Posted on 12/23/2024 6:17:46 AM PST by MtnClimber
It has been obvious now for many years to the numerate that the fantasy future powered by wind and sun is not going to happen. Sooner or later, reality will inevitably intrude. And yet, the fantasy has gone on for far longer than I ever would have thought possible. Hundreds of billions of dollars of government largesse have been a big part of the reason, going not just to green energy developers but also to academic charlatans and environmental NGOs to fan the flames of climate alarm.
It was three years ago, in December 2021, that I asked the question, “Which Country Or U.S. State Will Be The First To Hit The Green Energy Wall?” The “green energy wall” would occur when addition of wind and solar generators to the grid could no longer continue, either due to regular blackouts or soaring costs or both. Candidates for first to hit the wall considered in that post included California, New York, Germany and the UK. I wrote then:
All these places, despite their wealth and seeming sophistication, are embarking on their ambitious plans without ever having conducted any kind of detailed engineering study of how their new proposed energy systems will work or how much they will cost. . . . As these jurisdictions ramp up their wind and solar generation, and gradually eliminate the coal and natural gas, sooner or later one or another of them is highly likely to hit a “wall” — that is, a situation where the electricity system stops functioning, or the price goes through the roof, or both, forcing a drastic alteration or even abandonment of the whole scheme.
Three years on, it looks like Germany is winning the race to the wall. After a couple of decades of “Energiewende,” Germany has closed all of its nuclear plants and much of its fossil fuel capacity, with a huge build-out of wind and solar generation. How’s that going? The German site NoTricksZone posts today an English translation of a piece yesterday by Fritz Vahrenholt at the site Klimanachrichten (Climate News). The translated headline is “Two brief periods of wind doldrums and Germany’s power supply reaches its limits.” Excerpt:
From November 2 to November 8 and from December 10 to December 13, Germany’s electricity supply from renewable energies collapsed as a typical winter weather situation with a lull in the wind and minimal solar irradiation led to supply shortages, high electricity imports and skyrocketing electricity prices. At times, over 20,000 MW, more than a quarter of Germany’s electricity requirements, had to be imported. Electricity prices rose tenfold (93.6 €ct/kWh).
They avoided blackouts this time (barely) by importing more than a quarter of their electricity during the times of wind/sun drought. But the sudden demands for huge imports caused the spot price of electricity in the markets to soar, affecting not only Germany but also the neighbors who supplied the power. Vahrenholt provides this map indicating the prices reached during the December wind/sun drought:
€ 936.28/MWh is almost $1 per kWh. And that’s a wholesale price; retail would be at least double. By contrast, average U.S. electricity prices are well under $0.20/kWh.
Vahrenholt reasonably attributes the huge price spikes to elimination of reliable nuclear and fossil fuel plants, leaving Germany subject to the vagaries of the wind and sun:
The reason [for the price spikes]: The socialist/green led coalition government and the prior Merkel governments had decommissioned 19 nuclear power plants (30% of Germany’s electricity demand) and 15 coal-fired power plants were taken off the grid on April 1, 2023 alone.
From Wolfgang Große Entrup, Managing Director of the German Chemical Industry Association:
“It’s desperate. Our companies and our country cannot afford fair-weather production. We urgently need power plants that can step in safely.”
It is also clear from Vahrenholtz’s map how Germany’s sudden surge of demand affected the countries that supplied the imports on short notice — particularly Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Austria. Here is the reaction in Norway:
Norway’s energy minister in the center-left government, Terja Aasland, wants to cut the power cable to Denmark and renegotiate the electricity contracts with Germany. He is thus responding to the demands of the right-wing Progress Party, which has been calling for this for a long time and will probably win the next elections. According to the Progress Party, the price infection from the south must be stopped.
And the same from Sweden:
Swedish Energy Minister Ebba Busch was even clearer: “It is difficult for an industrial economy to rely on the benevolence of the weather gods for its prosperity.” And directly to Habeck’s green policy: “No political will is strong enough to override the laws of physics – not even Mr. Habeck’s.”
When the neighbors decline to continue to supply Germany with imports during its wind/sun droughts, then it will be blackouts instead of price spikes. We continue to move slowly toward that inevitability.
