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NASA May Have Put the Nail in the Coffin for Sierra Space Dream Chaser... [13:15]
YouTube ^ | October 3, 2025 | Ellie in Space

Posted on 10/03/2025 10:54:28 AM PDT by SunkenCiv

[snip] In fact, I saw someone who actually worked on the Sierra Space Dreamchaser comment about this. I wanted to interview him, but right now he's working for SpaceX, which means he can't do interviews. But he wrote, "I spent years tiling this ship, drilling composites and making every detail perfect. Management was a disaster and even tried to convince us they were on par with SpaceX. Now that I work on Starship, comments like that sound even more childish than before. RIP Chaser never to be." [/snip] 
NASA May Have Put the Nail in the Coffin for Sierra Space Dream Chaser... | 13:15 
Ellie in Space | 210K subscribers | 3,990 views | October 3, 2025
NASA May Have Put the Nail in the Coffin for Sierra Space Dream Chaser... | 13:15 | Ellie in Space | 210K subscribers | 3,990 views | October 3, 2025

(Excerpt) Read more at youtube.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Science
KEYWORDS: blueorigin; boeing; dreamchaser; ellieinspace; nasa; northropgrumman; sierraspace; sls; spacex; starship; ula

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--> YouTube-Generated Transcript <--
0:00·Do you remember that viral clip of a
0:02·former Aryan Space CEO talking about how
0:06·SpaceX's dream of reusable rockets was
0:10·just that, just a dream?
0:12·Richard, where do you see your company
0:13·competing with a $15 million launch?
0:16·Am I connected? Yes.
0:16·Yes.
0:17·Um, so today, um, I mean, SpaceX hasn't
0:20·launched into the geostationary orbit
0:22·yet, but I mean, they're doing very well
0:24·and their progress is going forward
0:25·amazingly well. Um, what I'm discovering
0:28·in the market though is that SpaceX
0:31·primarily seems to be selling uh a
0:33·dream, which is good. We should all
0:35·dream. I mean, I think the $5 million
0:38·launch or $15 million is is a bit of the
0:40·dream. Uh, personally, I think
0:42·reusability is a dream. Um, and I think
0:47·recently I was at a session where I was
0:50·told that there's no recovery plan
0:51·because they're not going to have any
0:53·failures. So, I think that's a part of a
0:55·dream. So at the moment I feel that
0:58·we're looking and you're presenting to
1:00·me how am I going to respond to a dream
1:02·and my answer to respond to a dream is
1:05·first of all you don't wake people up
1:07·they have to wake up on their own and
1:09·then when the once the market has woken
1:11·up to the dream and the reality then
1:13·we'll compete with that
1:15·but they are looking at a price which is
1:18·about half yours today
1:19·it's a dream
1:20·well
1:22·all right supposing that you wake up and
1:25·they're there what would you Arian space
1:26·do?
1:27·Uh we would have to react to it. I mean
1:29·if you know they're not supermen so
1:32·whatever they can do we can do. We would
1:33·we would then have to follow
1:36·but today at the moment we don't see it
1:38·as a
1:39·super women are.
1:40·Yeah. Yeah.
1:42·So you know I mean really it's a
1:44·theoretical question at this moment in
1:46·time.
1:47·Yeah. I I I personally don't believe
1:48·it's going to be theoretical for that
1:50·much longer. They've done everything
1:51·they've almost said they can do. I mean
1:52·that's true. Well, I thought about this
1:54·clip recently, not because of SpaceX,
1:56·because they've clearly proved that
1:58·reusability is a thing, but because of
2:01·that word dream and dream chaser. In
2:05·fact, I have never made a video about
2:07·Sierra Space's dream chaser, and it was
2:10·one of the first videos that I was told
2:13·to make when I was starting my channel,
2:15·Ellie in Space. Now, this was all the
2:16·way back in 2021. I wasn't really that
2:19·familiar with any of the, you know,
2:22·rockets at that point and had to learn
2:25·my way around the different companies,
2:27·SpaceX, Blue Origin, ULA, and of course,
2:31·you know, one of those Boeing, of
2:32·course, and one of those being Sierra
2:34·Space. But here we are over four years
2:37·later, and I still have never made that
2:40·video about Dreamchaser, and that's
2:42·because it still has yet to fly. And the
2:45·reason I'm making this video is because
2:46·we got some pretty unfortunate news,
2:48·which makes me think that we probably
2:50·won't see it fly until at least 2027.
2:54·And even then, uh, it's it's not looking
2:56·good. And I'm going to explain why. Now,
2:58·RS Technica put out a great article,
3:01·which is what clued me into what's going
3:02·on with Sierra Space. And I wanted to
3:06·cover it when it came out last week, but
