Posted on 11/08/2024 7:45:59 AM PST by marcusmaximus
President Vladimir Putin is ready to discuss Ukraine with Donald Trump but that does not mean he is willing to alter Moscow's demands, the Kremlin said on Friday.
Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov made the remarks after being asked at his daily news briefing if Putin's readiness to talk to the Republican president-elect reflected a willingness to change those demands.
"The president has never said that the goals of the special military operation are changing. On the contrary, he has repeatedly said that they remain the same," Peskov said.
-snip-
Putin on June 14 set out his terms for an end to the war: Ukraine would have to drop its NATO ambitions and withdraw all of its troops from all of the territory of four regions claimed by Russia.
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
Yes, Russia has bad demographics with 1.5 child per woman, and yet that is STILL better than most of our European partners and far better than Ukraine at 1.3. Why do you only mention a negative with respect to Russia?
Even we in the US at 1.7 are under our needed replacement rate (2.1) and we rely on mass immigration (which we ironically complain about) to sustain our labor and tax base.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate
As to the rest of that post, just a long string of emotional words “failed, aggression, corrupt, autocrat...” junk.
The US and Russia are both oligarchies where you have a ruling elite. Both violate their constitution left and right, both back up despots, torture, kidnap, assassinate...
However, it is the US that post 1991 was the last remaining super power and has learned to use its military/intel might to it's advantage at every opportunity.
—Today, it is the US that has more troops abroad than any other nation.
—Is based in more countries than any other nation.
—Spends more on war than any other nation.
—Exports more arms than any other nation.
—Sponsors more coups than any other nation
—Has a larger war industrial complex than any other nation.
—Has invaded more nations than any other nation.
—Occupies more nations than any other nation.
—Has attacked or bombed more nations, than any other nation.
—Backs more despots than any other nation.
But sure, peace, human rights, sovereignty, bla bla bla.
Tell me, when 4 different elected leaders in Iraq, over 21 years ask us to please leave, but we don't, what is that called? In our news, military assistance, peace and stabilization... hahaha. It's called “occupation.”
What is it called when we kidnap people? Extra ordinary rendition.
What is it called when we torture people? Enhanced interrogations.
We have euphemisms for assassinations, we sponsor coups, we overthrow democratically elected government's if these are not of our liking...
Please, stop it with the Captain America we're the good guys for peace and democracy and they are the communist atheist Soviet Union crap.
Ukraine is simply two elephants humping over who has control over that real estate. Since it is a mere economic interest for us, but a real and imminent security interest for Russia, they are willing to play harder and longer than we will.
We can't even articulate a national security interest for our involvement in Ukraine!
The Russians can, but we can't.
All our attempts to do such usually end with some make belief Boogieman where we pretend Russia is going to invade Western Europe (not even remotely feasible), or we rely on Cold War cliche.
Tell, for me as an average American, how has this war made me:
—More wealthy
—More safe
—More free
It hasn't, except for a small few that become rich selling arms.
This war was caused by this: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/
Just because you say “unprovoked” 100 times doesn't make it so. NATO East expansion, that was our decision to make, we knew we were crossing a red line, and we did it anyway. We didn't back off after we crossed that line.
We are hypocrites because we would NEVER accept what we are expecting Russia to accept. And this comes on the heels of us trying to strip Russia of Syria (where we invaded), Libya (who we bombed), Venezuela where we sponsored coups, and Iraq (which we occupy) and were all Russian aligned and COINCIDENTALLY oil producing nations.
This came after we withdraw from the ballistic missile treaty, violate Minsk, violate Montreux, and grossly violated the CFE. But sure, “unprovoked.” HAHAHA
You do know Captain America is fiction, right?
Keep in mind that Putin's idiotic plan assumed that Ukraine would quickly collapse and lead to an enhancement of Russian power. Instead, Ukraine fought and Russia's profound military weakness was exposed. Russia is now bleeding out and faces a NATO enhanced by new members like Finland and Sweden, greater defense spending, and an awakening of Russia's malign nature under Putin.
Russia, a deeply cultured Christian nation, surely deserves better than her thieving and stupid rulers offer. As most Russian's realize, Ukraine was a prize foolishly coveted by Putin, but China was and is a real threat to Russia.
China is more likely to move against the Russian Far East and win than against Taiwan, which would be a tougher target likely to lead to war with the US. If China attacks Russia, who would come to Russia's assistance? China is restrained mostly by the potential loss of overseas markets in response to sanctions.
