Posted on 10/31/2024 6:28:05 AM PDT by vespa300
A Tuesday poll showed Arizona Senate Republican candidate Kari Lake pulling ahead of Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, breaking with recent data showing Lake trailing by a significant margin.
(Excerpt) Read more at lifenews.com ...
The mass of polls shows Lake closing the gap. This is where my Rule of 6 kicks in. Continued momentum (up to 3 points) PLUS bias in the polling average (up to 3 points) means Lake has a real chance. Also Brown in Nevada.
The Demoncrats are circling the wagons. As far as President is concerned, they figure it’s the blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona look lost to Trump, and Nevada doesn’t have enough Electoral Votes to make a difference. The problem for the Democrats is that there are Senate seats and Congressional seats in play.
Chuck Schumer has money independent of Harris (as does Mitch McConnell independent of Trump), but with it looking like Trump’s going to win Arizona, the Democrats are going to have difficulty getting out the vote. The early voting data look very favorable for our side, and Trump may win big with Lake benefiting. Ditto Brown in Nevada.
Now is the time for all good patriots to come to the aid of their country.
OMG...LETS GO KARI!!!!!!!!!
Looks like Trump is ahead in Arizona.
I cannot imagine anyone voting for Trump and then voting for Gallego.
No it isn’t. That’s what the dying old media wants you to believe. This election is about whether we want to remain a Republic of the people, by the people, for the people, or become some sort of Neo-feudalistic, socialist, ‘utopia’.
Of course they do. But, who knows. Will we really know next week. Hard to believe katie won the Gov race but. And if the rank and file dems are okay with the failed opponent and tampon timmy.........without their input......
This is good news.
What I meant about abortion is that it’s the only issue for a large chunk of voters to the exclusion of everything else (that is, on the pro-abortion side).
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻 NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE Democ Rat capacity to CHEAT.
Abandoned his pregnant wife for a “Democratic lobbyist” too.
Abortion has been removed to the states, it is no longer a federal issue. Through Trump's appointments to the SC, Roe v. Wade has been defanged and destroyed. Get your family and friends to the polls! Charge into the breach in the blue wall and keep wading into the enemy.
Currently, my poll-based probability model of 5,000 simulated elections has Lake winning her race only 14.72% of the time.
If I add 1% to her poll results and subtract 1% from Gallego's poll results, Lake's probability of winning grows to 27.42%.
If I add a 2% bias to Lake, her probability of winning becomes 44.41%. The polling for Lake is too far behind for a 2% polling bias to correct.
Overall, my model shows Republicans winning the Senate with an expected value of 52.47 Senate seats A 1% bias causes the Republicans to win an expected value of 54.27 seats in the Senate.
A 2% bias gives Republicans 55.92 expected Senate seats.
-PJ
My wife’s not a fan, but did end up voting for her, so I think the word is getting out on how radical Gallego is.
I think once AZ voters realize that she CAN win, that will shift the momentum to her all the more.
She is an excellent candidate.
Absolutely. I miss hearing her shut down leftist reporters.
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