Trump’s Treasury Pick Is Poised to Test ‘Three Arrows’ Economic Strategy

The New York Times ^ | Dec. 13, 2024, 11:54 a.m. ET | Alan Rappeport and Rebecca F. Elliott

[E. Pluribus Unum]

When Prime Minister Shinzo Abe set out to rejuvenate Japan’s economy more than a decade ago, he laid out a strategy known as the “Three Arrows,” which aimed to banish deflation by easing monetary policy, increasing government spending and restructuring the economy so that it was poised for growth.

President-elect Donald J. Trump could soon brandish three arrows of his own. Mr. Trump’s Treasury secretary pick, Scott Bessent, has mapped out a three-pronged approach to jump-starting a U.S. economy that has been saddled with inflation and sluggish output. The concept, which he billed during the campaign as his 3-3-3 plan, entails increasing growth to 3 percent, cutting the budget deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product and raising U.S. energy production by three million barrels of oil per day, or the equivalent in other fuels.

A longtime hedge fund investor, Mr. Bessent has been a student of “Abenomics” since his days as the top money manager for the billionaire philanthropist George Soros. In that role, he met regularly with advisers to Mr. Abe and traveled from New York City to Tokyo on a monthly basis. He also famously bet against the yen.

“I became convinced that Abe and his circle of advisers would commit to directing all of the resources of the prime minister’s office to this multipronged and daunting task,” Mr. Bessent wrote in a 2022 essay in The International Economy magazine.

While Mr. Trump has made broad economic promises on the campaign trail this year to supercharge the economy, slash the debt and unleash energy production, Mr. Bessent’s benchmarks offer a more specific scorecard against which Mr. Trump’s economic performance can be measured at the end of his term.

[ConservativeMind]

“…Increasing government spending…?”

[HartleyMBaldwin]

But what about the three seashells economic strategy?

[Pelham]

““…Increasing government spending…?”

That’s Abe’s recipe for Japan, where they are experiencing deflation and economic growth of slightly over 1%.

[axxmann]

That was Abe. Trump’s (Bessent’s) 3 are different...keep reading further in the post.

[Jonty30]

Increasing government spending only works if it’s for one time Manhattan style projects. But the spending than has to be paid off in order for it to not cripple the economy.

[lodi90]

President Trump has never been shy about spending. No doubt he will cut a budget deal with Schumer much to the disgust of fiscal conservatives.

[Colorado Doug]

This must be taken with a grain of salt since it’s the New York Slimes. It doesn’t even mention Trump’s other drivers of a robust economy, such as getting the government’s boots off of the necks of producers with massive deregulation plus cutting wasteful spending and perhaps even entire agencies. Did I mention tariffs?

[ProtectOurFreedom]

How about a 3-0-3 plan? ZERO budget deficit; aka, a balanced budget.

[ConservativeMind]

“…cutting the budget deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product…”

The current Gross Domestic Product for 2023 was $22.7 trillion, so President Trump wants to have an annual budget deficit of $681,000,000,000.

I don’t want a budget deficit of anything—I want a surplus.

[Jonty30]

I agree with you. Mandatory reduction of deficits and paying back the debt should be a super-majority law and a single line in the budget. Not as a percentage of the economy, but in real defined dollars.

[Choppo]

We’re in debt, it should be at least 3% surplus. The target should be no national debt but a surplus.

[spintreebob]

1. Drill baby, drill.
2. Cut Both Biden & Obama/Bush Regulations.
Let the market be efficient
3. Cut all woke spending and regulations.
Cut DEI. Cut Climate Amageddon Religion.