Posted on 12/26/2025 7:24:00 AM PST by delta7
China’s relentless silver buying at record prices, a record SHFE spread, and 2026 export controls confirm silver has become the decisive industrial, economic, tech, and military weapon
Physical silver buying in China is continuing at full speed even as silver marks fresh all‑time highs, and that persistence is the tell. What is unfolding is not a normal commodity cycle; it is a quiet arms race for the metal that powers the modern world.
Silver buying doesn’t care about price.
China’s silver demand has only intensified as prices have exploded, with Shanghai spot and near‑dated SHFE futures trading at persistent premiums to London and New York. That premium is arbitrage’s way of screaming that real metal in China is worth more than Western paper promises.
Silver is a critical input for solar, electronics, EVs, data centers, AI hardware, medical devices, drones, and precision weapons, and Chinese manufacturers cannot simply “opt out” when prices rise. For tens of thousands of factories, silver is a tiny share of the finished product’s cost, so they buy regardless and pass the higher input cost on to the end user.
Spot–SHFE spread snaps
In recent months, China’s basis and futures curve have repeatedly blown out, with SHFE silver trading at record levels and a rich premium over LBMA prices. Rising open interest and backwardation on the SHFE curve show this is not a one‑off squeeze, but a crowd of domestic players leaning hard into physical‑anchored prices.
That widening gap between Western spot and Chinese prices is the market’s split screen: paper markets marking time in New York while Shanghai bids up metal needed for factories, power grids, and weapons systems. When spreads get this extreme, silver naturally flows toward the highest, most reliable buyer—and right now, that is China.
January 1, 2026: export door slams
Beijing has now formalized its strategy: from January 1, 2026, silver exports fall under strict state‑trading controls and licensing through at least 2027. Exporters will need Ministry of Commerce approval, and only large, state‑sanctioned producers meeting high output thresholds will even qualify, effectively ring‑fencing more domestic mine supply for internal use and stockpiling.
This is not a random regulatory tweak; it mirrors China’s earlier playbook in rare earths, tungsten, and other strategic materials—tighten exports, secure domestic supply, and turn a raw material into geopolitical leverage. Once these curbs begin, the West will no longer be able to count on emergency silver shipments from China to bail out London or COMEX during a squeeze.
Silver as a 21st‑century weapon
Whoever controls the most silver will not just dominate jewelry or coins; they will anchor four pillars of power:
Industrial power – Silver is indispensable for high‑efficiency solar cells, advanced semiconductors, sensors, and precision manufacturing. Economic power – By controlling export flows and stockpiles, China can tighten or relax silver supply to influence inflation, production costs, and trade balances in rival economies. Technology power plus Robotics– From AI data centers and 5G infrastructure to EVs and next‑gen batteries, silver is baked into the hardware of the digital and green revolutions. Military power – Guidance systems, radar, secure communications, drones, missiles, torpedoes, and space assets all depend on silver‑rich electronics and specialized components. Silver is no longer just “poor man’s gold.” It is an arms‑race metal, and China’s decision to hoard, premium‑price, and restrict exports into 2026 is a declaration that the race is officially on. It is predicted that USA will not just roll over but try and win this war.
As BRICS vs NATO intensify the winner will be SILVER.
I have a limited knowledge about silver mining. I believe silver is a byproduct of copper mining as well as unique silver mines.
Minors gonna be more likely to drag their feet, with expectations of $200/oz
I just sold my gold and paid Cash for another house, if Silver goes to $250 I have more than enough to buy another house all cash!!!!
Silver Trading volume is exploding.
Dec 24, 2024 Comex futures contracts traded = 18,146
Dec 24, 2025 Comex futures contracts traded = 103,975
I do know that silver is not often the main reason for any particular mine - zinc and other mines get silver as a secondary result. I think Mexico might have primary silver mines but other types are more common.
I have quite a few old silver dollars, halves, dimes, nickels. Some are valuable, many are not and would be sold for melt value I guess.
I assume the price of silver doesn’t really affect the rare coin market, but those other coins?? Even at $72 (which was unthinkable a few years ago), I’ll sit tight and wait for the $250 I guess.
Spot was $76.10 a few minutes ago. Mr.GG2 and I are going to have a very Happy New Year. 😊
In looking at the stock and bond markets today, it appears they are mostly down.
Whereas, gold and silver markets are soaring on huge trading volumes.
Hopefully this is not a leading indicator of inflation.
Not feeling so bad about my $14 silver purchased during the Hunt brothers run in 1980....
Trump jaw boning interest rates lower devalues the dollar—putting upward pressure on hard assets AND inflation—so we’ll see.
Not feeling so bad about my $14 silver purchased during the Hunt brothers run in 1980....
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$4 Silver just before 9/11 was great also…I have no regrets. At that time, all the “ old” Silver was plentiful, and the Junk Silver wasn’t worn thin slugs.
Still time to stack….everyone complains about Inflation, but priced in Silver things have never been cheaper, ever.
Newly question, if you all will indulge me.
Suppose the banking system were to crash and we need to exchange out silver for something spendable. Do we wait for the U.S. currency to kick in rather than Fed Notes? My husband wants me to find all this out before we buy much more.
Thanks in advance.
What China appears to be trying to do recalls the Hunt Brothers back in the 1970s.
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A big negative. The Hunts traded in paper contracts, today China deals only in physical, needed for their huge manufacturing base.
Miners are sitting on historic profits of cash. Here is the “ pecking order “, Gold takes off, then physical Silver ALWAYS rockets up ( the people’s money)playing catch up ( here now), then when J six pack finally notices, jumps in to the cheaper Silver, then institutions pile into the paper miners ( just starting).
Silver miners have already given 150-200 percent since end of 2023. When the “ sheeple” jump on, expect 7x-50 x returns on miners, careful with the junior miners.
Bank on it…..the last two years have been the most profitable in my life ( I was around before the Hunt brothers)… as Jefferson said, ” paper is for the poor”…
He knew all about Paper currencies and Inflation back then.
Yes but there are other ways to get paid…
The big Pharma companies pay Fox News tens of millions.
You never see a critical story about them on Fox…
If history is any guide, you’re gonna see ten or more million Chinese stranded with their $75 silver as it drops back to $60. The behavior of the metals now is truly manic. Classic “last suckers jump in” price action. And maybe I’m wrong and it powers up to $100. The human brain concocts intense and sometimes unshakable delusions under these conditions.
The action is in the Industrial use, not store of value.
Silver Price Performance USD
Change Amount %
Today +4.96 +6.90%
30 Days +18.52 +34.68%
6 Months +35.92 +99.78%
1 Year +42.55 +144.91%
5 Year +45.54 +172.72%
20 Years +63.22 +727.20%
silverprice.org - 13:26 NY Time
Can’t argue with the numbers.
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