As for the US's military strength and global deployment, it is permissive and based on the simple point that most countries in the world prefer a strong US. Iraqis were surprised that when their parliament voted for US forces to leave Iraq, the US did as requested, with only a small force remaining to train the Iraqi military and as a counter to Iran.
Funny how demographics works. Surveys now show that, after Trump's win, conservative couples in the US want more children. A US baby boom is coming.
“Yet side deals did not permit the Soviet Union to survive.”
Longer than it should have because of them. The NATO moochers undercut us dealing with Iran too. In the end, our “allies” will stab us in the back and leave us holding the bag again.
How do you know how much of the Russian economy is working for war? What “trust of the world” Russia has to restore? Most of the world trusts Russia more than ever.
You don’t have a realistic view. Russia is not ceding anything it already has. Chinese angle is ridiculous as well. China and Russia are staunch allies from now on with the idea to reshape the world order.
I don’t care about Ukraine or Russia. Not my circus, not my monkeys. And NOT my tax dollars...
Confidence, a positive attitude, and hope. Good things to have “if” what you believe in is even remotely feasible.
This war (((will not))) end like many folks thought it would.
The simple fact is that we messed with a near peer that we can’t just push around at will. Russia actually has the capabilities to push back even conventionally, to withstand our economic and intel warfare games and we do NOT want to escalate this conflict to the point where nukes are being hurled around.
So, after we escalate things to the maximum in an attempt to somehow win this, but these efforts fail, we are really left with two options, (1) major theater war where NATO troops get committed, escalating things to the point of a nuclear conflict, or (2) fail in accomplishing our stated political and military objectives.
This war was predictable in that it would happen and it was ENTIRELY provoked by us (contrary to what we claim): https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/
The outcome of this war was predictable.
This war wasn’t necessary and it could have been avoided literally right up until the Russian invasion.
There is no true national security interest being served for us our our NATO partners.
This is a stupid war by the rich and for the rich, who at this point have lost interest in Ukraine anyhow. EU and NATO serve as the underwriter, securing consistency in policies, physical security, stability for those investing heavily in Ukraine. That is all a moot point now anyway.
The reason for the continuation of this stupidity at this point is that you have many and major western political figures and institutions who’s credibility are at stake. At this point it’s about political survival.
For the US and the EU, the winning hand is to keep Ukraine going and let sanctions grind the Russian economy down and Putin to be ousted. The alternative is a bargain that protects Ukraine and lets Putin remain in power to become a Franco of sorts, despised internationally but secure in his control of Russia and able to pass on his wealth to this family.
As for military strength, Russia is simply not a peer or near peer compared to the US. As fumbling of the Ukraine war shows, the Russian military is poorly equipped, badly led, and no match for the US and NATO.
You don’t care about good paying American jobs in the energy and defense sectors? That’s ok. President Trump does.
(1) Outcome of Ukraine.
Russia has already won in Ukraine, politically and militarily.
Politically: Ukraine is not in NATO.
Militarily: Seize the majority ethnic Russian areas of Ukraine (~80% complete).
Any peace deal will take into consideration the fact that Russia has the initiative and upper hand, i.e. will be to their favor.
Russia accomplished this despite a flood of foreign mercenaries (from all around the world, literally), US and European support logistically, with intel, money, training and arms.
Russia accomplished this despite retaining forces along their Northern border with Finland, in Belarus, Armenia, Syria, Nigeria, Venezuela... Like us, Russia has military forces committed to multiple operations simultaneously and they cannot simply drop everything else because of Ukraine.
(2) The balance of power.
You are correct in that Russia is far weaker than us in every respect (economic, technological, demographic, political, militarily), especially if one considers our and their allies (they have few and those are weak). The only exception to this is in terms of nuclear deterrence where they enjoy complete parity.
Your statement is especially accurate in the beginning of this war, since Russia had a “peace-time” economy and defense posture.
(Speculation) Many folks at the most senior levels agree with your assessment and no longer saw Russia as a near peer, that is why we became so assertive with them. We have been pushing on Russia for years (stripping away oil and gas producers that once were theirs: Iraq, Syria, Libya, Venezuela), and our actions in Ukraine show a complete disregard for Russia's interests, as evidenced by Minsk, Montreux which we constantly try to violate, withdraw from the Ballistic Missile Treaty, cheating regards the Conventional Forces Europe Treaty, and pretending like we didn't promise no NATO East expansion to them in the 90s (which of course we did).