3:08·I got married last week, so I'm a little
3:10·bit late to the party. But I figured
3:12·that not a lot of people are talking
3:13·about this on YouTube. So, let's get
3:15·into it. Sierra Space's Dreamchaser has
3:18·been in development for quite a while,
3:20·which is not unique. A lot of these
3:22·space projects, space vehicles, take
3:24·more time and more money than originally
3:27·planned. However, not only is this
3:30·taking more time than expected, it also
3:32·had government backing, which has
3:34·recently been pulled back a bit...
3:37·[ad text redacted]
4:59·...Dreamchaser is a
5:02·lifting body space plane being developed
5:04·by Sierra Space and the cargo version is
5:07·called Dreamchaser Tenacity. It's
5:10·designed to carry pressurized and
5:12·unpressurized cargo to low Earth orbit
5:15·and then return to Earth and land on a
5:17·runway like a small plane. It uses a
5:20·detachable cargo module called shooting
5:23·star which burns up on re-entry while
5:25·the space plane returns. And its design
5:27·is actually derived from NASA's old HL20
5:31·concept from the 90s. So it's a bit
5:34·different than Dragon or Starlininer. It
5:36·doesn't parachute down. It's a winged
5:39·sort of vehicle that glides and lands.
5:41·And that gives it some advantages if it
5:44·can be made to work reliably. But how
5:46·did we get here to this point where I've
5:48·known about this but really haven't been
5:50·compelled to cover it because not much
5:52·is happening. Well, here's a rough
5:54·summary of the rough road that
5:56·Dreamchaser has had. Originally, Sierra
5:59·proposed a crude Dreamchaser under
6:02·NASA's commercial crew programs in the
6:05·2010s, but lost out to Boeing
6:08·Starlininer and SpaceX's Dragon in the
6:10·key awards. Rather than giving up,
6:12·Sierra pivoted the design to cargo
6:14·missions to serve the ISS under
6:16·contract. And as of now, the first
6:19·flight demo 1 is scheduled for late
6:22·2026.
6:24·But, and this is the big butt, NASA and
6:27·Sierra Space have just modified their
6:30·contract such that NASA is no longer
6:33·obligated to accept Dreamchaser for ISS
6:36·resupply. Instead, they'll do a free
6:39·flying demonstration in late 2026, which
6:42·many space experts are saying basically
6:45·translates to probably 2027. And here's
6:48·a quote from NASA. Development of new
6:50·space transportation systems is
6:52·difficult and can take longer than
6:54·what's originally planned. The ability
6:56·to perform a flight demonstration can be
6:59·a key enabler in a spacecraft's
7:01·development and readiness. Another blunt
7:04·phrasing in reporting, NASA says it is
7:06·quote no longer obligated to order ISS
7:09·resupply missions from Sierra. Also, the
7:11·plan to have Dreamchas or dock with the
7:14·ISS has been dropped for that first
7:16·flight. Instead, SSC Demo 1 will be a
7:18·free flyer mission. And remember, ISS is
7:21·scheduled to deorbit in 2030. It's the
7:25·reason that the Boeing Starlininer also
7:27·has a precarious fate considering that
7:29·it's only had well half of a mission.
7:32·And I can't even call it one because it
7:33·came back uncrrewed and they may use it
7:37·for cargo soon. But again, once we have
7:39·a different space station and the ISS
7:42·has retired, Starlininer will basically
7:44·be obsolete. So because Dreamchaser, if
7:47·and when it flies, is not going to birth
7:50·with the space station. Now that
7:52·guaranteed business was taken away. NASA
7:55·had previously committed to multiple
7:57·cargo flights under CRS2, but now those
8:00·are optional, contingent on success.
8:03·This means a lot more risk for Sierra
8:05·and the demonstration could fail or be
8:08·delayed. And many analysts see this as a
8:10·huge blow. So basically, the safety nets
8:12·being pulled away even before the plane
8:14·has flown a full mission, the margin for
8:17·error shrinks. So why is this so crazy
8:20·and I think pretty newsworthy? Well,
8:22·this is an extremely ambitious vehicle
8:24·combining rocket ascent, orbital
8:26·operations, re-entry heating, and a
8:28·runway landing. That set of capabilities
8:31·has very few precedents. The space plane
8:34·concept is tough to get right. The space
8:37·shuttle was a triumph, but expensive and
8:39·fragile. It suffered from thermal
8:41·protection, maintenance, complexity,
8:43·etc. And Dreamchaser has to solve these
8:46·problems better. Dreamchaser's heat
8:48·shield uses tiles comparable in spirit
8:51·to shuttle tiles, but fewer in number
8:53·and larger in size. For example, about
8:55·2,000 tiles versus 24,000 tiles for a
8:58·shuttle orbiter. But each tile is unique
9:01·in size, thickness, and shape and has to
9:04·withstand re-entry stress. Sierra claims
