Posted on 04/13/2025 11:28:54 AM PDT by Miami Rebel
The technology sector, or at least a key part of it, breathed easier on Saturday after President Trump said that various industries, including semiconductors, computer hardware, and smartphones, would be exempt from the steep reciprocal tariffs put in place this month.
The reprieve, however, may only be temporary, according to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
Lutnick, a key proponent of tariffs to re-spark U.S. manufacturing, provided more insight into technology sector import taxes on Sunday. His message renews uncertainty for major U.S. technology companies, including Apple, Dell, and Nvidia, which depend heavily on overseas production to keep costs low.
After OpenAI's ChatGPT became the fastest app to reach one million users in 2022, big tech poured billions of dollars into training and operating its own large-language AI models, or AI chatbots, and agentic AI programs designed to complement and, in some cases, replace workers.
The research has been widespread, and AI is already making an impact.
AI's rapid adoption has meant a significant refresh cycle across all technology infrastructures.
Central processing units deployed in enterprise and cloud networks, like those run by Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, are being replaced by graphic processing units (GPUs) made by Nvidia, better suited to handling the massive compute power necessary for AI development. Similarly, servers and computers are getting upgraded, boosting revenue for players like Dell and Super Micro.
In 2025, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Google parent Alphabet, and Amazon plan to spend about $325 billion on the stuff necessary to run and grow their businesses, much of it on AI.
Those plans, however, could get rethought following tariffs that could increase expenses and slow the economy.
Reports are already circulating that Microsoft is slowing its data center plans. That trend may accelerate if higher prices caused by tariffs weaken the economy, leading to canceled orders.
The situation isn't limited to the impact on these businesses' AI plans, though. Tariffs risk increasing costs on laptops, smartphones, and flat-panel TVs, potentially causing everyday consumers to rethink upgrading existing electronics.
A potential slowing has led to a widespread sell-off in technology stocks. Particularly hard hit have been Nvidia and Apple, which are down 9% and 7%, respectively, this month alone. Overall, Roundhill's Magnificient Seven ETF MAGS is down 18% this year, including a 3.5% tumble this month.
On Saturday, some technology investors' worry was removed when the administration provided guidance that popular electronics, including laptops, computers, semiconductors, TVs, and solar cells, are exempt from the reciprocal tariffs announced on Liberation Day, April 2.
The technology exemption includes imports valued at nearly $390 billion, including over $100 billion from China. An escalating trade war means the current tariffs on China's imports total 145%.
The exemption doesn't include a 20% China tariff announced before April 2. And it may not be long-lasting, given comments made on April 13 by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
Lutnick said on an ABC News interview that technology tariffs will be considered independently from reciprocal tariffs, and specific "sector" tariffs will soon be placed upon them.
"Sector tariffs will not be part of the negotiations," said Lutnick. "Virtually all semiconductors are made now in Taiwan and they're finished in China. It's important that we reshore them. And so the President is going to come out with his policies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. They're going to be outside the reciprocal tariffs."
Therefore, the sector will be treated similarly to autos, which are subject to a 25% tariff, and pharmaceuticals, which the White House says it will also target separately with tariffs.
Nevertheless, this weekend's mixed messages on technology tariffs are problematic for businesses that rely on policy certainty to make long-range plans.
Excluding these tech products from reciprocal tariffs "took doomsday scenario off the table," according to influential tech analyst Dan Ives on "X." "But still there is mass uncertainty, chaos, and confusion about the next steps."
“The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight.”
Like new Marines in North Carolina, they’ll learn.
Like previously stated, it's all going to come down to this question - do voters believe they are better off when they vote in 2025 and 2026 vs. when they voted in 2024?
That's it. It truly is the economy.
“You can’t always get what you want
But if you try sometime
You’ll find
You get what you need”
https://genius.com/The-rolling-stones-you-cant-always-get-what-you-want-lyrics
Y’all commentors have it all wrong!
US industries outsourced because EPA and state regulations
made with no regard whatsoever to cost/benefit trade off studies, caused our stuff be to expensive too produce here at home.
We have plenty of rare earths in the USA but Government won’t allow people to mine them.
We have plenty of energy in the ground, Coal, Oil, Natural gas Just try to get a permit to extract it.
Our problem is political, not practical limitations.
It is the Federal government Primarily run by career Democrats, both elected and non-elected.
Our competitors know this.
“first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory.”
FDR
Americans of working age generally need a job as well as a shopping cart.
That was only one angle of it. The cheap labor and various policies and regulations supporting Chinese outsourcing, especially, were probably more critical.
Trump has to quit letting different admin officials speak differently about ANY tariffs. He should designate the one and only one person to speak about tariffs publicly, and that person should be required to consult with speficic other administration people before they speaks, and all others need to defer press questions about tariffs to that one person.
The uncertainty is what is roiling the markets - as investors try to determine future effects of tariffs on companies, or not, if resolved, and causing companies to delay decisions because of supply chain uncertainties.
“Why didn’t 47 say that these exception were temporary to begin with? Everyone was cheering, now we could be headed to recession territory simply because the clown show can’t get its messaging straight.”
Abba Eban:
“Men and nations do act wisely when they have exhausted all the other possibilities.”
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/11/11/exhaust-alternatives/
“50 years ago this weekend the Government announced that the pound would be devalued by 14%. This decision – previously politically unthinkable – was taken after fending off a number of earlier currency crises.”
“Chancellor James Callaghan released a statement at 9.30pm on Saturday 18 November 1967 stating that the Government had decided to lower the exchange rate from $2.80 to $2.40 per £1, a 14.3% change. Interest rates were raised from 6.5% to 8.0%, cuts to defence budget announced, and banks and the stock exchanges would be closed on Monday.”
“Prime Minister Harold Wilson gave an address on TV and radio to the nation....He railed at the “successive waves of speculation against sterling”, and said no international loan could be agreed given the conditions on economic policy that may be attached to them.”
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/pound-in-your-pocket-devaluation-50-years-on/
Remember a 14% devaluation has a greater impact than a tariff increase to 10%.
Watch Season 3 of “The Crown” to see why trade deficits matter.
Last I heard they are pulling back from Vietnam towards India. Mostly ipads and watches. Phones were never manufactured in Vietnam.
The Soviet industrial base in 1940 was not very sophisticated.
“The Soviet industrial base in 1940 was not very sophisticated.”
Let’s walk around a Walmart.
flower pots - Made in China
hand tools - Made in China
auto parts - Made in China
sports stuff - Made in China
bicycles - Made in China
electronics - Made in China
crafts - Made in China
clothes - Made in China
Apple can build in vietnam, then they can build here.
—
Vietnam is heavily tariffed as is India. Jumping from the frying pan into the fire is not a solution.
“You’re kidding, right?” No
“There are posters that believe Apple can move manufacturing in months.” They are idiots with no understanding of supply chains.
What you wrote at the end of your post and what I wrote are not in disagreement.
Your prison is self made.
We are liberated.
You never will be at this rate. If you even want to be. And you should want to.
The entire administration, Trump included, shouldn’t be saying anything on tariffs other than we are negotiating deals with other countries. Between Lutnick and Navarro, those two are single handedly creating chaos with their statements.
“Virtually all semiconductors are made now in Taiwan and they’re finished in China.”
It seems we are talking about two distinct topics: A) made in Taiwan, B) finished in China. I don’t know what they mean by finished. I expect they could be finished somewhere else than China.
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