Posted on 01/06/2025 2:41:25 PM PST by delta7
Home sales in the US rose to a four-year high after rising 12.1% YoY, according to a new Redfin report. As I stated, we are entered a buyer’s market in May of 2024 in line with the ECM. Gone are the days of bidding wars and skipped inspections. Home inventory has picked up significantly but we are seeing those homes sitting on the market far longer as people simply cannot afford to buy.
Nearly 55% of listed homes have been on the market for over 60 days, a 49.9% increase from last year. The average home takes 43 days to go under contract now, marking the slowest pace since the pre-pandemic era of 2019.
Home prices across the nation as of November 2024 stood at $429,971, which represented a 5.4% YoY increase. The average 30-year mortgage stands at 6.95%, down 4 bps YoY but not enough to attract would-be buyers. The 15-year stands at 6.28%, down 7 bps YoY.
Texas and Florida have the highest rates of homes sitting on the market. The primary reason we are seeing this is a drastic increase in as-is homes in the wake of two hurricanes. Around 57% of homes in Tampa have been sitting on the market for over 60 days. All you need to do is take a look at Zillow or Trulia to see why. People are offloading hurricane-damaged properties that need significant work. It is extremely common to see homes listed with removed drywall or flooring from flood damage. Miami has seen the highest percentage of inventory increases across all metro areas at 63.8%, and although unaffected from the storms, the city has seen a drastic surge in HOA and insurance prices.
“A lot of listings on the market are either stale or uninhabitable. There’s a lot of inventory, but it doesn’t feel like enough,” said Meme Loggins, a Redfin Premier real estate agent. “I explain to sellers that their house will sit on the market if it’s not fairly priced. Homes that are priced well and in good condition are flying off the market in three to five days, but homes that are overpriced can sit for over three months.”
We look to Treasuries to see if there will be a decrease in rates. Again, American real estate cannot be forecast at a national level since there are too many factors at play.
Our computer models indicate that we will see a reversal in trend back to a seller’s market by August 2028. The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.
Uh oh...Watch CA next...
“Home prices across the nation as of November 2024 stood at $429,971,”
All home prices? Average home prices? The highest home prices? The lowest home prices?
I’ll just assume they mean average but I shouldn’t have to assume anything. If something is poorly written I don’t trust much of else that is in it.
Our computer models indicate that we will see a reversal in trend back to a seller’s marketThat unrepentant convicted felon Martin Armstrong who runs that scam site "Armstrong Economics", which is promoted here, does not have a computer model of anything.
You have to jack your house 15 feet in the air?
It’s not real current news. This trend has been going on a while. Lots of people holding back to see what Trump does, what interests rates do etc....
Half of All Home Listings Have Gone Extra Stale, Unsold After 60 Days on Market
https://www.redfin.com/news/sales-speed-stale-listings-august-2024/
This whole article is a worthless data salad sprinkled with undefined acronyms. Totally useless.
This is from Newsweek. Could be BS too.
Published Jan 06, 2025
Texas House Prices Are Forecast to Fall in 31 Cities
https://www.newsweek.com/texas-house-prices-forecast-fall-31-cities-2010221
As a real estatee inspector I’m not surprised. More and more of the houses I inspect have an additional $40 - 50K of necessary repairs (excluding cosmetics) on top of already excessive sale prices. It’s the worst I’ve seen in 25 years.
North Texas adds 100K+ new residents every year, our total population now exceeds 8 Million. I don’t expect a decrease in prices anytime soon.
The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model.Q: What does his ECM predict?
Wow...
In my Florida county of Sarasota many houses along the coast about 8 feet or less above sea level got inundated by Helene or Milton, or both.
Inland, Helene caused a lot of flooding. Drywall and flooring are easily replaced.
Milton caused some roofs to fail. Often because the shingles on the north side were not melted together, but sometimes for reasons I could not determine.
Not one drop of Milton’s water came through my 31-year-old shingles. A roof vent had one nail hole that leaked. My fake chimney leaked badly. I patched my roof and chimney, but replacement is needed.
Because of high insurance rates, low life is gone in my Florida neighborhood.
“ Texas and Florida have the highest rates of homes sitting on the market.”
That may be because people are buying RV’s and moving to the RV villages popping up everywhere in Texas.
Must be cheaper to buy an RV and pay lot lease than to buy a house or rent an apartment.
The inability to obtain low-cost insurance keeps slumlords and scum away.
This is making lots of Florida real estate highly valuable.
Too many meme's in this article.
Until home prices give back a substantial portion (ie about a 25-30% haircut) of the run up they experienced starting about 4 years ago, the market will not recover.
My two cents...
I recently inherited a condo. The relative had let it go into foreclosure just before she died. It took 5 months of legal wrangling just to be “allowed” to catch up the payments. The HOA payments are behind as well. After two months on the market we get a buyer. There is an inspection. Long story short, we have put about $30K into the condo just to sell it, at $60K less than our original asking price.
My son is looking for a house. He lives in an apartment and is paying almost $2K a month in rent. He made $110K last year. They would like 3 bedrooms/2 baths in a decent neighborhood. A house payment (PITI) of $2000 a month means a $300K house with $30K down. They start at about $325K around here and that is for an old home in an ishy neighborhood.
My other son bought an older house in Texas for $150K a couple of years ago. They are not fans of it, but they realize they are building equity and this is a starter home. Their property tax is about 25% MORE than our $450K house in New Mexico.
Real Estate is in a weird place.
They certainly didn’t include our area of Texas.
DECENT Homes rarely last on market more than 7 days.
That is longer than a year ago when they’d rarely last 3 days.
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