killed as entire sides of mountains collapsed on homes or in floods as rivers overran their banks or in fires as wooden structures collapsed and were set ablaze by their cook stoves.” The stela records, “On the 13th day, the earthquake made a noise like 10,000 thunders. The houses leaned and collapsed. The mountainside, the plain, the walls split open. Black water, sand, and mud gushed forth, and a great number of people were crushed to death. The Yan Man district of Ana County was completely destroyed, as were 80% of the common people’s houses. There were more than 10,000 crushed dead and countless head of livestock were lost. And the counselor in charge of Hadung Dao town and all the members of his family were crushed. Only a seven-year-old boy survived. In the same prefecture, it was reported that the judge was injured and that seven officials and their wives were crushed to death. Countless civilians and soldiers perished, burned and crushed. Many of those killed were officials. Chin Kadalis several in San Grand Counselor Mali and Wayan civil officer Shu Zu, official Hung Chaguan, director of affairs Wong Jang Lee, and Mandrid Baong in Huin. Imperial Inspector Yang Zhaozun in Huai Jian, Minister of Education Wong Jen in Xiaoy, Minister Hong Bangqing in Pu Province, defense allocation adviser Ya BB, and in Wayan, all members of Xiing’s family perished without a single survivor. These were officials of all ranks. The number of people from all clans who were crushed to death was enormous. It is impossible to record all their names.
Some regions were entirely devastated. Chinada writes that those who suffered from the disaster were numerous. In Nong Guang and Puban, 70% per capita died. Likewise, 60% per capita died in Hu Yin, 50% in Hynan, 40% in Linong, and 30% in the provincial capital. Guan Jang has experienced the most earthquakes, but never before have we seen so many deaths in a disaster as in our time. As with any disaster, more misery followed. Chinada wrote about the following day. People were going to and fro, weeping, running frantically like bees that have lost their hive. Noon arrived. No one had eaten. The cooking utensils were all destroyed. Even the grain and flour were buried. In the city, rumors spread and spread fear. The inhabitants of Aan looted warehouses, and the county’s vice chief, Nunfeni, had two men beheaded to restore order. Inhabitants of Puh province were terrified for their possessions. Then the local Mandarin, Yang Shu Lee, had a man beheaded to restore order. The people of Tong province pillaged villages, and Wangm, the recipient of the Mandarin title, killed several men with his sword to restore order. Had it not been for all these magistrates who applied the strict rules of law enacted swiftly, Guan Jang, the central plain, would have been in grave danger. Alas, what distress. Unrest following disaster hastened the collapse of the dynasty. Woo writes, “This earthquake not only highlights the vulnerabilities of the time, but also serves as a significant marker in China’s historical narrative, influencing social unrest and contributing to the decline of imperial authority.”
The Men Shu Lee reported, “The report to the emperor mentions that there were at least 830,000 known dead, including officials, civilians, and military personnel. Among the officials stationed there, originally from Nanging, were the Minister of War. Countless others died whose names are unknown or who are not mentioned in the report to the emperor. Estimates of this earthquake’s magnitude on the scale that we use today, the moment magnitude scale, range between about 7.5 and 8.2. One study in 2021 put the upper limit at 8.0. And while that is certainly a major earthquake, it’s nowhere near a record. One in Kamaka last July was an 8.8 magnitude earthquake, which would have been some 63 times more powerful. The difference in Shangze in 1556 was in the population density and its vulnerability, which takes us to the superlative that might be involved. The Ming were great keepers of records, but it’s not exactly clear how they came to that number 830,000. It might be an exaggeration, but it also might be undercounting as the way this earthquake occurred, many of those victims would never have been found, and the records for their census at the time were known to undercount. But if 830,000 is close to accurate, it wouldn’t by any means be the deadliest natural disaster in history. Floods in China in 1931 killed an estimated 4 million people. That occurred, however, over a period of several months. It would, of course, be by a wide margin the deadliest earthquake in history. But if the number 830,000, even if it’s exaggerated, if it’s close to true, that means that January 23rd, 1556 is very likely the single deadliest day in human history. And that occurred at a time when the Earth’s population was just around 6% of what it is today. Given the way that the population has grown, the number of people that would have to die to represent an equivalent percentage of the world’s population is around 138 million.
Since the beginning of time, there has been no earthquake comparable to this one.
