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The Stale US Real Estate Market
Armstrong Economics ^ | 6 Jan 25 | Martin Armstrong

Posted on 01/06/2025 2:41:25 PM PST by delta7

Home sales in the US rose to a four-year high after rising 12.1% YoY, according to a new Redfin report. As I stated, we are entered a buyer’s market in May of 2024 in line with the ECM. Gone are the days of bidding wars and skipped inspections. Home inventory has picked up significantly but we are seeing those homes sitting on the market far longer as people simply cannot afford to buy.

Nearly 55% of listed homes have been on the market for over 60 days, a 49.9% increase from last year. The average home takes 43 days to go under contract now, marking the slowest pace since the pre-pandemic era of 2019.

Home prices across the nation as of November 2024 stood at $429,971, which represented a 5.4% YoY increase. The average 30-year mortgage stands at 6.95%, down 4 bps YoY but not enough to attract would-be buyers. The 15-year stands at 6.28%, down 7 bps YoY.

Texas and Florida have the highest rates of homes sitting on the market. The primary reason we are seeing this is a drastic increase in as-is homes in the wake of two hurricanes. Around 57% of homes in Tampa have been sitting on the market for over 60 days. All you need to do is take a look at Zillow or Trulia to see why. People are offloading hurricane-damaged properties that need significant work. It is extremely common to see homes listed with removed drywall or flooring from flood damage. Miami has seen the highest percentage of inventory increases across all metro areas at 63.8%, and although unaffected from the storms, the city has seen a drastic surge in HOA and insurance prices.

“A lot of listings on the market are either stale or uninhabitable. There’s a lot of inventory, but it doesn’t feel like enough,” said Meme Loggins, a Redfin Premier real estate agent. “I explain to sellers that their house will sit on the market if it’s not fairly priced. Homes that are priced well and in good condition are flying off the market in three to five days, but homes that are overpriced can sit for over three months.”

We look to Treasuries to see if there will be a decrease in rates. Again, American real estate cannot be forecast at a national level since there are too many factors at play.

Our computer models indicate that we will see a reversal in trend back to a seller’s market by August 2028. The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: housing; realestate; realty; thetrollagator
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I can attest to the current Florida housing situation. Just back, lots of “ Deals” if you are willing to hang drywall and install flooring…..but the average price to jack a 60’s, 70’s house to the new 15 foot guideline is $175K plus….
1 posted on 01/06/2025 2:41:25 PM PST by delta7
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To: delta7
Texas and Florida have the highest rates of homes sitting on the market.

Uh oh...Watch CA next...

2 posted on 01/06/2025 2:56:29 PM PST by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: delta7

“Home prices across the nation as of November 2024 stood at $429,971,”

All home prices? Average home prices? The highest home prices? The lowest home prices?

I’ll just assume they mean average but I shouldn’t have to assume anything. If something is poorly written I don’t trust much of else that is in it.


3 posted on 01/06/2025 3:01:19 PM PST by CottonBall (Librela, the new jab for dogs and cats. Pfizer/Zoetis is making billions killing our furbabies.)
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To: delta7

Scam Alert

Our computer models indicate that we will see a reversal in trend back to a seller’s market
That unrepentant convicted felon Martin Armstrong who runs that scam site "Armstrong Economics", which is promoted here, does not have a computer model of anything.


Yes, that's right and proven. Just ask Delta7 how his models work and he will not be able to tell you.


So what is his Socrates? It is a little program that some people wrote for him in the 1980s. It puts out dozens of conflicting signals in all directions.


After the fact, Armstrong cherry-picks in hindsight whatever matched what he now says it predicted.


It's really that simple.


Please note that Armstrong actually believed in this program back then. He used it for trading and lost USD 700 million with it.


And now he sells that junk which he calls "Socrates" as a subscription service for $1,800 per year. Buyer beware!
4 posted on 01/06/2025 3:02:15 PM PST by MoneyBack
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To: delta7

You have to jack your house 15 feet in the air?


5 posted on 01/06/2025 3:05:30 PM PST by BipolarBob (I injured myself measuring radio frequencies. It still Hertz.)
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To: CottonBall

It’s not real current news. This trend has been going on a while. Lots of people holding back to see what Trump does, what interests rates do etc....

Half of All Home Listings Have Gone Extra Stale, Unsold After 60 Days on Market

https://www.redfin.com/news/sales-speed-stale-listings-august-2024/


6 posted on 01/06/2025 3:06:41 PM PST by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: CottonBall; MoneyBack

This whole article is a worthless data salad sprinkled with undefined acronyms. Totally useless.


