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On Russia-Ukraine, the misdiagnosed patient is flatlining
Responsible Statecraft ^ | Oct 27, 2025 | George Beebe

Posted on 10/28/2025 12:10:05 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum

All along we've been told this was about aggressive expansionism and applied a strategy of deterrence. That was wrong.

With the imposition of new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s dismissal of visiting Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev as a “propagandist,” the Trump administration’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine seem to be hanging by a thread.

Their success or failure will depend on a simple premise: one must understand a problem in order to resolve it. Unfortunately, the West has been misdiagnosing the problem it faces in Ukraine for more than a decade, with increasingly tragic consequences. And the time in which President Trump can correct this diagnosis — and corresponding policy prescription — is quickly running out.

Since at least 2014, the year of Ukraine’s Maidan Revolution and Russia’s subsequent decision to annex Crimea and back separatist fighters in the Donbass region, the West’s foreign policy stalwarts have regarded Russia’s military actions against Ukraine as something that President Putin views as an elective, an “unprovoked” ambition to acquire land and rebuild empire that is little more than a product of Russia’s authoritarian impulses.

As a result of this diagnosis, they have focused their efforts on raising the costs to Putin of conducting the war, cranking up pressure on Russia’s economy, ensuring that its military suffers high personnel and equipment losses, and attempting to turn Russians into international pariahs. If Putin sees that his grab for power and prestige has only produced weakness and humiliation, they reason, he will withdraw his invasion force or otherwise bow to Ukrainian terms for a settlement.

This diagnosis has also shaped Western terms for any post-settlement order. It underpins the insistence that Ukraine must be backed by a NATO Article V-style guarantee and/or a...

(Excerpt) Read more at responsiblestatecraft.org ...


TOPICS: Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: bookschlep; deadbeatbookshelf; demagogue; dnctalkingpoint; dnctalkingpoints; freeploaderbookshelf; georgebeebe; mediawingofthednc; panicporn; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; spammingfr; yammeringneocons
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Oh poor misunderstood Russia. They invaded Ukraine and tried to take Kyiv because they were scared and now they can’t stop fighting because their failure to capture Kyiv scared them even more and it is just stupidity on the part of the west to think Russia is in any way a threat to NATO or anyone else. In fact they are so scared they’d like the new border to be along the Elbe. And if that seems crazy then you are a NEOCON Jew Bastard and we have hypersonic missiles and will nuke you because we are mad as outhouse rats.

Sorry Puty Put pound sand and piss up a rope. We are going for regime change now not a cease fire and we are going to put antipsychotics in the Moscow drinking water so we don’t have to listen to crazy shit like this in the future.


21 posted on 10/28/2025 1:42:29 PM PDT by your other brother
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To: your other brother


22 posted on 10/28/2025 1:49:12 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Je suis Charlie Kirk.)
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To: your other brother

23 posted on 10/28/2025 1:49:49 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Je suis Charlie Kirk.)
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To: Captain Peter Blood

Once Nuclear weapons are used then we are all dead. There will be nothing left.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////

That is something for you to tell the UK and French leadership.


24 posted on 10/28/2025 1:55:15 PM PDT by Owen
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To: kiryandil

Changing the subject a bit, Polls show American’s want Trump to spend
less time on Foreign Affairs (Ukraine-Ruzzia: Israel-Hamas, etc) and more
time on fixing the American Economy.
Rich Barris was on Steve Bannon’ War Room This Morning and that’s what
his polling shows.


25 posted on 10/28/2025 1:56:26 PM PDT by tennmountainman ( (“Less propaganda would be appreciated.” JimRobr 12-2-2023 DITTO)
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To: Captain Peter Blood
There is no such thing as a winnable Nuclear War.

We have the same biology, regardless of ideology...

26 posted on 10/28/2025 1:57:04 PM PDT by Sirius Lee ("Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.”)
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To: kiryandil

“You’re gonna be surprised when you find out the Western Media has been lying to you.”

It’s really a step down when Leftist propaganda stories continue to be posted on FR, but I guess JR is good with that.

Anyway, for people who actually follow the war and discard the propaganda, Russia will NEVER agree to anything ending the war based on Western promises. They made that mistake in 2014 and have no inclination to make that mistake again.


27 posted on 10/28/2025 2:00:02 PM PDT by BobL (Trusting one's doctor is the #1 health mistake one can make.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Putin’s primary motivation for invading was his belief that the United States and NATO were steadily deepening their security involvement inside an increasingly anti-Russian Ukraine

So to provide evidence that NATO has no justification for its deterrence program, Putin invades a neighboring country that is not part of NATO.

28 posted on 10/28/2025 2:36:50 PM PDT by daniel1212 (Turn 2 the Lord Jesus who saves damned+destitute sinners on His acct, believe, b baptized+follow HIM)
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To: daniel1212
Still denying it's a proxy war, I see.


29 posted on 10/28/2025 3:03:58 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Je suis Charlie Kirk.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

He left out 40,000 children have been kidnaped by Russia, Russia wanted all of Ukraine that led to the invasion in 2022. And he didn’t mention Russia is attacking as many civilians at night as he is military during the day. Crazy thing is if Putin had captured Ukraine, he would be closer to NATO countries than he had been. And because Putin invaded Ukraine there are several more members in NATO now than before. Four new nations in NATO on his borders.


