Ok, I’m repeating my self. I’ll just use the ‘official’ numbers, because even ignoring the margin of cheat, the numbers look bad for Dems.
2016 - Hillary ended +2% of the popular vote, she lost the election.
2020 - Biden ended +4.5% of the popular vote, he won by very narrow margins.
2024 - If Trump wins by +3% of the popular vote, he probably takes Minn. and VA in addition to all the swing states. In any case Trump just being even in the popular vote would be bad news for Harris.
Trump +3 popular means you can also add. NH, NM, ME at large and NE2