7 posted on 01/06/2025 3:07:37 PM PST by Larry Lucido (Donate! Don't just post clickbait!)
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To: Larry Lucido

This is from Newsweek. Could be BS too.

Published Jan 06, 2025
Texas House Prices Are Forecast to Fall in 31 Cities

https://www.newsweek.com/texas-house-prices-forecast-fall-31-cities-2010221


8 posted on 01/06/2025 3:16:43 PM PST by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: dragnet2

As a real estatee inspector I’m not surprised. More and more of the houses I inspect have an additional $40 - 50K of necessary repairs (excluding cosmetics) on top of already excessive sale prices. It’s the worst I’ve seen in 25 years.


9 posted on 01/06/2025 3:17:31 PM PST by txeagle
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To: dragnet2

North Texas adds 100K+ new residents every year, our total population now exceeds 8 Million. I don’t expect a decrease in prices anytime soon.


10 posted on 01/06/2025 3:19:59 PM PST by Night Hides Not (Remember the Alamo! Remember Goliad! Remember Gonzales! Come and Take It!)
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To: delta7

Armstrong's ECM Scam

The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model.
Q: What does his ECM predict?

A: Nothing. Here is why:

His ECM (Economic Confidence Model) is a chart of cycle that runs through time with a fixed period, having ups and downs at regular intervals. Armstrong does not say in advance what should happen at its future turns.


After it has turned, he looks through hundreds of charts. Inevitably he will find one that turned at the same time as his ECM, preferably "precisely to the day".


As can be expected, he finds those hindsight matches. In this case, he selected the 2007 high on the Shiller Index.
11 posted on 01/06/2025 3:20:09 PM PST by MoneyBack
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To: txeagle

Wow...


12 posted on 01/06/2025 3:22:38 PM PST by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: delta7

In my Florida county of Sarasota many houses along the coast about 8 feet or less above sea level got inundated by Helene or Milton, or both.

Inland, Helene caused a lot of flooding. Drywall and flooring are easily replaced.

Milton caused some roofs to fail. Often because the shingles on the north side were not melted together, but sometimes for reasons I could not determine.

Not one drop of Milton’s water came through my 31-year-old shingles. A roof vent had one nail hole that leaked. My fake chimney leaked badly. I patched my roof and chimney, but replacement is needed.


13 posted on 01/06/2025 3:22:54 PM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: delta7

Because of high insurance rates, low life is gone in my Florida neighborhood.


14 posted on 01/06/2025 3:24:57 PM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: dragnet2

“ Texas and Florida have the highest rates of homes sitting on the market.”
That may be because people are buying RV’s and moving to the RV villages popping up everywhere in Texas.
Must be cheaper to buy an RV and pay lot lease than to buy a house or rent an apartment.


15 posted on 01/06/2025 3:27:20 PM PST by 9422WMR
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To: delta7

The inability to obtain low-cost insurance keeps slumlords and scum away.

This is making lots of Florida real estate highly valuable.


16 posted on 01/06/2025 3:31:45 PM PST by Brian Griffin
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To: Larry Lucido
Meme Loggins, a Redfin Premier real estate agent

Too many meme's in this article.

17 posted on 01/06/2025 3:43:33 PM PST by HonkyTonkMan ( )
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To: delta7

Until home prices give back a substantial portion (ie about a 25-30% haircut) of the run up they experienced starting about 4 years ago, the market will not recover.


18 posted on 01/06/2025 3:52:35 PM PST by FLT-bird
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To: delta7

My two cents...

I recently inherited a condo. The relative had let it go into foreclosure just before she died. It took 5 months of legal wrangling just to be “allowed” to catch up the payments. The HOA payments are behind as well. After two months on the market we get a buyer. There is an inspection. Long story short, we have put about $30K into the condo just to sell it, at $60K less than our original asking price.

My son is looking for a house. He lives in an apartment and is paying almost $2K a month in rent. He made $110K last year. They would like 3 bedrooms/2 baths in a decent neighborhood. A house payment (PITI) of $2000 a month means a $300K house with $30K down. They start at about $325K around here and that is for an old home in an ishy neighborhood.

My other son bought an older house in Texas for $150K a couple of years ago. They are not fans of it, but they realize they are building equity and this is a starter home. Their property tax is about 25% MORE than our $450K house in New Mexico.

Real Estate is in a weird place.


19 posted on 01/06/2025 4:06:29 PM PST by Crusher138 ("Then conquer we must, for our cause it is just")
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To: Larry Lucido

They certainly didn’t include our area of Texas.

DECENT Homes rarely last on market more than 7 days.

That is longer than a year ago when they’d rarely last 3 days.


20 posted on 01/06/2025 4:06:43 PM PST by Jane Long (Jesus is Lord!)
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