Posted on 11/07/2024 1:42:52 PM PST by verum ago
I just saw a post (now apparently zotted), speculating that Trump would end up losing the popular vote with all the slowly-counted Dem states trickling in. It made me curious what the actual situation is, so I went over to Decision Desk HQ and did some snooping around.
Basically, I went through the Blue states on the presidential election map and found all the ones that aren't reporting as >95% counted. I then extrapolated the total votes remaining to be counted based on their individual vote counts and percentages. They by and large are breaking roughly 60-40 in favor of Harris.
For the above set of states, I came up with ~11,407,000 votes remaining to be counted. At a 60-40 split, this would allow Harris to eat into Trump's popular vote lead by approximately 2,281,000 votes.
Trump's lead currently stands at 4,567,499.
Put differently, the remaining Dem states would have to end up with a 40.0% Harris advantage- that's a 70/30 split!- in order to wipe out Trump's lead in the popular vote.
So no, it doesn't look like Trump will end up losing the popular vote. Calm down, worriers. Also note that I deliberately didn't estimate the number of outstanding Trump votes in states that broke Red, which would only further ameliorate things.
And with that said, we WON. Trump has a mandate, and we need to start acting like it. We just got handed 4 years to get sh*t done. Let's get started by dropping the hand-wringing about voter perceptions of the victory. It was the voters that handed us- really, themselves- this victory in the first place!
It's time to MAGA
Just so happens i was looking for that same thread.
Within the thread was a graph showing the popular vote results for the last 4-5 presidential elections.
I was looking for that graph!... whoever posted it, can you do here again???
Thanks!
What percentage is counted in California?
“We just got handed 4 years to get sh*t done.”
Trump has disappeared — he’s probably working with his team to get that stuff done as soon as they can.
Rep Scot Perry (R) has won in PA 10th Cong District.
He is a border & immigration hawk.
It also looks like swamp rat Sen Bob Casey PA is about to lose.
They say the first 8 months are the crucial period to get anything significant done.
Better think and act like its only 2 years...midterms ya know...
India (1.5B population, multiple languages, etc.) can count its votes faster than CA, NV, or AZ.
“ What percentage is counted in California?”
I saw 55%.
Final tallies in CA could reduce Trump’s lead by 1.5M, give or take.
Trump leads now by 4.6M or so.
Liberal math is how you voted X 4 + emotional impact - gender ID / 12 X the square root of your student loan payoff = desired effect.
60% is counted in CA.
She is getting about 60% of that vote.
Thanks for the post.
New York Times projecting Trump wins popular vote by 1.6% after all votes have been counted. That said, Trump is currently doing better in California than was previously expected.
He also needs to stay out of sight - line of sight - because he is a bigger target than ever before. “They” don’t want him to take office and are running out of ways to stop him.
Last time this happened we got the largest entitlement program in history, and every veteran package was soundly defeated.
I’m not optimistic
Expect about 8.18 milllion more votes just from the three left coast states. Based on their individual current state percentage splits, they will bring Harris up to ~73.5 million, but Trump will be at ~76.6 million. So, Trump will still have a 3.1 million lead in popular votes (again, just based on projections after those left coast results are completed).
Trump will have the largest popular vote margin of victory since 1988.
Yes. I’ve been pondering how he is going to govern if he has to stay out of sight all the time. He thrives on meeting his constituents and they love seeing him.
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