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Trump’s Tariffs Will Not Cause Inflation
American Thinker ^ | 4 Apr, 2025 | Spencer P. Morrison

Posted on 04/04/2025 4:30:55 AM PDT by MtnClimber

Tariffs will not cause inflation in the long term. In fact, they will likely lower the cost of goods over time.

On April 2, Liberation Day, President Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs across the board. The President noted that they were “kind” tariffs, since they were only half the rate that American producers are charged. For now, at least.

Critics have lamented that tariffs will raise the cost of goods, as if the Constitution codified the right to buy “cheap” Chinese goods.

While there will be an adjustment period -- as with any major policy shift -- tariffs will not cause inflation in the long term. In fact, they will likely lower the cost of goods over time.

Asleep at the Wheel

Over the last fifty years, the American people have been subjected to an experiment with economic globalism. This has hollowed out American industries, destroyed millions of jobs, and endangered America’s national security. The one benefit that the public as promised was that goods would be cheap -- that the cost of living would go down.

This was a false promise. Compare recent history: President Trump’s tariffs did not raise the cost of goods during his first term. Meanwhile, inflation was rampant during President Biden’s term, despite his walking back most of President Trump’s trade agenda. Further, America had the highest average tariff rates in the world during the nineteenth century, during which time America’s industry flourished and the cost of living decreased year after year.

In addition to the evidence, economic logic reaches the same conclusion. Tariffs are taxes on imports. Accordingly, they can be entirely avoided by buying American. This creates a strong incentive for foreign producers to lower their costs. That is, if countries like China or Mexico want access to America’s

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Society
KEYWORDS: blessyourheart; doomerboomers; smoothawley; trump; trumptariffs
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To: MtnClimber

21 posted on 04/04/2025 5:37:59 AM PDT by Jane Long (Jesus is Lord!)
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To: MtnClimber

Tariffs won’t cause inflation because inflation is caused by the government printing money too much in an attempt to generate consumer demand. But Tariffs will reduce our living standards.


22 posted on 04/04/2025 6:12:38 AM PDT by Socon-Econ (adi)
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To: Jane Long

Bingo another way how Inflation works


23 posted on 04/04/2025 6:14:39 AM PDT by Vaduz
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To: Fury
The 2026 election will turn on “it’s the economy, stupid”.

If people who vote in the election don’t consider them better off economically, the party in power will lose. It’s played out over and over again.

This is my concern as well. If he is going this route, then we need to get the tax cuts made permanent or at least extended before 2026.

Additionally, if SC justices Thomas and Alito (both of whom are solid) are considering retirement, they need to do so while Trump has a Republican majority in the Senate so he can replace them with some young, constitutional-adherent justices in the same vein as Thomas and Alito.

24 posted on 04/04/2025 6:45:41 AM PDT by American Infidel (Instead of vilifying success, try to emulate it)
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To: ClearCase_guy
Milton Friedman was not a fool, and his statements about money supply are generally correct. But he clearly either didn't understand or (more likely) left out an important element of money supply as it relates to inflation. And he apparently led you to draw a totally incorrect conclusion of the relationship between money supply and inflation.

"Inflation" is a shortened term. The full term is "Inflation of the money supply".

This is flat-out wrong. When the government reported inflation figures for February 2025 and posted a 2.8% inflation rate over a 12-month period, it was absolutely not reporting the change in the money supply. It was reporting a broad average of price increases across a range of products and services. And those price increases are caused by several different factors. The example I cited of excessive regulation is a classic example of "cost-push" inflation -- where rising costs for producers result in higher prices for the products and services they sell.

To get back to Friedman ... Using money supply as the sole cause of inflation is overly simplistic. Recent history shows us why this is the case. In the early days of COVID in 2020, for example, we saw massive declines in the prices of many things even as the U.S. government was flooding the nation with more than a trillion dollars in "stimulus payments." You could have rented a car for a fraction of its pre-COVID cost. And the price of motor fuels had dropped so dramatically that we saw President Trump making a deal with Saudi Arabia and Russia to slash oil production in a desperate attempt to prop up the price of crude oil. That was in response to an alarming drop in the price of oil that saw West Texas Intermediate drop below $23/barrel and threatened to decimate the U.S. energy sector.

What these examples show us is that money velocity is just as important as money supply in its impact on prices. If the government handed every U.S. citizen $25,000 in cash and we all hid the money in our closets, there would be NO inflationary impact. But if the government handed everyone a $25,000 debit card with the stipulation that we had to use it within 48 hours or lose it, you can be sure this would drive up prices for many things as people ran around desperately finding anything to buy.

25 posted on 04/04/2025 6:59:43 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("The gallows wait for martyrs whose papers are in order.")
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To: Fury

That is correct, IMO. Particularly, people on modest fixed incomes (or nearly so) are not going to wait 5 years to see how things play out. Others already hurtin’, like farmers, are nervous too.