However, weaker in this case does not mean defenseless, or unable to stand their ground against us, which they are. We under estimated Russia and took actions which pose a national security threat to them (NATO/US playing on their border in Ukraine).
Weaker in this case, is still a nation with 144 million people (44% ours), a large number of men reaching military age every year (40% ours), a high literacy rate (higher than ours), and producing more STEM and science majors at its universities than Germany, the UK, or France. Russia has a robust infrastructure, one of the worlds largest GDPs and especially PPPs (#4 in the world), a capable R&D base, industrial and manufacturing capabilities. They have a political reach around the world (even into our neighbor Mexico). Their intel apparatus is large and capable and they are able to fend off our psyop and intel activities. Through organizations such as BRICS, OPEC+ and CSTO, their arms sales (second only to us), strategic resource's (oil, gas, titanium, gold, silver), food and fertilizer, they have substantial influence on the world stage.
They are not an equal, but they are also not some third rate South American, African or Middle East regime we can kick around at will.
Weaker is a nation that within months figures out how to counter our drones, counter our jamming of their drones with their fiber optic drones, renders our Excalibur GPS guided 155mm shells no more effective than a 1960s HE round, makes substantial changes to their organization and tactics, and swells its manpower of ground forces from 256K (pre war) to 500K present day in 2 years...
You are not dealing with inept retards with limited means such as the Iraqi military in 2003, and it is a mistake to make those you dislike or see as a threat into such.
(3) Don't hold your breath with the sanctions.
There are four variables that are significantly different today vs. the Cold War which your perception is based on.
—China is an ally of Russia, not ours. China sees us as their adversary but Russia as their geopolitical ally and leverage against us. China has the upper hand with Russia who is becoming more and more dependent on China. Today, China has grown to the worlds largest manufacturing base since the end of the Cold War. China is alone, >31% of the global manufacturing base and about TWICE our size in that respect. China is NOT playing along with our sanctions and games and despite some lip service, we're not going to do anything because China is too important for us (US exports, US securities held by China, a base for US manufacturing, political influence in the US, media influence in the US, militarily a true near peer and far larger than Russia).
—Russia today has an economy much like ours. It's a mixed economy and in fact pre-Ukraine war, their government share of the GDP was slightly less than ours. You are not dealing with a command driven / centralized economy as in the Cold War and its inherent inefficiencies and inability to predict demand.
—With a balanced approach, you're not looking at Russia depleting themselves long term through massive defense spending. Russia understands the “guns vs. butter” concept of such long term campaigns and they are playing a balancing act with only 7-8% GDP being committed to their war machine.
—Our sanctions are largely Swiss-cheese. Most our allies realize Russia is no threat to them despite our beating of the Cold War cliche drum and pretending that Russia is going to continue invading others after Ukraine (those idiot arguments were for the people on the street). Their willingness to suffer economically so that we can get what we want in Ukraine is very low. With no “true” threat perception, most of our allies (especially outside the EU) are not that committed to these sanctions and you have 1,000 different expections and ways Russia and some of pur allies work around these sanctions which are already weakening. Example, does Japan really want to pay for our games in Ukraine? No. They play along to some degree, especially in the public / media spotlight, but have under the table already created ways to where they can import Russian energy and export Jpanaese cars to Russia.
Two final notes:
War is a mess, and if you want to paint the Russians as inept because of Ukraine, what are we in your eyes? We weren't able to really subdue Afghanistan or Iraq, which have far less population, foreign meddling, lower tech militaries that haven't been built up for 7 years, aren't being fed intel to the level like we are with Ukraine, and do not have anything even close to the level of foreign fighters that are pouring into Ukraine and de facto paid for by us...
When you talk about the long term damage to Russia from our sanctions and the costs of this war, maybe you should also consider Ukraine and to some extent what this is doing to some European economies.
You're simply not dealing with some third rate player like Iraq or Libya.
Simply stringing together pejoratives, gangster, kleptocracy, corrupt, regards Russia as a nation, their leadership and military isn't an argument. Biden mentioning “kleptocracy” regards Russia is sort of ironic, quite frankly. Here's a guy that has built his political career on selling his influence talking about others being corrupt. Hahaha
When you look at things at a macro level, you realize that Russia is indeed still a powerful nation and while not an equal to us and especially if considering our allies, while no longer the power they once were in the Soviet and Warsaw Pact era, they are very much so capable of pushing back on us.
