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Asteroid's odds of hitting Earth go up as Webb telescope is tasked with studying potential "city-killer"
CBS News ^ | February 12, 2025 | Emily Mae Czachor

Posted on 02/12/2025 11:44:37 AM PST by Red Badger

An asteroid has a small chance of hitting Earth less than eight years from now, and astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space Telescope to study it. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the asteroid was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our planet have increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency.

The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually reaches this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the asteroid will most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the probability of a crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.

The European Space Agency in January placed the asteroid's odds of hitting Earth at roughly 1%, before NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimated the risk was more like 1.6% at the tail end of the month. Officials at both agencies acknowledge the unlikelihood of 2024 YR4 causing problems, with the ESA saying that current risk estimates are probably unnecessarily high because the people studying it are still uncertain about some of the asteroid's key features.

Right now, astronomers estimate the asteroid is between 40 meters and 90 meters wide, which is roughly 130 to 295 feet wide. For reference, an American football field measures 100 yards β€” or 300 feet β€” long.

"It is very important that we improve our size estimate for 2024 YR4," the ESA said in a statement Monday, which noted "the hazard represented by a 40 m asteroid is very different from that of a 90 m asteroid."

On the slim chance the asteroid does strike Earth in 2032, its impacts would be localized. But 2024 YR4 has nonetheless received a Level 3 rating, out of 10, on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which is a fairly rare distinction meant to represent "a close encounter" that warrants public and scientific attention.

The yellow dots show the position uncertainty of asteroid 2024 YR4 when it encounters Earth in 2032, based on observations up to January 31, 2025. Only 2% of this region, at most, intersects the Earth, which is the small dot at the center of the Moon's orbit. - NASA

"An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region," the ESA said a previous statement about 2024 YR4.

If the asteroid does hit the planet, NASA said its potential impact sites could include areas over the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia.

CBS News space consultant Bill Harwood said if it landed in a populated area, it would "be truly catastrophic," but the effects would be localized.

"It wouldn't be something like the rock that killed the dinosaurs," Harwood said. "It wouldn't affect the global climate, but it would certainly be a disaster of every proportion. So we're all hoping that doesn't happen."

In order to gain a greater understanding of the asteroid and better prepare for whatever is to come, astronomers will use the Webb Telescope to collect data on its size that could not be observed as accurately without the telescope's technology, the ESA said.

Where scientists are generally limited to observing the asteroid based on the amount of visible light it reflects from the sun, with brighter light typically signaling a larger asteroid, the Webb telescope can calculate its infrared emissions, allowing for more accurate estimates.

Webb will begin studying the asteroid in March, when it appears brightest, and again in May, according to the ESA. 2024 YR4 will disappear from view for a while after that, and astronomers will take time to interpret the telescope's data and determine what it could mean for the asteroid's route before it shows itself again in 2028.

VIDEO AT LINK...............

Near Earth Asteroid 2024 YR4 observed with the VLT by European Southern Observatory (ESO) on YouTube


TOPICS: Astronomy; History; Outdoors; Weather
KEYWORDS: 2032
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If an asteroid was actually gonna hit the Earth, do you really think they would tell us?...................
1 posted on 02/12/2025 11:44:37 AM PST by Red Badger
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To: Red Badger

I’d have to know WHICH city before I concern myself ...


2 posted on 02/12/2025 11:46:02 AM PST by SJSAMPLE
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To: Red Badger

Is the asteroid taking suggestions on a city?


3 posted on 02/12/2025 11:46:02 AM PST by kevcol
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To: SJSAMPLE

+/- 20 degrees of the Equator............


4 posted on 02/12/2025 11:47:09 AM PST by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: Red Badger

Fear-porn sells.


5 posted on 02/12/2025 11:54:54 AM PST by fwdude (Why is there a "far/radical right," but damned if they'll admit that there is a far/radical left?)
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To: Red Badger

i was told in driving school, if i look at an on coming car, i will reflexively drive towards it... does the same thing apply to asteroids?


6 posted on 02/12/2025 11:55:13 AM PST by teeman8r (Armageddon won't be pretty, but it's not like it's the end of the world or something )
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To: teeman8r

They never told us that in Driver’s Ed!...............


7 posted on 02/12/2025 11:56:41 AM PST by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: Red Badger
A really good simulator of these various impact sizes by Metalballstudios.

https://youtu.be/ZyyrfB8s5cY?si=O2_RihjI-6D2ADEc

8 posted on 02/12/2025 11:59:48 AM PST by fwdude (Why is there a "far/radical right," but damned if they'll admit that there is a far/radical left?)
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To: Red Badger

“We’re toast” (Bill Murray in “Caddyshack”).


9 posted on 02/12/2025 12:00:31 PM PST by FlingWingFlyer (The trouble with illegal aliens is that their own crappy countries don't even want them there.)
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To: Red Badger

i took driver’s ed at montgomery wards...

one of the things they told me.


10 posted on 02/12/2025 12:03:41 PM PST by teeman8r (Armageddon won't be pretty, but it's not like it's the end of the world or something )
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To: Red Badger

Sure would be too bad if it hits dead center on Mecca...


11 posted on 02/12/2025 12:04:21 PM PST by HartleyMBaldwin
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To: kevcol

πŸ˜†πŸ˜‚πŸ˜„πŸ™ƒπŸ€£πŸ€£πŸ€£


12 posted on 02/12/2025 12:06:14 PM PST by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the Days of Lot; They did Eat, They Drank, They Bought, They Sold ......)
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To: fwdude

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/


13 posted on 02/12/2025 12:11:40 PM PST by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: Red Badger

My drivers ed teacher told us the same thing. Youve heard of him…. The late Joe Smith


14 posted on 02/12/2025 12:12:17 PM PST by j.havenfarm (24 years on Free Republic, 12/10/24! More than 10,500 replies and still not shutting up!)
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To: j.havenfarm

Died in a head-on at night, did he?............


15 posted on 02/12/2025 12:14:23 PM PST by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: Red Badger

Nope....


16 posted on 02/12/2025 12:18:05 PM PST by DesertRhino (2016 Star Wars, 2020 The Empire Strikes Back, 2025... RETURN OF THE JEDI...)
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To: j.havenfarm

I knew him!

He died in his sleep.

Unlike his passengers who were wide awake when the train hit them.


17 posted on 02/12/2025 12:39:20 PM PST by normbal (normbal. somewhere in socialist occupied America β€˜tween MD and TN)
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To: normbal

We try to shoot it down and deliberately miss. Which city?


18 posted on 02/12/2025 2:00:56 PM PST by DIRTYSECRET
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To: normbal

One of my favorite jokes!


19 posted on 02/12/2025 3:17:58 PM PST by j.havenfarm (24 years on Free Republic, 12/10/24! More than 10,500 replies and still not shutting up!)
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To: fwdude

Wow, pretty sobering.


20 posted on 02/12/2025 3:28:53 PM PST by telescope115 (I NEED MY SPACE!!! πŸ”­)
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