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Popular Vote Math (vanity)
FR ^ | 7 November 2024 | self

Posted on 11/07/2024 1:42:52 PM PST by verum ago

I just saw a post (now apparently zotted), speculating that Trump would end up losing the popular vote with all the slowly-counted Dem states trickling in. It made me curious what the actual situation is, so I went over to Decision Desk HQ and did some snooping around.

Basically, I went through the Blue states on the presidential election map and found all the ones that aren't reporting as >95% counted. I then extrapolated the total votes remaining to be counted based on their individual vote counts and percentages. They by and large are breaking roughly 60-40 in favor of Harris.

For the above set of states, I came up with ~11,407,000 votes remaining to be counted. At a 60-40 split, this would allow Harris to eat into Trump's popular vote lead by approximately 2,281,000 votes.

Trump's lead currently stands at 4,567,499.

Put differently, the remaining Dem states would have to end up with a 40.0% Harris advantage- that's a 70/30 split!- in order to wipe out Trump's lead in the popular vote.

So no, it doesn't look like Trump will end up losing the popular vote. Calm down, worriers. Also note that I deliberately didn't estimate the number of outstanding Trump votes in states that broke Red, which would only further ameliorate things.

And with that said, we WON. Trump has a mandate, and we need to start acting like it. We just got handed 4 years to get sh*t done. Let's get started by dropping the hand-wringing about voter perceptions of the victory. It was the voters that handed us- really, themselves- this victory in the first place!


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: election2024; popularvote; trump
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We've got the White House, the Senate, and very likely the House as well.

It's time to MAGA

1 posted on 11/07/2024 1:42:52 PM PST by verum ago
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To: verum ago

Just so happens i was looking for that same thread.

Within the thread was a graph showing the popular vote results for the last 4-5 presidential elections.

I was looking for that graph!... whoever posted it, can you do here again???

Thanks!


2 posted on 11/07/2024 1:45:17 PM PST by Safrguns
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To: verum ago

What percentage is counted in California?


3 posted on 11/07/2024 1:46:11 PM PST by JSM_Liberty
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To: verum ago

“We just got handed 4 years to get sh*t done.”

Trump has disappeared — he’s probably working with his team to get that stuff done as soon as they can.


4 posted on 11/07/2024 1:46:20 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (“President Trump sells out Madison Square Garden -- Kamala sells out America”)
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To: verum ago

Rep Scot Perry (R) has won in PA 10th Cong District.

He is a border & immigration hawk.

It also looks like swamp rat Sen Bob Casey PA is about to lose.


5 posted on 11/07/2024 1:46:45 PM PST by Col Frank Slade
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To: verum ago

They say the first 8 months are the crucial period to get anything significant done.


6 posted on 11/07/2024 1:50:30 PM PST by Reily
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To: JSM_Liberty
What percentage is counted in California?

60%; just over 10 million votes. It's about that same 60-40 split that seems to be happening in the deep blue states.

So expect a total of about 16.7 million votes in commiefornia, with a net gain of about 1.3 million for Harris by the time it's over, give or take. California will account for the outright majority of whatever ground Harris makes up in the popular vote.
7 posted on 11/07/2024 1:51:17 PM PST by verum ago (I figure some people must truly be in love, for only love can be so blind.)
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To: verum ago
We just got handed 4 years to get sh*t done

Better think and act like its only 2 years...midterms ya know...

8 posted on 11/07/2024 1:52:49 PM PST by Magnum44 (...against all enemies, foreign and domestic... )
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To: verum ago

India (1.5B population, multiple languages, etc.) can count its votes faster than CA, NV, or AZ.


9 posted on 11/07/2024 1:56:28 PM PST by rfp1234 (E Porcibus Unum)
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To: JSM_Liberty

“ What percentage is counted in California?”

I saw 55%.

Final tallies in CA could reduce Trump’s lead by 1.5M, give or take.

Trump leads now by 4.6M or so.


10 posted on 11/07/2024 1:56:45 PM PST by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: verum ago

Liberal math is how you voted X 4 + emotional impact - gender ID / 12 X the square root of your student loan payoff = desired effect.


11 posted on 11/07/2024 1:57:41 PM PST by maddog55 (The only thing systemic in America is the left's hatred of it!)
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To: JSM_Liberty

60% is counted in CA.

She is getting about 60% of that vote.


12 posted on 11/07/2024 1:58:15 PM PST by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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To: verum ago

Thanks for the post.


13 posted on 11/07/2024 2:01:56 PM PST by FlingWingFlyer (Have the ballot counters in Maricopa County and Las Vegas sobered up yet?)
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To: Safrguns
Just so happens i was looking for that same thread.

Within the thread was a graph showing the popular vote results for the last 4-5 presidential elections.

I was looking for that graph!... whoever posted it, can you do here again???


This is driving me nuts. I know the exact graph you're talking about, and I must've seen it a dozen times over the past day and a half or so, but now I can't find it either!
14 posted on 11/07/2024 2:31:20 PM PST by verum ago (I figure some people must truly be in love, for only love can be so blind.)
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To: verum ago

New York Times projecting Trump wins popular vote by 1.6% after all votes have been counted. That said, Trump is currently doing better in California than was previously expected.


15 posted on 11/07/2024 2:47:10 PM PST by Tipllub
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To: ProtectOurFreedom

He also needs to stay out of sight - line of sight - because he is a bigger target than ever before. “They” don’t want him to take office and are running out of ways to stop him.


16 posted on 11/07/2024 2:48:06 PM PST by webheart
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To: verum ago

Last time this happened we got the largest entitlement program in history, and every veteran package was soundly defeated.
I’m not optimistic


17 posted on 11/07/2024 2:53:17 PM PST by joe fonebone (And the people said NO! The End)
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To: verum ago

Expect about 8.18 milllion more votes just from the three left coast states. Based on their individual current state percentage splits, they will bring Harris up to ~73.5 million, but Trump will be at ~76.6 million. So, Trump will still have a 3.1 million lead in popular votes (again, just based on projections after those left coast results are completed).


18 posted on 11/07/2024 2:57:51 PM PST by toddmoore
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To: verum ago

Trump will have the largest popular vote margin of victory since 1988.


19 posted on 11/07/2024 2:58:55 PM PST by TornadoAlley3 ( I'm Proud To Be An Okie From Muskogee)
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To: webheart

Yes. I’ve been pondering how he is going to govern if he has to stay out of sight all the time. He thrives on meeting his constituents and they love seeing him.


20 posted on 11/07/2024 3:11:32 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom (“President Trump sells out Madison Square Garden -- Kamala sells out America”)
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