Look at GDP, PPP, population, number of men reaching military age, number of STEM graduates, government and university based research institutes, literacy rate, miles of paved road, rail, concrete and electrical usage (indicative of infrastructure), nationally based industry and manufacturing volume, size of intel service, military, and their strategic capabilities (nuclear and conventional force projection), international political influence (OPEC+, BRICS, CSTO and their sale of energy and arms) and you see a slightly different picture than some weak pathetic nation. IMHO, we underestimated Russia, gambled (hoping the cost of military intervention regards NATO expansion was too high) and bet wrong.
This caused a war: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/
That was our call.
Putin's foolish war is grinding away a generation of Russian men. Russians with portable wealth and skills or who become draft eligible flee the country. This is not a recipe for Russian national greatness -- or even for Russia's survival.
The Russian public though is still willing to pretend that continuing to fight in Ukraine and endure needless suffering and loss is a sign of strength. Eventually though, as with bears, the sturdiest and most resilient of creatures, nations become exhausted and bleed out if a fight continues for too long against stronger and more numerous adversaries.
With better military and industrial technology and a collective GDP about sixteen times that of Russia, the NATO nations have strength and staying power that Russia does not. Putin is betting that NATO will crack politically before Russia does. That is unlikely.
Indeed, NATO could put severe domestic pressure on Putin by announcing a massive new tranche of aid for Ukraine, tightening sanctions, and declaring that NATO will admit Ukraine as a member even in wartime if Putin remains in power and Russia does not make peace.
Or, if NATO falters, Ukraine and Poland could announce that they have assembled several dozen deliverable nuclear weapons for potential use against Russia, with Polish troops to intervene directly against Russian forces in Ukraine.
Or maybe China will decide that carving off the Russian Far East is a better play than trying to take Taiwan. Who would then come to Russia's aid? BRICS member Brazil? Most likely, Putin would end up being overthrown and suffering a fate like Qaddafi or Ceausescu. And that may happen anyway at the hands of Russian patriots. Autocrats who overstay their welcome tend to die bloody.
We, the US, are China's adversary, they see us as their regional and even global threat, and we see them as ours (bigger than Russia, by a huge margin militarily and economically) but only a regional power.
Both the US and Russia are essentially the same sort of nations in so far that you have what are oligarchies: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/62327F513959D0A304D4893B382B992B#
The US and Russia are mixed economies (private and public) and pre-war Russia actually had a smaller government share in the economy than the US by GDP.
They are both governed by a Constitution, and they both have a democratic process.
Both are world powers (Russia still is one and we are figuring that out now - even if you don't want to accept or believe such), nations that have a political, military and economic influence around the world. Many people had to die so that “experts” like Jake Sullivan can learn this.
It was a mistake to underestimate Russia, to gamble with Ukraine regards NATO East expansion, and to put Russia in a position where they are “threatened.”
It's not Russia that actually caused this war. We did that: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/
It is us that is continuing this bloodshed that has zero probability of ending positive for Ukraine or those in the West which advocated for war because those oligarchs in the West wanted EU and NATO membership for Ukraine. These organizations (EU and NATO) act as an underwriter for the giant financial institutions, corporations, asset management firms setting up in Ukraine.
Russia did accept our control over Ukraine. Russia would have even accepted EU membership for Ukraine, and this was well in reach before the war. However, Russia will not accept what amounts to a national security nightmare (NATO expansion into Ukraine).
Russia has proposed terms for ending this and it is the leadership in the West which turns these down, even if these terms are reasonable. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-must-not-be-pressured-into-bad-peace-deal-says-uk-pm-johnson-2022-06-07/ (it wasn't a bad deal, and it was actually BETTER than what Ukraine will get today).
We are not going to bleed out Russia, neither economically or demographically. We will have destroyed Ukraine when this war ends, but not Russia. When this war ends, and it will, it will be Mr. Z that flees Ukraine out of fear of what his own countrymen will do to him, not Putin. When this war ends, it will be under unfavorable terms to our side and the Ukraine, because WE ARE LOSING.
The policies of escalation on our side, which we have been pursuing in hope of turning around our loss in Ukraine, have run to their limit. If we want to save Ukraine, we would have to provide them deep strike weapons and / or commit our own ground forces. Both of these options are not politically tenable and would cause for a Russian response (((you))) would not like.
