Posted on 09/25/2025 10:24:39 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Sales of newly built homes rose a much larger-than-expected 20.5% in August compared with July to the highest level since January 2022, according to the U.S. Census. It is also the largest one-month gain since August 2022. Sales were 15.4% higher than August 2024.
This count is based on people out shopping in August and signing deals, when the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was higher than it is today. That rate started August at 6.63%, according to Mortgage News Daily, and didn’t really move much during the month.
The sharp decline in rates began in September, when it fell to a three-year low of 6.13% the day before the Federal Reserve cut its lending rate, and then moved higher to where it is now at 6.37%.
Given that rates hadn’t fallen yet, it’s curious that August sales jumped so high. Part of the answer may be in the survey itself.
“We were expecting a gain but not that large,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders. “Always important to remember the margin of error for new home sales is large. We’ll need to wait for revisions next month and the September data point to see if this is smoothed out.”
Homebuilder analyst Ivy Zelman of Zelman & Associates said the number was “directionally right, but the magnitude was way too high.”
Zelman conducts her own survey, which has a higher sample size spanning 15% of homebuilders, and it showed a sales increase of 6% year over year, she said.
While builders have talked a lot about cutting prices and incentives, the median price of a new home sold in August was $413,500, in increase of 1.9% year over year.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
New home sales were strongest in the Northeast, where overall new construction is low, so swings can be large. It was also strong in the South, where homebuilding is busiest. Sales, while higher, were weakest in the West, where prices are highest.
6.6% 30 year rate, about normal from my perspective. Actually not bad at all compared to what I have paid in the last 50 years that ranged from 6% to 14%.
Houses and just about everything else are too high now though. They went up too much in covid.
yes, everything is too high. You can’t leave McDonalds these days for under $100
Housing demand being so inelastic, it will be interesting to see what getting rid of millions of illegal aliens will do to home prices and therefore subsequent construction (often performed largely by illegal aliens).
The mortgage rate needs to continue to drop, bring it to covid levels, during covid, never ever saw a boom like that before
New home sales soar 20%
Gee I guess I can get a bigger tent now with flaps.
Yes, and it’s a great time to get an ARM loan and ride the rates down. Home prices will rise faster as mortgage rates drop.
When interest rates go up, home prices slow their rise and then start to drop. When interest rates go down home prices rise again due to better affordability. Then Builders build more, causing prices to stagnate again when supply catches up with demand.
Lots of money to be made over time if you play it right as a homeowner and/or an investor.
Not near me. Homes have gone from 2 weeks on the market, to four months. Finally the investment goons have stopped buying. Hopefully some downward price pressures do their job.
As far as I am concerned, if you buy a home for anything other than to live in and enjoy you bought it for the wrong reason.
Getting rid of illegals also reduces demand for housing.
Things are a little slow in Scottsdale but prices holding steady.
How many people you buying for? I can go to my local brewery, have a few beers a nice meal for the wife and I, leave a 25% tip for under $70.
I live in Torrance, Ca. and every home that goes up for sale is sold within a few days.
I buy because I want to decide where I live and when I move. Since 2000 I’ve always had two homes. Real estate money is the easiest money to make. I started at 35 and retired at 60. I made a lot of money off my homes and other real estate investing, most people don’t know the strategies involved. I also speculated on raw land and had rentals. I also developed land. Rentals are all gone, I make more money now than when I worked just pushing buttons on the computer. I carry mortgages for people following my path now.
China/other foreign investors?
If you read what I wrote more carefully, you would know that is clearly implied in the post, however implicitly.
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