Posted on 09/08/2025 12:30:10 PM PDT by nickcarraway
If Brock Purdy’s game-winning touchdown pass to Jake Tonges against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1 felt like an improbable play, it’s because it essentially was.
The completion, which had a 14.7 percent chance per NFL Next Gen Stats, gave San Francisco a 17-13 lead with 1:34 remaining in the game.
>>Brock Purdy's game-winning TD to Jake Tonges had a completion probability of 14.7%, the most improbable completion of the week entering SNF.
Purdy was traveling 15.98 mph when he let it go, while Tonges had 0.4 yards of separation when the ball arrived.<<
The 49ers quarterback connected with the third-year tight end while running at a speed of almost 16 miles per hour, per Next Gen Stats, as Purdy scrambled right and threw up what seemed to be a prayer.
As if those numbers weren’t wild enough, Next Gen Stats also states that Tonges had 0.4 yards of separation.
The score was Purdy’s second passing touchdown of the 2025 season and it couldn’t have come at a better time.
The 26-year-old Tonges, who was likely even in the game due to George Kittle’s hamstring injury, entered the game with one target and zero catches over the course of his career and made a bit of history himself, according to ESPN's Nick Wagoner.
However, Tonges made sure to make his presence felt against the Seahawks and finished with three catches for 15 yards for the 49ers in the win.
Nick Wagoner @nwagoner
#49ers TE Jake Tonges is the first player since the 1970 merger to make a game-winning touchdown catch in the final two minutes of a season opening game when coming off a 0 reception season (or career in his case).
This Tight End never made a catch in the NFL before yesterday. He had a couple tackles in 2024, and he had a target on the Chicago Bears in 2022.
It was an amazing catch, and there is picture showing the similarities with Dwight Clark's famous catch in the 1982 NFC Championship, but I couldn't find it.
The pass when thrown looked more likely to produce an interception, than a reception or an incompletion. QB buying that receiver some kind of sweet expensive gift on the down low.
Crabtree!!
About 1 out of seven of those would be caught. Hardly miraculous.
And those numbers are important because?
Wasted post.
I don’t get where they come up with that number, but it was the least probable catch in all 16 games this week.
It's similar to "The Catch" by Dwight Clark in the 1982 NFC Championship. Montana put it up where his guy could make a play, and trusted he would.
Why?
And first TD catch as a rookie to boot
The infostats are getting absurd. Did you know that Jake Tonges was the first player named Jake Tonges to make a touchdown catch with 1:47 left in a game on a Sunday in September in NFL history? /s
I believe you understand this better than most. I too remember the “catch.” Analysts called it risky, stupid. Others call it miraculous. Montana said there was no other location to throw the football. Purdy did the same thing and I think this young guy needs to start getting respect. He has hardly any offensive weapons due to injury and Tongas did his job.
But also, unfortunately, it was a touchdown that came in slop time, after the game was long over, and it didn't impact the game.
Compared to a great catch that decided a divisional game. At the end of the season, that may determine who wins the division, who goes to the playoffs.
If the Seahawks player had just swatted it down instead of going for an “interception” (the ball was up for grabs for anyone in the area) they probably would have kicked to tie up the game.
Of course the Seahawks still probably would have fumbled rather than going for a kick and it would have gone into OT and we would have found another way to lose (speaking as a Seahawks fan).
People are ignoring the time of possession. For most of the game it was 2-1, and the 49ers ended up with 37:59. It enable their defense to stay rested, and do well.
The 49ers were 7 of 14 on 3rs down, and Seattle was 3 for 10. The 49ers were 2 for 2 on 4th down. The 49ers special teams hurt them, and so did penalties. Purdy was pressured on 57.9% of plays, the most of his career, but they only got one sack, as Purdy scrambled out of trouble, like he does.
Purdy also had the third highest EPA, behind Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love.
He is also 4-0 at Lumen Field. This was the first time that any team won four games in a row in Seattle. But Seattle has a great defense. The insane state is Darnold had 150 passing yards, and Smith-Njigba had 124 of those. I assume Kupp will be more involved in the future. An Barner looks to me like he could really be good.
They didn't throw to any actual receivers besides Kupp and Smith-Njigba. Who is their third or fourth receiver?
On that final TD, the defender did not move into the receiver aggressively. He played behind him and allowed him to step in front. BIG mistake. Worst day by a CB I have seen in years.
First time in the history of the history of history.
Wow! Amazing stuff!
It is 14.4 inches of separation. Anything they can do to promote San Fran.
Where do you get that? The media hates the 49ers.
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