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The Stale US Real Estate Market
Armstrong Economics ^ | 6 Jan 25 | Martin Armstrong

Posted on 01/06/2025 2:41:25 PM PST by delta7

Home sales in the US rose to a four-year high after rising 12.1% YoY, according to a new Redfin report. As I stated, we are entered a buyer’s market in May of 2024 in line with the ECM. Gone are the days of bidding wars and skipped inspections. Home inventory has picked up significantly but we are seeing those homes sitting on the market far longer as people simply cannot afford to buy.

Nearly 55% of listed homes have been on the market for over 60 days, a 49.9% increase from last year. The average home takes 43 days to go under contract now, marking the slowest pace since the pre-pandemic era of 2019.

Home prices across the nation as of November 2024 stood at $429,971, which represented a 5.4% YoY increase. The average 30-year mortgage stands at 6.95%, down 4 bps YoY but not enough to attract would-be buyers. The 15-year stands at 6.28%, down 7 bps YoY.

Texas and Florida have the highest rates of homes sitting on the market. The primary reason we are seeing this is a drastic increase in as-is homes in the wake of two hurricanes. Around 57% of homes in Tampa have been sitting on the market for over 60 days. All you need to do is take a look at Zillow or Trulia to see why. People are offloading hurricane-damaged properties that need significant work. It is extremely common to see homes listed with removed drywall or flooring from flood damage. Miami has seen the highest percentage of inventory increases across all metro areas at 63.8%, and although unaffected from the storms, the city has seen a drastic surge in HOA and insurance prices.

“A lot of listings on the market are either stale or uninhabitable. There’s a lot of inventory, but it doesn’t feel like enough,” said Meme Loggins, a Redfin Premier real estate agent. “I explain to sellers that their house will sit on the market if it’s not fairly priced. Homes that are priced well and in good condition are flying off the market in three to five days, but homes that are overpriced can sit for over three months.”

We look to Treasuries to see if there will be a decrease in rates. Again, American real estate cannot be forecast at a national level since there are too many factors at play.

Our computer models indicate that we will see a reversal in trend back to a seller’s market by August 2028. The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: housing; realestate; realty; thetrollagator
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To: TexasGator

I have spent the past few minutes reading dozens of delta7 posts on a wide variety of topics.

Imho delta7 is smarter than Martin Armstrong.

Lol.


61 posted on 01/06/2025 6:07:25 PM PST by cgbg (It is time to pull the Deep State out of the mass media--like ticks from a dog.)
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To: TexasGator

No reason to. I was already familiar with the Wikipedia entry and it’s been discussed over the years multiple times.


62 posted on 01/06/2025 6:07:45 PM PST by aMorePerfectUnion (🦅 MAGADONIAN ⚔️ LIFE )
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To: CottonBall

There’s a huge difference between average and median in home prices!!! If you have nine homes for sale at $100,000, and one for sale at $9.1 million, your average is $1 million, and your median is $100,000.


63 posted on 01/06/2025 6:09:13 PM PST by dangus
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To: cgbg

“citation needed”


64 posted on 01/06/2025 6:09:55 PM PST by Brellium (The environment is of upmost importance, without trees where will we hang Moscovites?)
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To: Brellium

You can read both delta7 and Martin Armstrong for yourself and make your own evaluation.

I gave my opinion—others may not agree.


65 posted on 01/06/2025 6:11:39 PM PST by cgbg (It is time to pull the Deep State out of the mass media--like ticks from a dog.)
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To: dragnet2

“Uh oh...Watch CA next...”

SoCal houses are still selling. But 30% have been full cash offers. Meaning that the buyers are institutional or foreign nationals or both at the same time. Young American couples with two incomes are priced out.


66 posted on 01/06/2025 6:15:37 PM PST by Pelham (President Eisenhower. Operation Wetback 1953-54)
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To: MoneyBack; cgbg; aMorePerfectUnion; delta7

Another connection. The Republic National Bank of New York was involved in the Armstrong ponzi scheme. They agreed to repay to investors the hundreds of millions that Armstrong lost.

