Corrections always happen. Nothing to see here.
Correction: when hope meets up with reality
My stock broker told me their economists were expecting a stock market correction for this last summer. It never came.
As was noted elsewhere, a correction is bound to happen sooner or later.
On the other hand, I’m reminded of this saying: Economists have predicted 5 of the last 2 recessions.
These guys can’t comprehend the scale of the economic expansion starting next year as 2-3 trillion dollars of capital investments come into the economy. To understand those numbers —capital investments in the USA this year are going to come into around 300 billion dollars.
The AI shell game will not end well. Amazon and Apple are in the best shape to endure it.
Isn’t the FED restarting QE in less than a month? Asset prices should keep steadily grinding up if that’s the case.
I’m with Gary. Shades of the dot.com bubble. Irrational exuberance.
We had a 15% correction in May. How much of a correction do we need?
As long as the stock market has a huge tailwind from monthly 401K contributions flowing into the S&P 500, nothing will change.
“Lots in the news today from many “experts” about an economic reckoning coming soon.”
That’s because that is what they want. If enough “experts” get aboard with the narrative, the reckoning will be self-fulling as people panic.
One thing that has been continually increasing is the stock market. That irritates the never-Trumpers and the left because they want to be able to say “The stock market is crashing...orangemanbad!” and thus far they haven’t been able to do that. The handful of “down” days have been few and far between and then the markets return to setting new records.
“S&P 500 could sink 30%”
He is correct, it could sink 30%
We know this because it has sunk 30% or more many time in the past.
I agree, the past year or so has been among the most productive (eg; bullish) I have ever seen in 20+ years. Concentered, of course, in the tech darlings. There are some stocks that market can not handle not owning.
But I’d also imagine that hanging on to certain stocks, perhaps with some judicial trimming, through such a drawdown will outperform trying to beat the crowd out the door and then trying to re-enter.
When COVID hit, my wealthy friend to whom I often give stock advice loaded up on SPY, the SP500 etf, at 305. Today it’s 684.
I found him Palantir at 18. Now 200.
The smart money has been getting out of equities for a while and into gold, silver, land, and similar investments.
Tremendous speculation
Sounds a lot like TDS it’s not the first time and won’t be the last speculation at best is a dice roll.
Political motivation in all this? To hurt Trump?
Trump manipulates his messaging to talk stocks up.
Do his enemies message to talk stocks down?
Grock: “Quantitative analyses peg his broad market forecast accuracy at around 34-38% — worse than random chance (50%) for up-or-down calls”
There’s a froth developing and 30% is not unreasonable.
Here's the problem/challenge I see. If you sell your stocks to avoid a drop in the market, you will pay 15% tax of your gain. If you hold (don't sell) and it takes 2-3 years to recover - will you do better than if you had sold to avoid a recession?
I believe your time-horizon for investing is the key to answering the sell or hold question.
Like many investors, I bailed in the 2000 dot.com recession and the 07-08 recession. Mistake both times !!!!