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The Coming EU Depression into 2028?
Armstrong Economics ^ | 3 Dec 24 | Martin Armstrong

Posted on 12/03/2024 7:49:09 AM PST by delta7

QUESTION: I want to apologize and thank you. I thought you were just a Trump supporter, but your warning that his tariffs can send the world into a depression demonstrated not just that I was wrong but that you are a genuinely impartial and independent voice in the wilderness. Here in Europe, for the last six months, the newspapers have presented Trump as the devil with no hope whatsoever. Everything you warned here about our economy with climate change and warmongering is correct. The migrant crisis combined with the economy turning down, you warned, would lead to rising civil unrest here as well. With the wave of layoffs in the auto industry, the German economy is in crash mode, as you had forecast.

A friend of mine has followed you since the 1980s. He has been telling me you were the most honest man he ever encountered, and everything you do is to try to steer the world through this chaos into 2032. I can see by your actions that he has been correct. Somehow, we have to get our leaders to listen.

Where do you see Germany headed now on your timeline?

ANSWER: Unfortunately, it has been preordained that we are headed into a recession in some areas and a depression in others, especially in Europe. Trump will be blamed, as Herbert Hoover was, but in both cases, the trends were preordained. Trump, with the bad advice he has been given regarding tariffs, is likely to end up destroying the Republican Party and the implosion we are witnessing in the Democrats.

The core foundation of the entire European economy is Germany, its richest nation. As they used to say about America, if it catches a cold, the rest of the world suffers pneumonia. They say that behind the headlines of “Deutschland,” it has been structured on the automobile, which has also given rise to dubbing it “Autoland.”

German cars have long been regarded as the best in the world. Indeed, Europe’s most prosperous business engine has been relying on automobiles, and the climate change agenda has been like you kill a vampire – driving a stake through the heart.

Volkswagen, Europe’s number one car manufacturer, has threatened thousands of job cuts and potential plant closures in Germany as it confronts unions over inflation. The climate change agenda has had a major impact on lowering demand, and on top of that, they are finding stiff resistance to higher-end electric cars. The current cost-cutting layoffs and proposed German plant closings are sending shockwaves into the global marketplace with worldwide implications. Automakers like Mercedes Benz, BMW, Ford, and other industrial giants are all cutting costs and employees across the country. However, Volkswagen announced layoffs for tens of thousands of workers and is considering unheard-of plant closings. The world’s largest auto parts supplier, Bosch, which is one of Germany’s biggest employers, is also reducing both hours and pay for about 10,000 employees. Even Meyer Werft, the German shipbuilder from the 1800s, also recently needed a US$423 million bailout to avoid bankruptcy.

The economic policies of Brussels have absolutely undermined the entire European economy of the EU. As I have also warned many times, Germany has clung to the old Mercantile economic model, keeping taxes high to prevent inflation and manufacturing products to sell to everyone else to bring home the profits.

The auto industry will account for up to 17% of German exports in 2023. The total amount of jobs this has accounted for exceeds 750,000 people. German manufacturing has been unable to recover fully since COVID-19 2020. To this day, it has, at best, recovered to only 90% of pre-COVID levels.

The RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA propaganda of the Neocons has severely impacted Germany with the destruction of Nord Stream. The Government refuses to turn on the second pipeline and instead has forced its economy to suffer at least a 300% increase in energy costs. With cheap Russian gas no longer viable and exports to China declining, the war policies of the EU coupled with the economic crisis created by climate change and the cost of funding unproductive migrants, the prospects for the economy of Europe are pointing toward somewhat hard times into 2026. This will most likely contribute to tensions and pointing fingers at Russia to justify war being pushed by NATO.

In late October, Merceds-Benz reported that group profit dropped over 50% year over year, and Ford announced plans to cut its European workforce by 4,000 as well. Germany has depended more on Moscow and Beijing than all other EU countries. With ministers in Germany calling for Article 5 under NATO for a hybrid attack, they are unquestionably undermining the German economy with all of this geopolitical tension thrust on Europe by the Neocons. NATO is pushing to expand operations to Asia, and this is further undermining the German economy in the long term, transforming China from a viable trading partner into a systemic long-term enemy. No leaders are even interested in peace, and they are just doing as directed by the Neocons and NATO, who have no interest in the economy of the people – only waging war.

