The Stale US Real Estate Market

Armstrong Economics ^ | 6 Jan 25 | Martin Armstrong

[delta7]

Home sales in the US rose to a four-year high after rising 12.1% YoY, according to a new Redfin report. As I stated, we are entered a buyer’s market in May of 2024 in line with the ECM. Gone are the days of bidding wars and skipped inspections. Home inventory has picked up significantly but we are seeing those homes sitting on the market far longer as people simply cannot afford to buy.

Nearly 55% of listed homes have been on the market for over 60 days, a 49.9% increase from last year. The average home takes 43 days to go under contract now, marking the slowest pace since the pre-pandemic era of 2019.

Home prices across the nation as of November 2024 stood at $429,971, which represented a 5.4% YoY increase. The average 30-year mortgage stands at 6.95%, down 4 bps YoY but not enough to attract would-be buyers. The 15-year stands at 6.28%, down 7 bps YoY.

Texas and Florida have the highest rates of homes sitting on the market. The primary reason we are seeing this is a drastic increase in as-is homes in the wake of two hurricanes. Around 57% of homes in Tampa have been sitting on the market for over 60 days. All you need to do is take a look at Zillow or Trulia to see why. People are offloading hurricane-damaged properties that need significant work. It is extremely common to see homes listed with removed drywall or flooring from flood damage. Miami has seen the highest percentage of inventory increases across all metro areas at 63.8%, and although unaffected from the storms, the city has seen a drastic surge in HOA and insurance prices.

“A lot of listings on the market are either stale or uninhabitable. There’s a lot of inventory, but it doesn’t feel like enough,” said Meme Loggins, a Redfin Premier real estate agent. “I explain to sellers that their house will sit on the market if it’s not fairly priced. Homes that are priced well and in good condition are flying off the market in three to five days, but homes that are overpriced can sit for over three months.”

We look to Treasuries to see if there will be a decrease in rates. Again, American real estate cannot be forecast at a national level since there are too many factors at play.

Our computer models indicate that we will see a reversal in trend back to a seller’s market by August 2028. The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.

[montag813]

Milton caused some roofs to fail. Often because the shingles on the north side were not melted together, but sometimes for reasons I could not determine.

Perhaps because they're not sending their best.

[MoneyBack]

… and your credentials?

Why? Forget it. Armstrong is a nobody. A scumbag. Even a dummy can see when he and his shills are lying. He is not worth it. You hope we re taking the bait and get into a flame war with you LOL.

[TexasGator]

aMorePerfectUnion

This guy has an important role: Ashley Warren in Martin Armstrong’s Inner Circle.

He defends Martin Armstrong with the full array of the well known lies as here:

aMorePerfectUnion lying
Quote
...
You will not go to any other conference and sit next to central bank managers, family office leaders, etc. at the level of the armstrong economic conference.
...

The full answer is here:

Exposed: https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2024/02/exposed-armstrong-economics-in-free.html

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.7440

[aMorePerfectUnion]

I thought you’d share your investment credentials.

If you prefer not to or have none, that is OK.

We’ll assume you are bloviating.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

Thanks for your blog link, but I don’t know the person you refer to and I’ve been here for +24 years.

Nor do I suggest anyone purchase anything Armstrong offers.

Still waiting for the actual inks to earlier claims.

[cgbg]

“his user ID is delta7”

That is fascinating.

That would mean that Martin Armstrong has been posting here since 2002.

I would think it would be a great use of AI to compare Martin Armstrong’s writing style on his website with delta7 posts here.

I am genuinely curious about this.

[TexasGator]

“
… and your credentials?”

… and your credentials?

Armstrong’s credentials:

Two bankruptcies when trading with own money

Lost $700 million in bad trades with investors’ money

Eleven years in jail for securities fraud

Securities license revoked

Banned from providing financial advice or associating with financial advisors.

[TexasGator]

Excepting a post and assigning a different meant to it is a week known trolling tactic.