In other news from Germany, its auto industry is struggling (also from soaring energy prices, not to mention EV mandates), and its government has just fallen. Economic growth has ground to a halt. This is what the green energy wall looks like. Elections will be held some time in the new year.
I’m feeling cautiously optimistic that the world will wake up from the green energy bad dream before the damage turns to disaster. Our incoming U.S. administration seems to have caught on. Germany, sorry you had to be the guinea pig for this failed experiment.
I am in support into research or trials of new energy forms. I do not support change for the sake of change or as a form of demonizing the current status quo which seems the goal of the left.
Manhattan Contrarian ping
More nukes, less kooks.
Make no mistake.....It’s a religion for the Godless.
I also support researching renewables to find the best form of each renewable, as well as their limitations of where they work best.
Maybe one day, we will have devices optimized economically for the sun and wind and whatnot. Just not right now and probably not within our lifetimes.
“...I am in support into research or trials of new energy forms. I do not support change for the sake of change or as a form of demonizing the current status quo which seems the goal of the left....”
Fully agree, but ^THIS^ is waaaaaayyyyyyy too much common sense and intelligence for communist leftists that’s hellbent on destroying a nation and her people.....
Did they decommission working nuclear plants, and if so, why? Seems counterintuitive to me, but I also think reliable energy is important
Pres Trump should appoint a “Green Energy Czar” 8mmedistley, and on the first day, the czar should fire every last useless green energy job worker, claiming that he had to do so in order to “save th3 planet” because it was costing too much, and using too many natural resources to keep supplying all their paychecks- too many trees were being destroyed in order to keep paying them!
Then when the left complain that they could be paid electronically, explain 5o them that it takes far more energy to do so to run the computers and such.
When they complain again, ask them why they are complaining about saving the erff? Ask them why they oppose the very agenda that they espoused when they held office?
This is our second "go-round" with this fantasy, which was a big deal during the Jimmy Carter debacle. "Oh but NOW we have the technology!!!" Not.
That Second Law of Thermodynamics always rears it's ugly head.
TANSTAAFL
If one people want to “end fossil fuels”, they should be advocating for the wide spread expanded use of them. Unless there is some astonishing break throughs in technology, “green” energy is not going to be able to compete with “fossil fuels” “Green Energy” is neither efficient, or cost effective, enough to complete with other power sources like Coal, Oil and Natural Gas.
The Biden regime tried to use regulation to drive up the price of oil and gas and subsides to try and make “green energy” more affordable. Instead they created a massive cost push inflation world wide.
The only way to end the use of “fossil fuels” is to use them up. Until then they will be the best bang for the buck.
The problem with warnings about pending green energy failures are like global warming catastrophes. Until they actually happen, nothing will change.
I’d say it wasn’t a failed “experiment”. It was (and continues to be a) successful GRIFT. Many people have become wealthy by stealing citizens’ monies through this criminal fraud.
This is only about forcing productive labor, primarily manufacturing, out of first world countries and into the slave-labor markets of the third world. Profits will increase as environmental laws no longer apply.
Even if we can drive a stake through the heart of the "Green" scam, millions of Americans will still clamor for some "cause" to make their sanctimonious, esoteric selves feel superior. And there will be opportunists willing to fill that void, for a fee.
Will it take twice as long to get back to sane policies as it did to implement the grennsanity? Ignorance is no excuse but here we are. 😊👍🎅🙏
Green energy supporters in government are not deluded. Green energy is a weapon in the Left’s arsenal to:
- Launder money back to leftist leadership
- Cause chaos, a requirement for the left’s maintenance of power
- Destroy the middle class
“Research” is another word for providing a safe harbor for bad ideas, more apt to produce political force than electrical. Without the discipline of the marketplace, there is no accountability. When you add in the scientific ignorance of almost all politicians, you have a recipe for disaster.
I wish there was a requirement that talking heads on TV, both politicians and media, post their highest level science course completed. Do you suppose all those law degree holders were taking physics - or were they taking easy social science courses to pump up their GPAs to get admitted to already overcrowded law schools? I bet I know the answer.
I agree with you that research should not come from the government, where the government has an interest in it because of corruption.
However, in principle, I don’t have a problem researching renewables to see what comes of it.
“Climate Change” is the forced global religion being used to enslave the world under one government.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.