9:07·their material is stronger, but it's
9:08·still a risk. In fact, I saw someone who
9:11·actually worked on the Sierra Space
9:13·Dreamchaser comment about this. I wanted
9:15·to interview him, but right now he's
9:17·working for SpaceX, which means he can't
9:19·do interviews. But he wrote, "I spent
9:21·years tiling this ship, drilling
9:23·composites and making every detail
9:25·perfect. Management was a disaster and
9:28·even tried to convince us they were on
9:30·par with SpaceX. Now that I work on
9:32·Starship, comments like that sound even
9:34·more childish than before. RIP Chaser
9:36·never to be." And this was after Sierra
9:39·Space posted on September 25th.
9:41·Dreamchaser's first flight will be a
9:43·free flyer demonstration mission which
9:45·is expected to prove the technology and
9:47·deliver critical data to NASA. We
9:49·believe this approach will provide us
9:50·with the flexibility to address the
9:52·nation's most pressing national security
9:55·space challenges while continuing to
9:57·advance Dreamchaser's capabilities for
9:59·NASA and commercial customers. Our team
10:00·will be prioritizing first flight
10:02·readiness with Dreamchaser, targeting a
10:04·launch in late 2026 to align with
10:06·expected launch vehicle availability as
10:09·we position Dreamchaser as a national
10:12·asset available for future national
10:14·security and defense demonstrations. H
10:16·which to me kind of seems like they're
10:18·trying to put a positive spin on a
10:20·pretty devastating development. And yes,
10:22·I tried to do my due diligence to reach
10:25·out to Sierra Space for an interview. I
10:27·was happy that they answered me. It's
10:29·not always the case, but uh you know,
10:31·they said, "Thanks for my interest. We
10:33·appreciate your work." And right now,
10:35·the team is fully focused on vehicle
10:37·testing at SSPF. So, they're unable to
10:40·participate in interviews, but I did
10:43·reach out to them and they sort of
10:44·commented basically that they can't at
10:46·this time. So, I do appreciate that. And
10:48·so at this point, we compare Dreamchaser
10:50·to some of the other options and we see
10:52·why Dreamchaser not yet even proven uh
10:56·you know it's going to be tough for them
10:58·to get into the game. For example,
10:59·Dragon obviously the workhorse. NASA
11:02·trusts Dragon. It's proven and it's got
11:04·economies of scale. Starlininer has
11:06·suffered repeated delays, um software
11:09·safety issues, but you know, it still
11:12·may be able to deliver cargo to the ISS.
11:14·I think we might at least see one more
11:16·mission out of Starlininer. Signis is
11:18·simpler, just cargo, uh, doesn't return
11:21·anything, but has been proven to work.
11:23·And Dreamchaser, of course, is trying to
11:25·be the best of both worlds, but that
11:27·means facing more technical challenges
11:29·than a simple capsule or cargo
11:31·dispenser. So, the change to a free
11:33·flyer first mission with no docking is a
11:36·telling sign. Unfortunately, with this
11:38·pivot, I feel like Dreamchaser is losing
11:40·its biggest reason for existing. And
11:43·this is happening all over the place in
11:45·the space industry. SLS of course.
11:48·Unfortunately, cost overruns and
11:50·significant delays of legacy space
11:53·providers is probably dooming the Sierra
11:56·space project now. And worst case
11:58·scenario, Dreamchaser ends up being kind
12:00·of an expensive engineering museum
12:02·piece, never delivering on its promises
12:03·or shipped off to a corporate graveyard.
12:06·Could it happen? It could. And I I
12:09·really hope that, you know, maybe I'm
12:11·wrong. Maybe in 2026, late 2026, they'll
12:14·launch and they'll get things going and
12:16·they'll have some successful missions.
12:17·But I just wanted to finally talk about
12:20·this. I feel like, you know, um the way
12:22·that it was worded, it kind of seems
12:24·optimistic and I see it as, you know, uh
12:29·moving backwards and in the wrong
12:30·direction. So, here's my first and who
12:33·knows, maybe last video. Probably not.
12:36·We'll probably have more developments
12:37·with uh Sierra Space Dreamchaser, but it
12:39·is another reason that, you know, I'm
12:41·not over here constantly trying to be a
12:43·SpaceX fan girl, but they deliver. And I
12:46·think SpaceX is the reason that we will
12:49·actually secure a real presence in space
12:51·for the foreseeable future. So, thank
12:54·you so much for watching this video. I
12:55·hope that you guys enjoyed it. I
12:57·appreciate all of your support on Ellie
12:59·Space. If you liked it, please make sure
13:01·to give it a thumbs up, subscribe to my
13:04·channel. It's free. and I'll see you in
13:05·the next video.
13:10·[Music]

