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Alarming jobs report makes potent case for the Fed to cut interest rates
Axios ^ | August 01, 2025 | Neil Irwin

Posted on 08/01/2025 11:57:55 AM PDT by Red Badger

At the Federal Reserve policy meeting that concluded Wednesday, governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented from the decision to leave rates unchanged, believing that a rate cut was justified. It looks like they had a point.

The intrigue: At 8am ET Friday morning — half an hour before the jobs report — Waller and Bowman issued statements explaining their dissents.

It's clear they were worried about exactly the kind of labor market cracks that exploded into plain view with the new revisions. What they're saying: Waller's statement says that "while the labor market looks fine on the surface, once we account for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth is near stall speed, and other data suggest that the downside risks to the labor market have increased."

"With underlying inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate," he continued. Bowman said that "the labor market has become less dynamic and shows increasing signs of fragility." What's next: The odds of a rate cut at the next Fed policy meeting in mid-September skyrocketed after the weak numbers, and bond yields fell.

The likelihood was 38% Thursday, per the CME FedWatch tool, but went up to 80% Friday. The two-year Treasury yield fell a whopping 0.19 percentage point. The bottom line: Waller and Bowman didn't win the argument at the Federal Open Market Committee table this week, but the latest data only bolsters their concerns and means they're likely to win the day when the Fed next meets.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; History; Society; Weird Stuff
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1 posted on 08/01/2025 11:57:55 AM PDT by Red Badger
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To: Red Badger
Snort.

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump was just informed that the jobs numbers are being produced by a LEFT-OVER BIDEN OFFICIAL

2 posted on 08/01/2025 11:59:17 AM PDT by mewzilla (Swing away, Mr. President, swing away!)
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To: Red Badger

Read This:

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4332106/posts


3 posted on 08/01/2025 12:00:07 PM PDT by Robe
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To: Red Badger

since tabulator has just been fired, who knows what the employment figures really are - but the extent of revisions had raised eyebrows.


4 posted on 08/01/2025 12:02:39 PM PDT by avital2
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To: Robe

Treachery is everywhere...................


5 posted on 08/01/2025 12:03:06 PM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: Red Badger
That asshole running the Fed is sabotaging the economy on purpose.

He’s a subversive who wouldn’t mind killing half the population just like Fauci wanted to do.

Those people are the enemy.

6 posted on 08/01/2025 12:04:55 PM PDT by HIDEK6 (God bless Donald Trump)
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To: All

Of far more importance is the reversal of inflation, confirmed by PCE yesterday aligning with the CPI.

And you can ignore the “as Trump’s tariffs take hold” stuff.

Inflation is headed up regardless of tariffs, and very soon the conversation will be about rate increases, not decreases.


7 posted on 08/01/2025 12:07:40 PM PDT by Owen
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To: Red Badger

Stalin would have gulaged most of them. Shot the rest.


8 posted on 08/01/2025 12:16:29 PM PDT by Justa (Our constitution was made only for a moral and religious people....)
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To: Owen

That ain’t happening


9 posted on 08/01/2025 12:43:16 PM PDT by Lod881019
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To: Lod881019

Trump fired her.


10 posted on 08/01/2025 12:57:07 PM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: Col Frank Slade

Just now he did when revisions are done being off by a little is completely understandable when you are off by a lot all the time yeh I’d say she deserved it


11 posted on 08/01/2025 1:27:57 PM PDT by Lod881019
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