Posted on 02/23/2025 12:52:29 PM PST by Salman
The chance that an asteroid capable of wiping out a city will hit Earth in eight years has been cut in half to around 1.5 percent, according to new calculations from NASA.
The drop in odds had been widely anticipated by the global astronomical community, which now broadly expects the probability the asteroid will hit Earth on December 22, 2032 to fall down to zero.
For more than 24 hours, the asteroid did have the highest probability of hitting Earth -- 3.1 percent -- of such a big space rock in modern forecasting.
Updated calculations posted by NASA late Wednesday said the odds of a direct hit had fallen to 1.5 percent.
The European Space Agency's separate calculations plunged to 1.38 percent.
Richard Moissl, head of the ESA's planetary defence office, told AFP this had been expected as the "uncertainty region" where the asteroid could strike starts to "slip off" Earth.
The percentage chance will likely still "wiggle slightly up and down a bit" but is now expected to soon fall below one percent, he added.
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(Excerpt) Read more at spacedaily.com ...
What do the betting markets say? They’re always correct. ;-)
I think DOGE was looking at NASA last week and they knew that their old standby, Global Warming, wouldn’t work with that bunch.
Mankind is self important.
Eventually, either a big rock from space, or a hickup from the sun, will snuff out all life on this planet while some 10 year old screams about her future being robbed from her because of a plastic shopping bag.
Nasa has become click bate.
The one that gets us is probably one that we don’t see coming.
I do not recall that NASA has ever been alarmist about asteroid strikes, or at least any particular asteroid. The probability that an asteroid will strike earth is a mathematical calculation based on well established science (like the science that has accurately predicted lunar eclipses a century in advance). It is not in the least arcane, and the observations are available to anyone who wishes to check their work.
Do not mistake the scientific and astronomical community for the popular press which makes extravagant alarmist headlines about tentative predictions. A 1% chance of an asteroid hitting the earth in seven years is worth worrying about, and obtaining more data for a more precise estimate, but nothing to panic about quite yet.
I always look at timing, and in this case the timing is PERFECT.
A little over 1% chance of it hitting earth (unless they have revised the figure downward), and 3/4 of the earth’s surface is covered by oceans and seas, so for the vast majority of people the odds of being killed by the asteroid are very slight. Meanwhile more than 1% of the US population dies in a typical year, so 7 years from now more than 20 million people now living in the US will have already died.
Darnit, nothing exciting ever happens around here ….
The observations exist independent of NASA. The Europeans see the same things and make the same calculations. At some point it’s paranoia. I was favorably impressed by the NASA’s efforts to tamp down alarm and panic about near earth asteroids going back more than ten years. Yes, they exist, Yes we should worry a little about them.
Remember comet Shoemaker-Levy in 1994? Had that hit earth instead of Jupiter, it would have been a catastrophe. Ever heard of Meteor Crater, Arizona? That was only 50,000 years ago, an instant on the geological scale. Another event like that in a populated area would kill thousands, if not hundreds of thousands. Tunguska was a bullet we dodged barely a 100 years ago.
I don’t believe any of it.
I’ll wait to analyze real estate data & rich people movements throughout 2032 before drawing any conclusions from all the BS.
Timing was PERFECT.
I’ve heard that Tunguska was either a meteor or a comet. It flattened an entire forest in many square miles. Thankfully it hit a sparsely populated area.
Can we do anything about a future meteor or comet heading for earth? Can we blast it somehow and change its trajectory so it would miss earth?
And obviously Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck won’t be able to drill a nuclear warhead into the asteroid to save the day.
Even space rocks fear Trump. :)
As far as perfect timing goes, the next opportunity to refine the orbit will be late in 2028, when it passes the earth again, right on schedule for the election. It makes a close pass late in the year every four years, in sync with the U.S. presidential election cycle, so you could be on to something. The fact that it’s orbital period is almost exactly four years, and it makes close to resonance with the earth. I have a hunch that it may be in 4:1 resonance with earth, the same way that Pluto is in 3:2 resonance with Neptune. Pluto will never drift into Neptune, unless perturbed by an object from outside the solar system.
This rock is coming a little too close for a comfortable resonance. If it’s orbit passed about a million miles above or below the earth’s it would be much safer. Unless something changes it will inevitably hit earth sooner or later.
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