Posted on 11/04/2024 5:22:21 AM PST by dennisw
https://polymarket.com/elections
Trump had a lead of as much as 30 points. This was 10 days ago. But then.....Some days DJT went down drastically. Like a stock being dumped by speculators - profiteers. DJT lead shrank to as little as 8 points.
But the tide has turned, as DJT now leads by 13 points this morning. So I am feeling much better about DJT winning.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Real Clear politics average of 8 betting sites is looking EXCELLENT!!! >>>>
RCP Average
Trump 56.0 ——— Kammy 42.9
Not that I believe anything polls say, but how can they be so out of line with this?
Dems know they can’t look down in the numbers or no Ds will show up election day. Ds are 80% of 2020 EV numbers while Rs are 101%. They need everything they have.
It’s still a guess who will prevail, American voters or Rat fraud. In Venezuela fraud prevailed.
I would trust Tarot cards before Polymarket.
I hate to be that guy but...
Polymarket is also predicting a Democrat House, and a Republican Senate.
This is what Trump had for the last two years of his first term, and what led to all of the investigations and two impeachments by the House.
So if this holds, look for a third impeachment, endless investigations, an no Trump imitative legislation such as no taxes on tips, SS, and overtime in Trump’s first two years at least.
Based on all we currently know 60/40 Trump seems about right. If GA and NC are called early for Trump the market should go to 80/20 Trump almost instantly
“Not that I believe anything polls say, but how can they be so out of line with this?”
The real test, and finding out, will be on election day. Then we will see how polling vs betting markets pans out. Let’s admit that most polling is run by Democrats. And that PolyMarket is crypto user’s slanted. Who tend to be Trump voters.
Reminder-— I also posted the RCP average of 8 betting markets. It comes in at
Trump 56.0 — Kammy 42.9
Slaughter of the unborn.
Destroyers of the manliness of men.
Corruptors of womanhood.
Liberators of the lewd and lawless.
Terrorists against American Borders.
Fierce with fake and corrupt news.
Livid against citizens with guns.
Upholders of poor education and ignorance.
Progressive at piteous pursuits.
Champions of conspiracy against America.
Ever upset, always discontented.
A party without a conscience.
Purposely pursue every abomination.
Progressive at endless waste and debt.
Magnets to the uncivil, ungodly and ungrateful.
Liberal at lying.
Captains of intolerance against God and the Bible.
Supporters of America's enemies.
Creators of crisis, strife and discord in America.
Betrayers of Israel.
A very present danger to America's youth.
Obsessed with everything sex.
Mockers of the rule of law.
Deceivers of the poor.
Devilish hate disrespect for anything American.
Dems know they can’t look down in the numbers or no Ds will show up election day.
Another factor for tomorrow is the weather. Rained all weekend, still raining out here on the frontier. Haven’t checked the forecast yet, but what is the forecast for PA, NJ, NY...and points east?
>Another factor for tomorrow is the weather. Rained all weekend, still raining out here on the frontier. Haven’t checked the forecast yet, but what is the forecast for PA, NJ, NY...and points east?
PA-MI-east coast sunny. WI rain.
WI is the one that goes first of the rust belts, in my mind. PA will count for 1-2 days, but if WI goes and sunbelts all go Trump (likely) PA will speed up the count and Trump will win.
Halperin said that Ds look good with 500k after EV, but they only are plus 400k after EV. (Excluding Erie, which voted through the weekend.
“Based on all we currently know 60/40 Trump seems about right. If GA and NC are called early for Trump the market should go to 80/20 Trump almost instantly”
My odds are at 33% that we will see an early shocker projection of a Trump win as early as 9-11PM. This just might happen!
I pray that we have enough Republican personal - observers in the BIG BLACK CHEAT N STEAL inner cities
Detroit
Philadelphia
Milwaukee and so on and on and on.........
Arizona too!
people day trade this so volatile.
The last-minute Fake Polls the DEMS are putting out are only there to reassure the faint-hearted Democrat base.
Without hope, the election day Dems won’t show up. And, that will trigger a down ballot Disaster.
” In Venezuela fraud prevailed.”
And the Venezuelans sent their worst here, invited by Democrats, to make the same thing happen.
Ohio Senate flips “D”?
I hope you’re correct-—never underestimate evil and how evil will do ANYTHING to survive.
Reconsider usingthe term “rust belt.” It’s a put down term invented by coastal elites. How about using “heartland” or “midwest” or the “industrial midwest” instead?
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