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Posted on 01/26/2026 2:53:43 PM PST by nickcarraway
Last Sunday night, Sean Payton sat in his office at the Denver Broncos facility, watching film of his opponent in the upcoming AFC Championship Game: the New England Patriots. He wanted to have the Los Angeles Rams-Chicago Bears divisional round game on in the background. He turned on one of the flatscreens in his office. He flipped around, somehow ending up on Nickelodeon and "Dora the Explorer." He finally found the right channel, just in time for the Bears to make a critical decision on their first drive. On fourth-and-2 from the Rams 21, they elected to skip a gimme field goal and go for it -- the exact type of call that has dominated playoff professional and college football this season, and can end up winning a tight game or be one of the main reasons for a loss.
Payton saw the Bears line up on offense, and he squinted. "Kick it," he said.
On the play, Caleb Williams was intercepted, costing Chicago three points -- the difference in the final score.
"Why are coaches not kicking field goals?" Payton said, turning back to game preparation.
That decision for coaches -- when to go for it on fourth-and-short and when to kick -- has become one of the most scrutinized and divisive calls in football, an easy sports talk debate. For most of professional football's existence, it wasn't even a decision. Coaches took the points. That started to change in 2002, when a renowned Cal-Berkeley economist named David Romer authored a paper called "It's Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say?"
Using the Bellman Equation -- Ei Di(gt) Vi = Pgt + Bgt Ei Di(gt+1) Vi - egt -- Romer's conclusion was clear: the probabilities of what could happen after a successful conversion on fourth-and-4 or less outweighed kicking a field goal or, in some cases, punting and playing field position. Simply put, the math told coaches to be more aggressive.
Romer's findings didn't become conventional wisdom for more than a decade. Now, broadcasts feature in-game analytics, with percentages. Coaches like Detroit's Dan Campbell go for it as an imperative -- as part of their identity.
The Broncos' director of game management/assistant offensive line coach Evan Rothstein is one of Payton's most trusted and valued staffers. He came to Denver from Detroit and New England, where he learned from Bill Belichick, who revolutionized situational football strategy. On Saturday mornings during the football season, Rothstein gives mesmerizing presentations to Payton and the coordinators, breaking down key moments from the previous week's games and ending with data-backed opinions of what to do should the Broncos end up in a similar position.
But in the end, it's Payton's call.
Generally, if the Broncos are driving and faced with fourth-and-short yardage, they will strongly consider going for it. If it's fourth-and-1 after the opponent turns the ball over and gives Denver a short field, Payton will usually take the points.
Sunday's AFC championship was different, of course. It was different because quarterback Jarrett Stidham was making his first start of the season after star Bo Nix fractured his ankle last week. It was different because Denver's defense hadn't played particularly well against top opponents since the bye week. It was different because the Broncos could have easily lost to the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round because their red zone offense was inefficient: one touchdown in four trips. And it was different because a Super Bowl appearance was on the line. All of those facts can be used to argue for or against going for it on fourth-and-short.
In the second quarter Sunday against New England, the Broncos were up 7-0. They drove into the Patriots red zone. On third-and-6, Stidham scrambled right for 5 yards to the New England 14-yard line. That left fourth-and-1 -- and a familiar decision. Denver had gained yardage on every play of that drive, and to that point, its defense had forced three punts.
"I wanted 14-0," Payton later told me.
Going for it is one thing; finding a good play is another. Payton ordered 11 personnel -- one running back, one tight end and three receivers -- and from it called a running play called Nickel Duo. "A sub-run versus a sub-front," he said.
Then, Payton called timeout. He wanted to think.
Duo was Denver's top fourth-and-short run; Slipper Naked, a bootleg to the right, was its top fourth-and-short pass. He went with the pass. But at the snap, the Patriots surprised Denver by playing Red 2, a zone defense, behind a six-man front. The play had no chance. Stidham threw into traffic, incomplete. Denver not only missed out on three points but also missed out on its last, best opportunity for easy points. The Broncos never got so close to the end zone the rest of the game.
