Posted on 03/03/2025 11:13:39 AM PST by Miami Rebel
Food prices have been on an increasingly upward trend for the past several years thanks to COVID-19 and inflation. And while U.S. tariffs against Canada and Mexico were on hold, President Donald Trump has now announced that they will go into effect on March 4, "as scheduled." The president made this announcement in a post on the social media platform Truth Social.
Those 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico were on hold after the two countries reached an agreement with the United States, but now that they're back on, your grocery budget is likely to be affected—after all, those countries are the top two suppliers of food and beverages to the United States. With more food price hikes possibly on the horizon, here’s what to know—and what to consider stocking up on.
How Will Tariffs Work?
Under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, fresh vegetables traded within the North American market move widely tariff-free—a mutually beneficial system that saw a rise in the import volume of foods such as bell peppers, cucumbers, squash and snap beans.2 When tariffs do go into effect, shoppers can expect to see prices change fairly quickly.
In the aftermath of tariffs becoming official, there may also be some supply chain disruptions. Though demand for groceries will stay the same, supply may decrease, since importers of record are responsible for paying the newly imposed fees.
This scenario is more likely to occur among smaller importers, while larger corporations will almost certainly pay the fees. Smaller importers will have to pay the fees on any goods they do decide to bring in, but they may scale back their imports to avoid the added cost. Don’t expect companies large or small to absorb the losses—at least not fully—instead, they’ll increase the prices of goods, which means consumers will ultimately pay the price at checkout.
What Foods Will Go Up in Price?
In the weeks after tariffs against Canada go into effect, shoppers can expect to see a rise in prices of foods with high U.S. import volumes, including beef and seafood, cereals, legumes and maple products.
As for the effect of tariffs on Mexico, Americans will most certainly see increases in the price of a long list of fruits and vegetables, including avocados, tomatoes, peppers, berries, cucumbers and greens, as well as for sugar, orange juice products and some cuts of meat.
Should I Start Stocking Up?
Though some folks may already be headed to stores to stock up, it’s important to reflect on COVID-era experiences before stockpiling foods that may ultimately go to waste—like those 50-pound bags of flour. Tariffs or not, buying foods that you regularly consume in bulk is a smart cost-saving plan when done correctly.
What Foods to Buy and How to Store Them
Meat and Seafood
More than half of the fresh red meat imported to the U.S. comes from Canada, according to the Department of Agriculture. Canada is also a significant supplier of poultry and prepared meats, which includes processed meats like smoked sausage and cured ham. Plus, Canada is the largest exporter of seafood to the U.S., particularly when it comes to shellfish.
If you choose to stock up on your favorite cuts, store meat and seafood products in airtight food-storage bags in the back of the freezer for three to six months. You may be able to store even longer if you pick up some vacuum-sealed products—and certain cuts of meat last longer in the freezer than others. This guide to freezing chicken can help you out, and we wouldn’t recommend freezing whole cuts of beef for more than 12 months. And by the way, the USDA says you can safely freeze ground beef indefinitely, if you like—just know the quality may diminish after the six-month mark.
Nuts
Vietnam is actually the largest exporter of nuts to the U.S., but with Mexico at No. 2, price hikes aren’t out of the question. Plus, Mexico is actually the top exporter of ground nuts to the U.S., which could be tough news for fans of some gluten-free flour replacements. You can store nuts in unopened product bags or in airtight freezer bags in the freezer for up to a year.
Canned Legumes
As of 2022, the U.S. ranked No. 1 as an importer of legumes, and Guatemala, Mexico, Peru and Canada are the country’s largest suppliers, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.
Keep canned legumes, like beans and lentils, in a cool, dry place such as the pantry for up to two to five years. Note that although canned foods typically last even longer, taste and texture can be affected after a few years.
Fruits and Vegetables
Though Canada takes the top spot in the meat department, Mexico has long been a major supplier of fruit imported to the U.S. The country is far and away the largest exporter of fruit to the States, and in 2023, Americans imported more than $11 billion of fruit from Mexico. Peru, the second largest exporter, clocked in at just $2 billion.
And both Canada and Mexico play a large role in the veggie selection in the United States. With a combined $14 billion in vegetables exported in 2023, they are the top two exporters of vegetables to the U.S.—and that includes some frozen or preserved veggies.
Frozen fruits and vegetables are the best bet for buying in bulk, as they are flash-frozen to maximize freshness and preserve nutrients. Store them in the original packaging and reseal them after each use or transfer them into freezer food-storage bags with clearly marked expiration dates. Though we have guides on how to freeze some produce—like corn, celery and potatoes—keep in mind that some produce does not store well in the freezer, including most vegetables that you would use for salads.
Meant to say good stuff neat. Not Wild Turkey neat.
Get a Homer bucket and some seeds.
Learn to can.
Home grown tastes better.
I can afford to buy domestic. My monthly expenditures are under 10% of my income. Mine isn’t the profile of the average American consumer.
Probably the greatest factor (out of many) that produced the 2024 landslide was inflation. If you think that a new wave of trade-based inflation can be sold as patriotism, good luck to you.
I love my homegrown tomatoes, kale, parsley, dill, and arugula.
YOU and the majority of Americans are just plain fickle...
Fickle about what?
I am fortunate that if prices were to increase 10%, 20%, or 50%, there’d be little impact to my household.
Most Americans do not have that financial flexibility. That doesn’t make them fickle.
Explain how a 25% import tariff can raise prices by over 25%? Just how many goods do I buy from Canada? Probably none.
Nice thought, but the US is a net importer of food, thanks to regulations, environmental wacks and their lawyers, also California’s water policies which let water run back to the ocean rather than to farmers.
As for nuts there are nuts in every state, but not many or none in commercial quantities.
Eating just got more expensive for everyone while hardships loom for older folks on SS and food stamps.
We who have to endure this pointless policy thank the wealthy author.
Reading is fundamental: “ More than half of the fresh red meat imported”.
Its not half the fresh red meat eaten, its more than half of the red meat IMPORTED!
I wouldn’t eat cannuck steaks if I have a choice, and by gosh, my freezer full of home grown beef says I do!!
Beans and rice?
I doubt we import half the beef we eat. I looked at the comment as trying to imply that more than half the beef we eat is imported from Canada. I see that a sad attempt at disinformation...
I will grow my own. F them.
So go to the local farmers market. We did fine before we started importing food from every country. We looked forward to summer for the summer fruits, and fall fruits and veggies.
Maybe that’s what we need to slim down as a country.
The lswimpe.pdf from USDA Agricultural Marketing Service lists red meat imports year-to-date 2025
397,984 metric tons total, of which 110,714 metric tons are from Canada [28%]
Fortunately, we raise our own poultry and buy locally for beef and pork.
Gardening season is upon us.
We’ll be OK.
I used to have a neighbor who I would trade tomatoes and other vegetables for venison.
They got fresh tomatoes, peppers and melons and I got deer sausage and chops.
Hell of a deal.
Yeah local farmers market is so winter. Not. Get off your high horse, please.
Its a misnomer that workers who pick our food never leave - they are not illegals but Green Card holders - as for importing food, perhaps you’d like to try the latest eggs from China - made from waste chemicals.
No its is not cheaper to import food in the short or long run. Our food is better quality and could once again be abundant, returning to a net exporter of food.
Go work in the fields if your are not too old. I once did. honest hard work, try it some time.
Not a high horse. I just know the American people are resourceful and remember when we didn’t import food. It really wasn’t that long ago either.
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