Posted on 03/26/2025 6:39:41 AM PDT by delta7
American businesses are losing confidence in the US economy under Trump due to the tariff wars. CNBC’s CFO Council quarterly survey for Q1 2025 learned that America’s top CFOs are increasingly pessimistic about the economy due to these “disruptive” and “aggressive” tariff policies.
Around 60% of respondents believe the US will fall into a recession by the second half of this year, with 15% believing the recession will come in 2026. When this survey was conducted last quarter, prior to the tariff wars and trade volatility, only 7% of CFOs believed the nation was heading into a recession. This figure is a glimpse at how heavily trade uncertainty is destroying confidence.
How do corporations plan ahead when trade restrictions are subject to change at a moment’s notice? It’s simply not possible, and what happens is corporations will err on the side of caution and prematurely raise prices regardless of whether the tariffs go into effect. Unsurprisingly, nearly all (95%) of respondents said ever-changing trade policies are impacting their ability to make business decisions. Will tariffs be implemented? When? At what rate? The uncertainty is causing complete chaos in boardrooms across America.
Another 30% cited inflation as the biggest business risk but that is currently directly tied to this tariff ordeal, as is the valid concern of consumer demand (20%) as the people are also losing confidence in the economy and therefore are less likely to spend. Everything is connected. Inflation rises and demand drops as the people are unwilling and/or unable to spend.
Then 90% believe tariffs will create “resurgent inflation,” and half do not believe the Fed will be able to meet the 2% inflation target until the second half of 2026, if not 2027. I explained in an earlier blog post how the Fed cannot control tariff inflation through rates as rates do not offset higher prices set by trade barriers.
I have repeatedly warned that this tariff fiasco could be the nail in the coffin for Trump’s legacy. Those advising Trump are idiots who do not understand how the world economy functions. America will not be “liberated” on April 2 when many of these tariffs are set to go into effect. America cannot have a boom when the rest of the world is contracting. The world economy and peace survive on free trade.
“Gold and the DOW will rise together…rarely seen.”
I know! I’ve been at this 20 years so far and I’ve never seen PMs and the Dow travel UP together. I’m always harping on ‘diversity’ in your investing, but this is one for the books, for sure!
IATG
Weak sauce from the Gaytor today...
Weak, very weak rehash, blah, blah blah. His Socrates forecasted the Ukie war, Trumps reelection, Gold moving up with the DOW….maybe you should subscribe to his entry level Socrates ECM…. don’t worry, your Bitcoiners forum will never find out.
Total BS
Only the idiots
I’d be skeptical of these big pledges. They are loooonnnggg term, and subject to being withdrawn. Foxcom was an extreme example of that.
On the plus side, it means that at least SOME of that will get invested here.
I absolutely agree with you regarding the general shortsightedness and stupidity of the average American. I am just old enough to remember multiple recessions. Some were longer than others. The perms bull market stuff is smoke and mirrors. I know people who swear Clinton & Biden were good presidents solely because the Dow was up under them. Never critical of why. Never caring about the damage done to the country or future generations to achieve that. They have no clue how close we are to losing it all and selfishly could not handle a dose of reality / pain in order to actually improve things.
“His Socrates forecasted “
Socrates generates 1000 reports a day. That is 365,000 a year.
Odds say one are two might be right.
BTW, how do you have time to read those reports and still blog, post, appear in movies and podcasts, host seminars and write books and $900 reports?
Will the US civil war that you predicted effect the recession?
https://youtu.be/uMAK8XNt_Zk?feature=shared
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