This lethal combination means that Germany’s entire economic model is under assault from every direction. Then, the tariffs of Trump’s proposals will be added, which will be the final nail in the coffin of the EU. This hybrid Merchantile Model of Germany no longer works. Germany needs major reforms, and that is not likely with Brussels in charge.

This immediate lethal combination with a very cold winter expected on our model warns that Germany is headed into a serious recession for the next two years. Brussels is too interested in retaining centralized power and control over the EU member states, and it is ignoring the ripple effect of the decline in Germany throughout Europe.

THIS IS WHY THEY WILL TURN TO WAR

There is no question that the German economy is going to go down hard as this lethal combination of climate change and migration moves to give a death blow to the industrial backbone of Europe, and the politicians are too caught up in the narrative to question the rhetoric.

The French head of state met the Finnish president and the Swedish prime minister, and all that came out of it was defense for war. This was an opportunity to carve a new path, but it was dominated by the Neocon speaking points – RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA. Macron only pushed the lifelong dream of Charles de Gaul (1890-1970), which was that France should rise to lead all of Europe – the Napoleon dream.……more….


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: economy; eu; germany; neocons
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Time will tell. In any case, senile Joe’s effort ( and the EU) to destroy Russia has again backfired, destroying instead Germany and the EU economy….i am shedding no tears for the war cheerleaders.

Perhaps the US will learn a lesson about their forever wars.

1 posted on 12/03/2024 7:49:09 AM PST by delta7
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To: delta7

>> German cars have long been regarded as the best in the world. Indeed, Europe’s most prosperous business engine has been relying on automobiles, and the climate change agenda has been like you kill a vampire – driving a stake through the heart.

It is amazing and incredible that Germany (and the UK) caved in to the insanity of the climatistas and willfully committed industrial suicide.


2 posted on 12/03/2024 7:51:54 AM PST by Nervous Tick ("First the Saturday people, then the Sunday people...": ISLAM is the problem!)
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To: delta7

Here’s hoping.


3 posted on 12/03/2024 7:57:51 AM PST by No name given ( Anonymous is who you’ll know me as)
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To: Nervous Tick

It is amazing and incredible that Germany (and the UK) caved in to the insanity of the climatistas and willfully committed industrial suicide.
——————
$$$, and lots of it. Claus Schwab and his WEF. It is stunning to see how many EU leaders and NGO’s attend his World Forums., even Trudeau of Canada….


4 posted on 12/03/2024 8:00:11 AM PST by delta7
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To: delta7

https://www.weforum.org/about/klaus-schwab/

Be sure to do your homework on this Schwab clown and their “ mission”.


5 posted on 12/03/2024 8:01:35 AM PST by delta7
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To: Nervous Tick

Lay this at the feet of Angela Merkel. She freaked after Fukushima and her green deputy induced her to pull the plug on Germany’s nuclear energy production. She needed the greens to keep her coalition government intact, so she was a more or less willing hostage to the fanatic climate doomers. Now all Germany and the rest of Europe are paying the price for the blunder of “Energiewende.” Trump’s hypothetical tariffs are the least of Germany’s worries.


6 posted on 12/03/2024 8:07:16 AM PST by hinckley buzzard ( Resist the narrative.)
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To: delta7
Trump, with the bad advice he has been given regarding tariffs, is likely to end up destroying the Republican Party and the implosion we are witnessing in the Democrats.

The EU charges a 10% duty on imported US made vehicles.

7 posted on 12/03/2024 8:08:39 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: delta7
ANSWER: Unfortunately, it has been preordained that we are headed into a recession in some areas and a depression in others, especially in Europe. Trump will be blamed, as Herbert Hoover was, but in both cases, the trends were preordained. Trump, with the bad advice he has been given regarding tariffs, is likely to end up destroying the Republican Party and the implosion we are witnessing in the Democrats.

Based on the BS above, I wouldn't read this globalist's lamenting and carping.

