China Just Canceled U.S. Pork in a 172% Tariff Shock -- Here's Who Wins Next

Gurufocus ^ | 4/24/2025 | Khac Phu Nguyen

[Miami Rebel]

China just scrapped 12,000 metric tons of pork orders from the US — the largest cancellation since 2020. That single move dragged US pork export sales to their lowest level in over six months. Lean hog futures immediately took a hit in Chicago, sliding as much as 1.6% before recovering slightly. Behind the scenes, it's not just about pork — it's about tariffs, trade power plays, and a shifting global protein map that could catch some investors off guard.

The sharp pullback from China isn't random. It's a direct response to longstanding US tariffs — some dating back to Trump-era trade wars — that now stack up to a brutal 172% on American pork. That pricing wall essentially shuts the US out of the world's biggest pork import market. And China's not hesitating to fill the gap. Brazil and other exporters are quickly moving in to take share, capitalizing on friendlier trade terms and rising demand in Asia.

This could have bigger ripple effects than the market's currently pricing in. US-based meat exporters face structural headwinds in China, while foreign players gain a long-term advantage. For investors, that means revisiting exposure to protein-linked commodities and exporters — and watching closely as the US-China trade chessboard adds another piece.

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TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: china; miamirebelpussy; pork; somuchwinning; tariffs

[Miami Rebel]

Ironically, this will impact China's profits from Smithfield.

[vespa300]

They love their Pork Fried Rice and I don’t think Pork Fried Soy is gonna work for them. Let’s wait and see.

[mac_truck]

Pork products just got cheaper for consumers in the in the United States too.

Barbecue pork rib or cheap plastic toys, that's a tough one. 🤔

[johniegrad]

I know very little about international agricultural trade. It seems this will hurt pork producers here in the United States. Does the government already subsidize producers and, if so, will that subsidy increase? If we don’t subsidize them, will we start?

It would seem that pork prices for the consumer would fall unless other markets make up the difference.

Im beginning to dislike the Chinese more and more every day.

[Miami Rebel]

Ask a hog farmer.

[Miami Rebel]

It’ll have a big impact on corn and soybeans too.

None of this is a big surprise. Farmers are always on the frontline in tariff wars.

[odawg]

China grows 55% of the world’s hogs.

[mewzilla]

And God knows what it feeds them.

[9422WMR]

Pig soooooooey SUK!
Here piggy piggy.
Smithfield can burn. They are a monopoly of meat production in the US.
Tysons and the firm from South America also own huge portions of US meat processing and hire illegals.
Old Bo Pilgrim wouldn’t sell a fat yellow chicken, but his company was sold to a foreign firm.

[9YearLurker]

We should never have given China a chokehold on our pork production—and there’s no more reason for us to be shipping pork halfway around the world than there is beef or chicken.

[Mlheureux]

Good! Bigger supply in US and lower prices.

[TonyM]

“ Good! Bigger supply in US and lower prices.”

BINGO! The price of pork chops has been ridiculous anyway.

[Lazamataz]

China grows 55% of the world’s hogs.

The front 55%, or the back 55%?

[reed13k]

Excellent more bacon for us at lower prices!

[bantam]

Let China grow all those animals in their overgrown cities! That might just work!?

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

Fascinating source. A website run out of a rented office in Plano, Texas.

It's disclaimer reads in part, "GuruFocus.com is not operated by a broker or a dealer. Under no circumstances does any information posted on GuruFocus.com represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations."

The author of the article? GuruFocus says "a passionate value investing practitioner, investing in special and deeply mispriced situations." So no real information about education and work experience and the like.

MuckRack finds he is a journalist whose written articles appearing in "Yahoo Canada, Yahoo News New Zealand, Yahoo Singapore, Yahoo Finance, Yahoo Finance Australia, Yahoo Finance Canada, Yahoo Finance Singapore, Yahoo! Finance New Zealand, Flipboard, Yahoo, GuruFocus, Yahoo Finanzas, Reader Supported News, Creditandcollectionnews,"

Media. Journalists. As to pork futures and the like, in the flux of this time and changing relationships, volatility is to be expected. Places your bets.....

[mewzilla]

And speaking of meat, a request for the President...

We need to bring back country of origin labeling (COOL) for beef and pork, Mr. President.

We need to know where are beef and pork are coming from.

[liberalh8ter]

America has a feral hog problem. Time to round up those little piggies and ship them to a feed lot.

[Worldtraveler once upon a time]

--- "Bigger supply in US and lower prices."

The essence of competition in capitalism, which is not an economic system per se, but simple freedom exercised. Bigger supply generally equals lower prices.

We buy much from local farms and local farmers, sometimes through middlemen and sometimes direct. Pork prices vary by retailer, so shop for prices. It annoys the wannabe socialists and the wannabe monopolists.

[Kleon]

That pork will be turned into quality McRibs.