Posted on 08/01/2025 11:57:55 AM PDT by Red Badger
At the Federal Reserve policy meeting that concluded Wednesday, governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented from the decision to leave rates unchanged, believing that a rate cut was justified. It looks like they had a point.
The intrigue: At 8am ET Friday morning — half an hour before the jobs report — Waller and Bowman issued statements explaining their dissents.
It's clear they were worried about exactly the kind of labor market cracks that exploded into plain view with the new revisions. What they're saying: Waller's statement says that "while the labor market looks fine on the surface, once we account for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth is near stall speed, and other data suggest that the downside risks to the labor market have increased."
"With underlying inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate," he continued. Bowman said that "the labor market has become less dynamic and shows increasing signs of fragility." What's next: The odds of a rate cut at the next Fed policy meeting in mid-September skyrocketed after the weak numbers, and bond yields fell.
The likelihood was 38% Thursday, per the CME FedWatch tool, but went up to 80% Friday. The two-year Treasury yield fell a whopping 0.19 percentage point. The bottom line: Waller and Bowman didn't win the argument at the Federal Open Market Committee table this week, but the latest data only bolsters their concerns and means they're likely to win the day when the Fed next meets.
since tabulator has just been fired, who knows what the employment figures really are - but the extent of revisions had raised eyebrows.
Treachery is everywhere...................
He’s a subversive who wouldn’t mind killing half the population just like Fauci wanted to do.
Those people are the enemy.
Of far more importance is the reversal of inflation, confirmed by PCE yesterday aligning with the CPI.
And you can ignore the “as Trump’s tariffs take hold” stuff.
Inflation is headed up regardless of tariffs, and very soon the conversation will be about rate increases, not decreases.
Stalin would have gulaged most of them. Shot the rest.
That ain’t happening
Trump fired her.
Just now he did when revisions are done being off by a little is completely understandable when you are off by a lot all the time yeh I’d say she deserved it
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