[cgbg]

Is delta7 Martin Armstrong or not?

I just sent him a private email and asked him.

Let us see if we get a response.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

So it appears you have no credentials and that’s ok.

You did copy and paste an anonymous blog, which was likely your high point in this conversation.

😂

[TexasGator]

Wiki:

Criminal conviction
In 1999, Japanese fraud investigators accused Armstrong of collecting money from Japanese investors, improperly commingling these funds with funds from other investors, and using the fresh money to cover losses he had incurred while trading.[13] United States prosecutors called it a three-billion-dollar Ponzi scheme.[14] Allegedly assisting Armstrong in his scheme was the Republic New York Corporation, which produced false account statements to reassure Armstrong’s investors. In 2001, the bank agreed to pay US$606 million as restitution for its part in the scandal.[14]

Armstrong was indicted in 1999 and ordered by Judge Richard Owen to turn over fifteen million dollars in gold bars and antiquities bought with the fund’s money; the list included bronze helmets and a bust of Julius Caesar.[15][16] Armstrong produced some of the items but claimed the others were not in his possession; this led to several contempt of court charges brought by the SEC and the CFTC, for which he served seven years in jail until he reached a plea bargain with federal prosecutors.[17][18][19] Under the terms of the agreement, Armstrong admitted to deceiving corporate investors and improperly commingling client funds—actions that according to prosecutors resulted in commodities losses of more than seven hundred million dollars—and was sentenced to five years in prison.[20][15]

He was released from federal custody on 2 September 2011 after serving a total of eleven years behind bars.[21][22]

The case against Armstrong was finally closed in 2017, with the distribution of about $80 million to claim holders by the receiver, according to court filings.[23] Armstrong appealed the refusal of the receiver to transport his remaining possessions from storage lockers in New York and Pennsylvania to him in Florida, but the appeal failed in 2019. Concerning his felony conviction, Armstrong is “unrepentant”, according to Bloomberg.[1]

[MoneyBack]

That is fascinating. That would mean that Martin Armstrong has been posting here since 2002.

Just do it and you will get confirmation.


In case of Armstrong, it's easy enough. You compare his writings he made from prison with his many posts he made at FR. As far as style and syntax errors go, they match. I am not posting the smoking guns here for obvious reasons.

[TexasGator]

“Is delta7 Martin Armstrong or not?

I just sent him a private email and asked him.

Let us see if we get a response.”

Did Armstrong pm you to come to delta7’s aid?

[cgbg]

You can post short excerpts or facts about his life from Armstrong without a problem.

For example I saw in a delta7 post he said he had been in Russia for three years.

I have no clue whether Armstrong ever visited Russia—but if he had spent three years there that would be interesting.

[cgbg]

I don’t know either delta7 or Armstrong or whether they are the same person or not.

I want to know.

[aMorePerfectUnion]

Love your liberal/CIA source.

Thanks.

[TexasGator]

"You compare his writings he made from prison "

[MoneyBack]

You can post short excerpts or facts about his life from Armstrong without a problem. For example I saw in a delta7 post he said he had been in Russia for three years. I have no clue whether Armstrong ever visited Russia—but if he had spent three years there that would be interesting.

Armstrong is well known for making up a lot of stuff. You can almost guarantee that everything he says about himself is fake. He stresses his Russian connection a lot because he has to maintain that myth that he predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union (which is a major component of the story line of his propaganda video "The Forecaster"), and because he needs to sell his book "The Plot to seize Russia".


The only connection to the East that I am aware of is that he had a Ukrainian girl friend.

[TexasGator]

“Love your liberal/CIA source.”

I note that the following people do NOT contest the posted facts.

aMorePerfectUnion

Delta7

Martin Armstrong

[TexasGator]

“He stresses his Russian connection”

Interesting that delta7 also has a Russian connection.

Both are Puntin mouthpieces.