1 posted on 10/03/2025 10:54:28 AM PDT by SunkenCiv
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; BraveMan; cardinal4; ...
The drop test they did years ago led to a broken bit of landing gear, which the company spinelessly blamed on the manufacturer of the gear.

They needed to do at least a suborbital reentry demo long ago. Bupkis.

Because there are more cargo missions overall, they tried to bassackwards the design into that.

The company and its assets need to be sold, leaving what passes for the mgmt on the side of the road.

2 posted on 10/03/2025 10:57:53 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (NeverTrumpin' -- it's not just for DNC shills anymore -- oh, wait, yeah it is.)
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3 posted on 10/03/2025 11:03:42 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (NeverTrumpin' -- it's not just for DNC shills anymore -- oh, wait, yeah it is.)
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To: SunkenCiv
I loved the look back at the snobbish comments of the Ariane Space CEO, thumbing his nose at SpaceX and the idea of reusable rockets. Gee, turned out SpaceX was populated with “supermen” after all.

Ellie is a little quirky, but she does a great job reporting on space news with her YouTube channel. And if you listen closely to some of the things she’s let slip along the way, it’s obvious she’s a conservative as well. I think SNC tried to approach the development of Dreamchaser the same way that NASA approached developing the SLS and every vehicle before it. They took the approach of attempting to engineer the perfect final product before ever flying it. That can work, but it takes a very long time during which nothing much happens, which can cause those financing the project to get cold feet and pull the plug (as has apparently happened).

If SpaceX had developed Dreamchaser, they would have had at least drop tests within a few months, and a first launch not too long after that. That first prototype would look like something that someone built in their garage, but it would provide crucial real-world data to be used to refine and build the next version. From then on, they would be flying at a rapid pace, learning, iterating, and flying again until they relatively quickly had a much more sophisticated prototype that worked well. And as all of that was happening, the financial backers would be able to see continuous progress with their own eyes, not just paper dreams.

There’s only one SpaceX, but by now there should be others trying to follow their blueprint for success. I have to wonder if the reason there aren’t more companies tying to do what they do is because the traditional approach is a recipe for raking in development cash without having to spend much of it in actual development. You keep talking big and taking in more money, spending as little as possible along the way, and milk that “dream” for as long as you can.

SpaceX on the other hand spends the money they receive on actual development as fast as they can. They also commercialize their technology in any way they can to generate additional development capital. They’ve really shone a spotlight on the corruption and sloth of the traditional companies such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, etc.

4 posted on 10/03/2025 11:31:47 AM PDT by noiseman (The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.)
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To: noiseman

Excellent post. I too enjoyed the snobbish comments from the French former CEO of Arianespace.

I wonder what other kind of snotty comments have come out of his mouth since then, that made it past the Foi gras in there!


5 posted on 10/03/2025 11:49:48 AM PDT by rlmorel (Factio Communistica Sinensis Delenda Est.)
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To: noiseman

Spot on.

The Dreamchaser — if it were completed and tested — would be an ideal crew vehicle for launch to and reentry from orbit. But the company hasn’t even made an effort to build a launch vehicle to put anything up there.

When they pivoted from chasing dream to chasing cargo missions, development of their glider should have been suspended and a launch vehicle developed.

Building a reusable that doesn’t reach velocity sufficient to burn it up on reentry (the Falcon 9 approach) appears to be well within reach of many a startup.


6 posted on 10/03/2025 12:03:48 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (NeverTrumpin' -- it's not just for DNC shills anymore -- oh, wait, yeah it is.)
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To: rlmorel

Of course, Elon’s response was to heap some scorn on the Ariane 5 during that long wait for the (non-reusable) 6.


7 posted on 10/03/2025 12:05:29 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (NeverTrumpin' -- it's not just for DNC shills anymore -- oh, wait, yeah it is.)
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To: SunkenCiv

Hmm...don’t think I could envision any other outcome there!


8 posted on 10/03/2025 1:17:46 PM PDT by rlmorel (Factio Communistica Sinensis Delenda Est.)
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