"I wish I'd stayed with the initial play call," Payton said softly, leaving the stadium. "The look they showed on film, and the look we saw, wasn't the look we got."
Denver, the AFC's top seed and a home underdog for both playoff games, lost for many reasons. The Broncos failed to run, and catch, well. They missed two field goals. Stidham fumbled in the second quarter, leading to New England's only touchdown, and threw an interception late in the game. Denver's defense played one of its best games of the year but forced zero turnovers. A priority all week -- in coaches' game-planning sessions and in full-team meetings -- was to contain quarterback Drake Maye and keep him from running. Maye ended up with 10 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown, including a run left to ice the game with just under two minutes left.
But Denver also lost because of Payton's decision. Something about fourth down brings out the explicable and inexplicable in coaches, the rational and irrational. You never know what you'll get. To this day, Belichick regrets going for it on fourth down against the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII. In Sunday's NFC Championship Game against Seattle, Sean McVay of the Rams -- a coach who is often criticized for not going for it on fourth down enough, and who took field goals against Chicago last week and won -- went for it twice on fourth down midway through the fourth quarter down 31-27, getting a first down on one, missing the second time, and coming away with zero points in the loss. Why do some fourth downs convert and some fail?
Payton hates it when people attempt to rationalize a missed opportunity or failed play by shrugging and saying, "That's football." It's an affront to his soul and everything he stands for, when he and his staff work 18-hour days to impose their will on a coin flip of a game.
But the thing is, that is football. And always will be. After Sunday's game, Payton entered his small office down the hall from the locker room. He sat down and stared at the floor. He is 62 years old and has been a head coach for 19 years. He has a Super Bowl win, and many devastating playoff defeats. It was quiet, except for the random sounds of the crash landing of a season ending: the echo of a shouted cussword, the shuffle of coaches and staffers mulling around and whispering.
Moments passed. Payton sat up.
"I can't believe we lost."
A few more seconds passed.
"That fourth down ..."
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I watched the game, and did not fault them for going for it instead of kicking the field goal. And I wasn’t rooting for them to win.
It is a chance. If you take that chance and succeed, you are glorified.
If you take that chance and lose, you will be second guessed or even fired.
I personally did not think it was a bad chance to take. But that is just how my personality is. Other people would not take that chance.
Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy, with the possible exception of Lane Kiffin. LoL
I think if you are going to go for it on 4th you should do it in the first half. If you don’t make you still have most of the game to make up for it. If you don’t make it during the last 5 minutes it will most likely cost you the game.
I am more upset at them not trying to go all out and block the punt late in the game, they wanted to set up a return and the punt went out of bounds anyway, and it wasn’t a long punt anyway in those conditions.
That looked like a brutal game to play...not because of the cold, but because of the slipperiness and lack of visibility.
It was like watching people wearing smooth slippers trying to play football on an ice skating rink.
I accept the analytics, but Payton gave away his rationale when he said, “I wanted it to be 14-0.” It was an emotional decision. Even if they make it on fourth down, they still had a way to go. I think going for it was the right decision, for the wrong reason, that came up short. Especially given the QB situation and snow expected in the second half.
I can’t help feeling a little bit sorry for Denver and its fans.
Events, dear boy, events. You have to look at the likely sequence of events, given that you make it or fail. It's like drawing to an inside straight or checking in poker. You put in your chips and take your chances. There are no sure bets and everything depends on the situation.
Take the points!
Half the kicks and 75% of the caught passes look like miracles to me. There’s a little ‘hail mary’ in every one. No sense in Monday morning or mourning them.
Now, the officiating, that’s a different kettle of fish....
It cost him the game.
I admit, now that I am older and less emotionally invested in a sporting event, I feel sympathy for most every team that is on the losing end in a championship game.
Well...most every team.
You might know from past interactions that I am a Pats Fan, thought less emotional about it now. Which is a good thing. I used to get quite upset.
And as a Pat’s Fan, many of our seasons foundered on the rocks in the playoffs at Mile High Stadium. That is just a fact.
I admit, after the game, I went to the fan site for Denver, milehighreport.com, and did something I rarely ever do...read the comments.
