Posted on 12/24/2025 8:36:01 AM PST by Navy Patriot
The U.S. appears headed for the largest one-year drop in murders in history, according to a well-known crime analyst.
That's the conclusion of crime statistics expert Jeff Asher, who says new national data show killings plunging at a pace not seen in modern recordkeeping.
According to Asher's Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), the United States is on track for the biggest single-year decline in murders ever recorded — a striking reversal after the COVID-era crime surge.
Last month, FBI Director Kash Patel said the 2025 homicide rate will be the lowest in "modern history," crediting a bureau-wide shift toward fighting violent crime.
Independent analysts such as Asher say the data strongly point in that direction.
RTCI is a large national database that compiles reported crime data from hundreds of law enforcement agencies and is updated regularly, long before official federal numbers are released.
RTCI data currently available through October show murders down nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2024.
The index's glossary notes that its murder category excludes cases such as accidental deaths and deaths caused by negligence, meaning the index aims to track "willful (nonnegligent) killings," aligning closely with standard FBI definitions.
Asher earlier this fall cautioned that national crime estimates are often revised and that final "official" numbers can take years to settle.
Still, he argued the trend line is now so strong that the FBI will likely end up reporting the lowest U.S. murder rate ever recorded when full 2025 data are released, possibly dipping below the previous record low set in 2014.
The plunge in murders is also part of a broader drop in violent crime.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
Good. Condolences to family and friends of those murdered.
Hiring President Trump’s ICE “Nazis” has really knocked a hole in the DemonRATS’ crime rates and saved hundreds of American lives. Now that Mao Tse Prixster and other far left sewage like him consider American military personnel as “Nazis”, I think it’s time for President Trump to shut down the Great Lakes Naval Training Center. I don’t think Fats Prixster is going to want all those “Nazis” living that close to his fat butt.
Democrats hate this.
Good news. Roe v Wade reversal paying dividends...
Apparently White women need Concealed Carry
on trains and at Barnes and Noble to drop it
even lower - and drop a few perps at the same time
on subway 🚇🚇🚇 trains and light rail
I meant
Illegal murderer don’t want to wind up in El Salvador.
Not clear to me that the numbers are good. Love to see it happen in reality, BUT if some locations don’t report, then we don’t know where we actually are. And not all cities are reporting if I understand John Lott correctly. And him I trust.
It’s hard to hide murders. Assuming manslaughter is included in the counting. A lot of crimes are ignored for reporting purposes, but death certificates have to include manner of death. Most people have relatives who will notice if a homicide is classified as an accident. Apparently, some homicdes of isolated individuals have been classified as “accidents” by police chiefs trying to keep statistics down, but medical examiners have little incentive to go along.
That's bad news for THEM.
I don’t believe any crime stats anyway. The numbers are massaged at several layers of bureaucracy.
Right. If anything, murder rates should be going UP!
Now that the FBI/DOJ are forcing hell holes like Washington DC to report all crime stats.
Mao Tse Prixster - LOL!
Pol Pot Arbuckle.
Man, that would put The Hurt on Governor "Fats" Arbuckle and his ChiCongo powerbase/crime factory!
The criminal illegal alien scum crossing our boarders are the cast offs of mexico, central and south America and the third world as well as china, africa, india and many enemy moslem nations.
President Trumps herculean effort to rid our great country of the criminal illegal alien scum who abuse and murder our citizens and dip their filthy hands in to our tax moneys.
Supported, encouraged and helped by the democratic party and groups paid for by soros like billionaires using their money to attack the American people in an undeclared war. And to be sure it is a war with real causalities (VICTIMS OF ILLEGAL ALIENS MEMORIAL) http://ojjpac.org/memorial.asp.
These cowardly attackers are assisted by our own quislings, collaborators who are paid and self retarded idealistic fellow travelers.
Many are communists, socialists and or just plain fascists as well thieving grifters. Shout out to Minnesota’s Tampon tim, Ilhan Omar, please jail them or depot them or both........
And let not forget the other co conspirators, that includes the woke, demoRATs, liberals and the NGO’s that until recently were funded by usaid at the dirty hands of the democratic party.
I like yours better. ROTFL!
Trump has been effective on national security, reining in murder and theft.
Let the world’s biggest thief nations take notice, they could be next feeling justice hit them...
The FBI, ATF, Marshals, DEA and the changes in the courts and department of prisons may have contributed “some” to that.
Lots of factors which over shaddow the FBI and law enforcement in its entirety IMHO:
—Economy
—Immigration/border (that alone will impact the overall crime statistic more than the FBI)
—Drugs / law enforcement
—Our revamping of mental health from a governments approach. Long overdue. The US Federal govt became no more than a cash cow for big pharma over the last years. This is how the retard liberal media and in this case a Muslim Trump hating rag writes about it: https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2025/8/8/trump-and-the-global-rise-of-fascist-anti-psychiatry (if Obama had done this, the spin would be how awesome and ingenious it is)
IMHO, you’re seeing a lot of factors coming together.
Trump is results oriented. He runs government like it’s a business and has a solid understanding of ROI and opportunity cost, proper risk management a critical path, most likely and most dangerous course of action by an adversary, and cutting losses.
Folks like Biden and the Clinton were just pure politicians that take care of themselves. The Obama types are ideologists that are less worried about the end than the means to the end.
Seldom do we get someone like a Trump or Reagan, pragmatists that serve the nation and not themselves and the special interests that got them elected.
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