Recommendation: screw with third rate Middle East nations, but give Russia the same sort of respect we give China.
At some point, you should ask yourself, if your beliefs line up with the physical evidence of the real world? Regardless of what we would like to have true.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-rating-russia/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-is-master-all-he-surveys-russians-head-polls-2024-03-15/
Putin is seen as someone restoring Russian pride and strength. He hasn’t overstayed his “welcome.”
On the other hand, why do you think we in the West have stopped publishing opinion polls reagrads the Ukraine war and its support? How “popular” do you think Mr. Z really is in Ukraine?
Like other autocrats, Putin’s control of the news media permit him to remain popular, rig and win elections, and persist in a foolish war.
This is just the start of the talk-talk. Russia will have to give up something and so will Ukraine. Russia will have to give Ukrain some free gas and oil, let them keep Odessa, They keep the land bridge to Crimea. Ukraine needs to open the Russian Churches, free the Priests and nuns. He may ask for Zelensky’s head on a platter. Free Elections would be good—for Ukraine and the Donbas, overseen by the UN. Russia has the upper hand and Chinese support to keep the ship of state afloat.
Only way to keep Ukraine going is to send in US Troops—Polish, and Germans. That means WW III and war with Russia-China-Iran-North Korea. Do we want that? Could we win? Troops would need to fight their way into Moscow and Peking. Just occupation of those lands would be a challenge.
The US and Russia are vastly different countries. In spite of maintaining the trappings of elections and a constitution, Russia is essentially a gangster state presided over by Putin, the siloviki, and a clutch of oligarchs.
Russia's elections are a sham, with Putin's opponents murdered or imprisoned, and the constitution frequently amended to keep Putin in power by changing the name of his office and extending term limits. If Putin and Russia want respect, they ought to conduct themselves in a respectable manner.
When Putin was first installed in power with the help of the KGB, his desire to reassert Russian control over the sphere of the former Soviet Union was clear. That put Ukraine in Russia's crosshairs and drove her toward a desperate embrace of the EU and NATO. In spite of Russia's supposed military reforms, her corrupt and fumbling military proved unequal to the task of subduing Ukraine by force. And Putin was exposed as a dope when it came to military strategy.
On balance, Russia today is militarily and economically far weaker in relative terms than the USSR but is in some respects more dangerous due to Putin's fantasies about Russia being a world power. Whatever kind of a peace deal with Ukraine emerges in the coming months, it will not change Russia's trajectory of decline.
At 72, Putin's remaining time is limited, and it is a close question as to whether he or Russia in her present form will still exist a decade from now. China also has fundamental problems but her highest circle of leaders seem to have a sense of caution grounded in an awareness of how tenuous China's central governments are throughout history.
Twenty years from now, the US will still be world's sole superpower, more dominant and admired than ever.
China is crawling up our ass as a world super power (we simply want to remain ignorant about this reality) and our actions in the last 20 years have proven that we are willing to use force to achieve our economic or even internal political goals. We are not trusted and the world “fears” this unipolar world today.
https://youtu.be/UD4kFxyHALo?si=AknDOahNVZMgLlHB (Senior US politician advocating unilateral military action inside a sovereign neighboring nation without their approval. Not even our NAFTA memebers and neighbors trust us)
China and Russia trade, but China has complete access to Russian resources at extremely favorable terms which would be the interest China has in Russia. There is no benefit for China to take military action on Russia or vice versa. Furthermore, both are in BRICS, both see “us” as their number one threat. There is a reason why China is armed with Soviet or Russian weapon systems until recent where China is developing and manufacturing more domestically and even now they are sharing. Your theory (Russia vs. China) is a fantasy and it’s possible to find arguments for why the earth is flat too, but are they relevant, does the physical evidence support these arguments, and what weight do they carry?
Our elections and “democracy” is no more real than in Russia. Both nations are oligarchies where those with the money have the influence on government and decide who is in power. The political apparatus needs money for campaigns, the party, PACS, and these oligarchs also outright own or have a massive influence on the MSM and big tech.
Trump is an anomaly and it doesn’t matter if Democrat or Republican, on the bigger issues the political class are in agreement because they all serve the same masters. This phenomena is referred to as the “uniparty” by some.
Attempt to break free of old and outdated world views which today are resuscitated in order to justify what we’re doing.
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