I did feel bad for them, but I recognized myself in some of those posts. We shoulda won! If we had Nix, it wouldn’t have even been close! The Refs sucked! (I agreed on that). If the weather hadn’t been so bad, we woulda won! The Coach sucked!
And so on.
All those things. And they might be true.
But as I have aged, I recognize what every intelligent military man in the world comes to accept: If you go to war, you have to fight with the military you have, under the conditions you have, not the military and the conditions you would like.
And so it is with football. You play with the hand that is dealt to you. And you keep in mind, that if you have problems, the other team also often has the same ones, or more. Too many military people over the years forget that in combat, as bad as they might have it...your enemy is also having problems too.
And football fans forget that too, or never know it until they get older...like me!
1. Attempt a 37-38 yard field goal — which will probably be successful 95% of the time under normal field and weather conditions.
2. Run a play and make the first down.
3. Run a play and come up short.
The reason more and more teams are eschewing Option 1 is that the upside has diminished. If you make the field goal, you get the three points but the kickoff to the opposing team will most likely give them the ball somewhere around the 30-35 yard line.
If you miss the field goal, you get no points and you give the ball up at the 27 or 28 yard line (wherever it was placed for the FG attempt).
If you run a play and fail to make the 1st down, you get no points and you’re giving the ball up at or inside the 20 yard line.
Well, eventually may have to go for it in 4th quarter. The Rams went for it down 4 in east FG range. They could have made the FG to be down by 1. But there defense wasn’t exactly stopping the Eagles either.
Well, eventually may have to go for it in 4th quarter. The Rams went for it down 4 in east FG range. They could have made the FG to be down by 1. But there defense wasn’t exactly stopping the Eagles either.
“I think if you are going to go for it on 4th you should do it in the first half. If you don’t make you still have most of the game to make up for it. If you don’t make it during the last 5 minutes it will most likely cost you the game.”
Bingo. They need to add in some Bayesian analysis.
“It cost him the game.”
Actually it didn’t. He would have had a tie in the slippery 4th quarter with an inexperienced QB against a better offense. Odds in OT would have gone to New England.
Yep! That was a gamble, and they lost. Ugh.
Funny thing about Stidham-I heard some Pats fan go on some national show and shoot his mouth off about how the Pats were going to win easily, it wouldn’t even be close because Nix wasn’t playing.
I used to be a Redskins Fan back when I started watching football, mostly because I lived in the area and the fandom was all ablaze with George Allen and the Over The Hill Gang, it seemed like that was all anyone every talked about, so naturally, as a teenager who had just moved back from being overseas during the Sixties, I became a Redskins fan.
A rabid one.
And I still, to this day, remember the Thanksgiving Day Massacre. Redskins vs Cowboys in the hated (for me) Texas Stadium. Hahaha...I hated the Cowboys as only a young teenager has the capability to do, with all my heart and soul.
Watching the Thanksgiving Day game between the Redskins and Cowboys, I remember being wholly elated when Roger Staubach was knocked out of the game when he was sacked by Defensive Tackle Diron Talbert, who had said before the game he was going to knock him out of the game.
I remember being ecstatic, thinking the game was won with the Redskins leading 16-3 in the third quarter. And how I hated Roger Staubach. I thought he was a pussy. Of course, as I aged, I was able to give Staubach credit where it was fully due. But that young teenage me could never make that leap...:)
But Longley made football history, winning it on the last play with a really long pass to Drew Pearson (I think) to win 24-23.
So, here I am, 52 years later talking to my best friend about Stidham playing for Denver, and I said “No. Since that Thanksgiving Day game in 1974, I always assume a backup quarterback coming in can kill you!”
Heh, he said I sounded like I still had PTSD all these years later!
At least Sid had a good 1st quarter
The loss was not just because of one play. There was a very high number of variations or missed plays by all of the 22 people (not counting the Refs) on the field.
A couple of missed tackles or blocks, receiver dropping the ball, running back loafing on a couple of plays,coach calling wrong play...etc and more. ALL of these things decide whether a team wins or loses. Not just one play.
A game is decided by multiple factors. not just one play.
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