–——wiki———

In 1998, Safra’s bank alerted the FBI and the Swiss justice about a possible money laundering scheme involving IMF money, the Republic National Bank of New York and the Republic National Bank of New York (Suisse), some other unidentified outlets, and Russian officials of both the Russian Ministry of Finance and the Russian Central Bank.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmond_Safra


67 posted on 01/06/2025 6:19:14 PM PST by TexasGator (1/|1211i.11'1/'1/11111)
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To: cgbg; TexasGator
Imho delta7 is smarter than Martin Armstrong.
Armstrong Economics is a one man band and he spends all day promoting himself. He can't afford to have someone being active on his behalf as much as delta7 let alone someone smarter than him.


Armstrong posts on his blog site first thing in the morning at about 6AM. By the time we see him here promoting his stuff, he might have smartened up a bit.
68 posted on 01/06/2025 6:19:14 PM PST by MoneyBack
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

“No reason to. I was already familiar with the Wikipedia entry and it’s been discussed over the years multiple times.”

Thanks for the admission of your ties to Armstrong.


69 posted on 01/06/2025 6:21:59 PM PST by TexasGator (1/|1211i.11'1/'1/11111)
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To: cgbg
Imho delta7 is smarter than Martin Armstrong.
Martin Armstrong used 4 different sock puppet accounts in the bitcointalk forum "Martin Armstrong Discussion" that he tried to develop into his echo chamber. He was caught twice and actually admitted it. For an example, see:


Gumbi IS Martin Armstrong


70 posted on 01/06/2025 6:31:47 PM PST by MoneyBack
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

“Still waiting for the actual inks to earlier claims.”

Tell me which ones are not true, first. No need to post links to the ones you agree to be true.


71 posted on 01/06/2025 6:33:06 PM PST by TexasGator (1/|1211i.11'1/'1/11111)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

“You did copy and paste an anonymous blog, which was likely your high point in this conversation.”

You are an anonymous blog poster. The highlight of your life?


72 posted on 01/06/2025 6:42:03 PM PST by TexasGator (1/|1211i.11'1/'1/11111)
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To: TexasGator

I am not anonymous on freerepublic.

As a monthly donor they have my real name, credit card, address and cell phone.


73 posted on 01/06/2025 6:51:54 PM PST by aMorePerfectUnion (🦅 MAGADONIAN ⚔️ LIFE )
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

‘ As a monthly donor they have my real name, credit card, address and cell phone.’

We know. You’re on ‘the list’.

Knock knock.


74 posted on 01/06/2025 6:53:39 PM PST by Fuzz
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To: delta7

State with Best Growth Forecast

Idaho’s one-year growth forecast is +6.81%, based on an analysis of 894 U.S. cities across 50 states.

Florida came in at #2, with a 1-year growth forecast of +6.21%.
For context, the U.S. 1-year growth forecast is +4.20%.

Top 10 States with the Best Real Estate Options in 2024
1. Texas
2. Florida

https://districtlending.com/10-states-with-the-best-real-estate-market/


75 posted on 01/06/2025 6:58:34 PM PST by TexasGator (1/|1211i.11'1/'1/11111)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

“I am not anonymous on freerepublic.”

You are anonymous unless you post your real name.

“As a monthly donor they have my real name, credit card, address and cell phone.”

I had already guessed that. See my earlier post.


76 posted on 01/06/2025 7:02:24 PM PST by TexasGator (1/|1211i.11'1/'1/11111)
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To: TexasGator

Read later.


77 posted on 01/06/2025 7:04:39 PM PST by NetAddicted (MAGA2024)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

“Nor do I suggest anyone purchase anything Armstrong offers.”

I have to ask. Why are you on this thread defending and promoting this scamming convicted felon?


78 posted on 01/06/2025 7:22:06 PM PST by TexasGator (1/|1211i.11'1/'1/11111)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

“Nor do I suggest anyone purchase anything Armstrong offers.”

Interesting wording. Should I read that as you are suggesting that no one should send their money to Armstrong?


79 posted on 01/06/2025 7:37:58 PM PST by TexasGator (1/|1211i.11'1/'1/11111)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

In #47 I asked for your credentials.

I thought you’d share your investment credentials.

If you prefer not to or have none, that is OK.

We’ll assume you are bloviating.


80 posted on 01/06/2025 7:58:18 PM PST by TexasGator (1/|1211i.11'1/'1/11111)
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