30 posted on 10/28/2025 3:21:19 PM PDT by POGO163
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To: kiryandil

If Putin had already taken the Donbas he would not be asking for it for a stoppage of fighting.


31 posted on 10/28/2025 3:25:23 PM PDT by POGO163
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To: Petrosius

The Irony of your post is that the west did not respect Ukrainian independence either, which is why they overthrew the elected Ukrainian government and handpicked the successor.

Successors that then went on to send extremist irregular units to terrorize ethnic Russians in the east, and change laws to disenfranchise them.

The west also wants to force Ukraine into their orbit.


32 posted on 10/28/2025 3:35:10 PM PDT by Mount Athos
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To: POGO163

You still haven’t figured out that the 40,000 kidnapped children claim is a hoax?


33 posted on 10/28/2025 3:37:14 PM PDT by Mount Athos
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
The West would pledge not to bring Ukraine into NATO, put Western combat troops in Ukraine after a settlement, or provide Kyiv with long-range strike weapons.

So Ukraine's guarantee from a future Putin invasion is = nothing.

Ukraine already signed an agreement with Putin in 2003, in which he recognized Ukraine's borders. So signing additional agreements with Putin, without real enforcement is pointless.

2003 “Treaty Between the Russian Federation and Ukraine on the Russian–Ukrainian State Border”, in which Russia recognized Ukraine's borders.


34 posted on 10/28/2025 3:51:58 PM PDT by tlozo (“We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump)
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To: Mount Athos
The west also wants to force Ukraine into their orbit.

LOL, no country is forced to join the EU or NATO

"How to join nato vs how to join russia"


35 posted on 10/28/2025 3:57:17 PM PDT by tlozo (“We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump)
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To: packrat35
---- "Why are we there? I ask this in all seriousness. Why are we involved at all. I know Russia is bad and I don't support them, but Ukraine is not an ally, friend, or even necessary for our defense."

Thanks for thinking I might have a satisfactory answer. I don't.

Some very active, aggressive Freepers say the US in involved because of "strategic interests," though often they are light on details. They claim some sort of "cold warrior" stance, as if today is quite like the era of President Reagan. The national debt in that time stood at less than $ 3 trillion. Today it is over $ 37 trillion. Things have changed.

Others posit a moral "black hat" Russia beating up "defenseless" and "white hat" Russia, as if some imagery carries the argument straight out of an old black and white cowboy and Indian TV series. Some use some form of "we're the boss" and every other nation should obey, "masters of the universe" stances.

Some boast their enthusiasm for nuclear war -- sources upon request -- and some see a variety of other reasons. I suspect these are BS rhetoric, for those who would actually yearn for nuclear war cannot hold either Christian or Jewish beliefs.

I see much in the large context of our national health. First and foremost for me, we have tripped over into $38 trillion in public debt at the federal level, with massive amounts of debts seemingly hidden in state, county, municipal and school district debt -- all kicking the can into tomorrow. Debt is not an answer; it is a problem. I see it as THE problem.

But if one's PERSONAL life in invested in making a living from war -- then, "just another wafer thin mint" in the Monty Python joke -- makes some sort of sense. I suspect President Trump is navigating dangerous and subtly changing political shoals, between "nuke 'em" and "concessions" of some sort. Few will be happy with whatever the eventual outcome will be, but there will be an outcome. How it will be seen and understood is an yet to be seen.

Unless one is a five start armchair general commenting on a thread. For such, I personally have been called a "Putin stooge," a "Chinese Communist apologist," "pompous" and my favorite, "evil."

The war between officially non-NATO Ukraine and non-NATO Russia has been slicing through the conservative world of FR like a hot knife through warm butter. Until "whatever the end is" is, I suspect this can only enlarge and enrage.

If an as it adds more to the enormous national debt, it is a tragedy for our United States. No matter which side "wins." Is it a loss for Ukraine and Russia also? Yup. And therein lies the folly writ large over today.

Best wishes for asking a question in a serious manner.

36 posted on 10/28/2025 3:59:21 PM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
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To: Mount Athos
the west did not respect Ukrainian independence either, which is why they overthrew the elected Ukrainian government

Here is the "West" overthrowing the Ukrainian government or the reality, Ukrainians decided a corrupt tyrannical president should be removed from office

Ukraine’s parliament has voted 328 of the 447 deputies, to remove President Viktor Yanukovich from office


37 posted on 10/28/2025 4:11:32 PM PDT by tlozo (“We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth,” Trump)
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To: tlozo

Did you notice the number of deputies who voted was below the threshold required by the constitution, which means he was unconstitutionally overthrown.

AKA a coup


38 posted on 10/28/2025 5:05:37 PM PDT by Mount Athos
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To: Mount Athos

The bozo doesn’t notice ANYTHING inconvenient when it comes to his love, The Ukraine.


39 posted on 10/28/2025 5:24:11 PM PDT by kiryandil (No one in AZ that voted for Trump voted for Gallego )
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To: tennmountainman

Excellent.


40 posted on 10/28/2025 5:25:02 PM PDT by kiryandil (No one in AZ that voted for Trump voted for Gallego )
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