26 posted on 04/04/2025 8:37:37 AM PDT by Paul R. (Old Viking saying: "Never be more than 3 steps away from your weapon ... or a Uriah Heep song!" ;-))
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To: Theoria

denial is not a strategy. your characterization of trump as a lame duck is not true.
misrepresentation is not an effective strategy against MAGA either.
China is under GREAT pressure... and they will attack to try and seize Taiwan. It will be a very big mistake.

One cannot SQUEEZE Trump to the table, since he is the one who is dragging them there in the first place via the now verified threat of higher tariffs.... and that is to deal their with unfair and unbalanced tariffs and trade barriers.

The common Chinese populace... has the power to collapse the CCP from within, and they are the vast majority.


27 posted on 04/04/2025 9:05:36 AM PDT by MIA_eccl1212 (10-10-10-10)
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To: MIA_eccl1212
'denial is not a strategy. your characterization of trump as a lame duck is not true.'

You fail to grasp that other countries are not bothered by our political timelines. China can lock down their country for years without political blowback, the idea that they are gonna run to mommy because of Trump's threats, not gonna happen. All this tariff talk only fuels their nationalist and actions, their gov loves it.

28 posted on 04/04/2025 9:21:44 AM PDT by Theoria
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To: 11th_VA

This isn’t a black swan at all. Trump said what he was going to do weeks ago. He even gave a date.

Honestly, I think a lot of “systems” were simply looking for an excuse to bail out of the markets.

If you were a financial market trader, you “should” have been buying puts for the past week and riding this market down. This was as obvious as the COVID sell off around the same time in 2020. If you were paying attention, it was obvious what was going to happen.

That said, in the next few weeks there will be lots of negotiations which will result in favorable results. A good example is Vietnam.

Finally, I graduated from college in May of ‘82. This was at the depth of the Reagan recession as a result of his tax policies. By the end of ‘82 things started turning and by ‘84 things were humming.

Think we are in a similar situation. The tech companies will continue to perform well. But you will see some improvement in manufacturing, which has taken a hit over the past ten years or so.

Markets like to “react.” These days it seems everything is “magnified” as a result of social media.

I am willing to give this six months to a year and then we can see where we are.


29 posted on 04/04/2025 9:30:40 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: 11th_VA
So you think the engineered market crash is a black swan event? The tariff went into affect 24 hours ago, maybe the Treasury took in a $1 Billion so far. The fake market reaction it has drop $trillions in response? This does not compute.
30 posted on 04/04/2025 9:34:26 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: Alberta's Child

I agree. The money supply spike preceded the inflation mess by several months. It takes time for that money to make it through the “bidding” process to where it lands in the pockets of the consumer. COVID provided the supply shock element.

This will pass. It’s been 24 hours. The pundits need to take a breath and see what happens.

It’s either going to be a masterclass that will be repeated in the future. Or it will be an unmitigated disaster that will lead to the end of all humanity. Either way…I can’t influence it one way or the other. Ha Ha.


31 posted on 04/04/2025 9:35:26 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: CodeToad
The increases tariff being put in place by our trading enemies will decrease exports and increase domestic supply = lower prices for those goods.
32 posted on 04/04/2025 9:36:44 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: babble-on
The negotiations will take the form of bribes paid directly to Trump.

The man is a hero. Bribes? Hardly.

33 posted on 04/04/2025 9:38:20 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: aquila48
Which will cause prices of those American goods to go up with the higher demand.

Which begets more supply. Lather,rinse. Repeat.

34 posted on 04/04/2025 9:40:14 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: Dan in Wichita
Th economy is fine. The current engineered stock market crash is the Soros et al globalist money flexing their muscle. This will not last.
35 posted on 04/04/2025 9:41:49 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: ClearCase_guy
Excessive government regulations are a problem. They drive up costs and that results in price increases. But it's not inflation.

You are right but not stating it correctly. Inflation is caused simply by "to many dollars chasing too few goods". So what you meant to say was the regulations are hurting production and artificially decreasing the supply. This is what is causing the inflation in this case.

36 posted on 04/04/2025 9:45:09 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: Paul R.
Others already hurtin’, like farmers, are nervous too.

Farmers LOVE import tariffs.

37 posted on 04/04/2025 9:47:04 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: MIA_eccl1212
and they will attack to try and seize Taiwan.

If that were to happen I worry that our American Free Traitors™ will have hard time getting back to their motherland - mainland China. They may have to stop posting here and go underground.

38 posted on 04/04/2025 9:49:51 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: central_va

Yep. Still winning. American companies that screwed the US economy by going overseas need to pay similar taxes, and they were supposed to, but Clinton saw to it they didn’t.


39 posted on 04/04/2025 9:50:09 AM PDT by CodeToad ( )
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To: Vermont Lt

How did we end up on the same team? This is creepy.


40 posted on 04/04/2025 9:51:18 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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