Posted on 04/21/2025 8:50:10 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
Key Events: US Dollar Index (DXY) drops to 98 amid reports Trump plans to restructure the Fed EURUSD surges above 1.15, Gold nears 3,400, and GBPUSD approaches 1.34 China threatens with retaliatory tariffs to nations aligning with US trade policy IMF Spring Meetings kick off amid heightened trade negotiations and global economic uncertainty Markets stumbled in early Monday trading following news that Trump may attempt to overhaul the Federal Reserve. Although it is illegal for a sitting president to fire the Fed Chair, the attacks have raised concerns about the independence and stability of US monetary policy, driving the Dollar Index (DXY) lower toward the 98-support, while global markets reacted sharply:
EURUSD climbs beyond 1.15 Gold rallies toward 3,400 GBPUSD challenges 1.34 USDJPY slides into the 140 zone US indices fall by 1%
The DXY is losing momentum, sinking below the 98 threshold and eyeing further support at 97.70, 96, and 92.30—levels aligning with the lower bound of a channel originating from the 2008 lows. A reversal above 99 or 101 could reignite bullish sentiment amid ongoing volatility.
While GBPUSD and USDJPY test levels last seen in September 2024, EURUSD and DXY hover around 3-year extremes, near critical technical levels that may define the next major trend. The Dollar’s weakness is further exacerbated by deepening US–China trade tensions, which continue to erode global market confidence. Recent actions from China include:
Cutting US commodity imports—including liquefied natural gas and wheat—to near zero as per March reports Issuing warnings to other nations against aligning with US trade policy, under threat of retaliatory tariffs In addition, unresolved geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe (Russia–Ukraine) are sustaining upward pressure on gold prices, which are now approaching $3,400 per ounce.
On a monthly chart, gold’s overbought momentum echoes historic crisis periods such as 2020 and 2008. Despite this, the metal remains supported by its safe-haven appeal, especially as macro risks persist. Meanwhile, DXY's weekly momentum reflects oversold territory akin to 2020 levels, though further downside is visible on its monthly time frame.
EURUSD is trading near its November 2021 highs, reaching 1.1567 today. While weekly momentum shows overbought conditions similar to 2020, monthly indicators suggest further upside potential—possibly short-lived—toward 1.1620, 1.1750, 1.2050, and 1.2360.
Should market confidence recover and momentum reverse, key support zones to watch include 1.1280, 1.1140, 1.1000, and 1.0920. These levels could either recharge bullish momentum into 2025 or signal a deeper pullback toward 1.08 and below.
Gold is rallying on a combination of safe haven flows and Dollar weakness, approaching the $3,420 resistance. While momentum is elevated—resembling crisis-era extremes—further gains are possible amid continued uncertainty. f $3,420-$3450 zone holds, aligning with key Fibonacci extensions (drawn from the 2018 lows, 2020 highs, and 2022 lows), and trendline connecting 2016 and 2020 peaks, gold could follow through on its cup and handle breakout pattern toward $3,700 and $4,000.
However, any geopolitical resolution or easing of trade tensions could trigger a sharp reversal, with potential downside levels at $3,000, $2,960, $2,900, and $2,800.
It’s amazing how no matter how high Gold goes, people are spending money advertising their desire to sell it every day. Why don’t they just keep it?
The euro trending higher against the dollar will help our exports and limit our imports. This is a good thing.
Fundamental rule of all financial news.
There will be a report of S&P level or dollar level. Then there will be the word “as” and an explanation.
Ignore everything after the word “as”. Always.
“Our analysts are predicting a huge jump in gold. So please buy our gold.”
Either their analysts are wrong, or their gold is ridiculously overpriced.
A crashing dollar helps exports but boosts inflation.
EVERY administration talks up the dollar but often quietly undermines it for political advantage.
Gold has signaled financial crises for centuries. The fact it now takes 3,400 US dollars screams of crisis ahead. ALL the world’s paper currencies are crashing, not just the USD.
goldprice.org
Probably because they are a BUSINESS.
.
The Fed needs to be reined in and placed under the elected government because it effectively controls the value of the currency through interest rates, despite that power being given explicitly to Congress by the Constitution.
If that means the dollar falls, then imports become more expensive and foreign investment in the US becomes cheaper.
“Wall Street is trying...”
You lost me right there.
Wall Street is overwhelmingly Republican. It likes low taxes and low regulation.
But even more to the point, Wall Street doesn’t “try” to do a single thing but make money. It doesn’t risk capital for Quixotic political purposes.
Retail gold profit margins are enormous.
With gold soaring, popular interest in it is elevated. With interest high, it is easier to motive buying and selling to the masses.
The advertisers make obscene commissions either way: they do not invest for their own accounts.
Makes me wonder what happened with the inventory of Ft Knox?
Seriously??
I ask the same thing. If inflation is ruining the $ and these people have the GOLD why are they selling their gold for soon to be worthless $?
I have hear it is just gold certificates and not physical gold. Have to watch real gold now. Some of it is gold plated tungsten.
“Just my luck. We haven’t traveled to Europe since pre-COVID and with two trips planned this year, the Euro is flying versus the dollar.”
We are going next month. Hotels and tours already booked.
“They know paper money and the fraudulent derivatives are in danger and that is why they now classify gold as the top tier #1 asset.”
USDs are also tier 1.
Wall Street's money making assumptions and how they currently make a profit are deeply tied to neo-liberal globalism. Challenge the status quo and many decisions will be made that cause the stock market to tank, bond rates to rise, etc. We are told this is because Trump has introduced "uncertainty." Yes, he has introduced uncertainty that the current system of debt-fueled trade deficits from which Wall Street has profited handsomely will be allowed to continue.
In particular, Powell's refusal to address bond rates when interest on the debt is approaching crisis levels shows that the Fed is not a neutral observer: it had no qualms about intervening massively when it thought the stability of the banks and Wall Street were affected. But now that Trump is doing something Wall Street doesn't like, he won't lift a finger and we are told Trump will be punished by the "bond vigilantes," or even worse, Powell will sit by and allow bond rates to rise because other countries are acting against the US and dumping bonds.
The Fed and the markets are supposed to serve the overall interests of the US not act parasitically: if they do not, tear them down and create something that does.
“Wall Street is overwhelmingly Republican”
No. Colleges have successfully brainwashed them.
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