8 posted on 12/03/2024 8:10:39 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: delta7

Actually German cars are fall apart junk now. Volkswagens are terrible with serious drivetrain troubles. VW, Audi, BMW and MB use cheap plastic extensively in their engine bays. Do not buy a used German car from recent years.

But if this guy is such a genius why hasn’t he figured out Trump’s negotiation tactics? He always starts out demanding the moon.


9 posted on 12/03/2024 8:11:15 AM PST by Seruzawa ("The Political left is the Garden of Eden of incompetence" - Marx the Smarter (Groucho))
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To: Nervous Tick

“German cars have long been regarded as the best in the world.”

Known for high depreciation and costly maintenance!


10 posted on 12/03/2024 8:11:24 AM PST by TexasGator (1./')
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To: Seruzawa

“Actually German cars are fall apart junk now.”

And previously. The resale values fell quickly because after three years maintenance repairs skyrocket.


11 posted on 12/03/2024 8:13:52 AM PST by TexasGator (1./')
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To: delta7

Fear and loathing in.....EUtopia?


12 posted on 12/03/2024 8:13:56 AM PST by rktman (Destroy America from within ? Check! WTH? Enlisted USN 1967 to end up with this💩? 🚫💉! 🇮🇱👍!)
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To: delta7

If there’s a party and all the popular girls go and you don’t, that means you’re a nobody. I think that’s why they go. Oh, and to show everyone they have a private jet. Nothing says “I love the planet” like a private jet .


13 posted on 12/03/2024 8:14:02 AM PST by Gen.Blather (Wait! I said that out loud? )
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To: delta7
FYI:

Eu import tariffs on US goods

The European Union imposes tariffs on various U.S. goods. These tariffs are part of the EU's common customs tariff and are detailed in the Integrated Tariff (TARIC)2. The tariffs can vary depending on the product, ranging from agricultural goods to industrial products.

For example, in November 2020, the EU imposed additional tariffs of 15% on large civil aircraft and 25% on other U.S. goods. These measures are often part of broader trade disputes or retaliatory actions.

14 posted on 12/03/2024 8:15:40 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: Nervous Tick

> It is amazing and incredible that Germany (and the UK) caved in to the insanity of the climatistas and willfully committed industrial suicide. <

And this was done with absolutely no debate. Al Gore said it was “settled science”, so anyone who objected was either ignored or shouted down.

But science is never settled. Challenges should be encouraged, not suppressed. Shame on the scientific community for being so easily bullied.


15 posted on 12/03/2024 8:17:03 AM PST by Leaning Right (It’s morning in America. Again.)
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To: delta7

“A friend of mine has followed you since the 1980s. He has been telling me you were the most honest man he ever encountered”

ROTFLMAO! Armstrong spent 11 years in prison for securities fraud. Manufactured fake reports to hide investors’ losses.


16 posted on 12/03/2024 8:17:16 AM PST by TexasGator (1./')
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To: Nervous Tick

When depression comes will rise a wave of Ne0-Fascism. New symbols, SOS. See you in the Book Burning Rally! This time it may well be Korans that go to the flames.


17 posted on 12/03/2024 8:23:37 AM PST by Forward the Light Brigade (. War is Hell, War IS a Crime.)
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To: delta7

“The migrant crisis combined with the economy turning down, you warned, would lead to rising civil unrest here as well.”

Armstrong/delta7 predict a US civil war starting next year with the US breaking up into four new countries in 2026!


18 posted on 12/03/2024 8:26:43 AM PST by TexasGator (1./')
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To: Seruzawa

> Actually German cars are fall apart junk now. <

Yep. It’s not 1980 anymore. And on a related note, well-respected Toyota has been issuing quite a few recalls lately. I hope Toyota is not going the way of the German car manufacturers.

Oh, well. I guess I’ll be holding on to my old Ford for the foreseeable future. (New Fords are problematic, and way too expensive.)


19 posted on 12/03/2024 8:28:27 AM PST by Leaning Right (It’s morning in America. Again.)
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To: Seruzawa

“Do not buy a used German car from recent years.”

Do not buy a used German car.


20 posted on 12/03/2024 8:29:27 AM PST by TexasGator (1./')
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