Tropical disturbance ramps up to 60% chance of development

Wfla ^ | 09/08/2024 | Sara Filips

[ChicagoConservative27]

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three tropical disturbances as of Sunday morning.

One disturbance, located in the Central Tropical Atlantic is showing a 60% chance of development over the next week, while another in the Eastern and Central Atlantic has a 50% chance.

The wave that is slightly more westward has a 40% chance of development over the next 48 hours, as the area of low pressure begins to show gradual signs of organization, the NHC said. A tropical depression could form on Monday, as it moves through the waters at about 10 mph.

[ChicagoConservative27]

60 percent chance?? Oh noes! Raid your local Walmart now!!! (S)

[stanne]

They’re very hopeful

[alancarp]

Here's the map of what they're describing above... and BTW... those percentages are almost always underdone. Anybody on the western/north-western side of the Gulf of Mexico has already seen over a foot of rain from that irritant storm.

[fruser1]

Lol, if it weren’t for this, the headline would be “Ocean still wet and days getting shorter mean higher chance for destructive storm”

I have relatives in hurricane territory. Anything under cat 3 is generally ignored. Maybe they pick some extra water up at the store on the way home or something.

[Jane Long]

Gulf Coast power companies already sending out scare emails.

[Cletus.D.Yokel]

windy.com forecasts #2 to lose steam well before it reaches Cuba.
#3, OTOH is forecast to get stronger and then get a bump North as it gets over the Gulf Stream.
Possible CAT3++ in a week and may impact US (around SoCarolina??) in 2 weeks.
Too early to tell.

All forecast.
Grain of salt...

[rarestia]

It’s absurd. Local media is in fear frenzy mode. If you’re in Florida or the Gulf Coast and you’re not aware it’s peak hurricane season, you’re an idiot.

[metmom]

Eh, about half.

IOW, it might happen, it might not.

[Ronaldus Magnus III]

Whether it is the Globull Cooling, Globull Warming, Climate Change, Climate Crisis Hoax, or the regular meteorologist, the phraseology is all the same:

Maybe
Perhaps
Chance of
Partly

I lived in an area where, for months, the daily, weekly weather report simply interchanged Partly Cloudy and Partly Sunny.

Now, for ‘possible’ rain and such, I just use the local doppler radar. I can figure it out just fine.

[John S Mosby]

WeatherBell has the northern push on #3 coming against a ridge and pushing the landfall of a possible hurricane up beyond NC and into New England. Weird season.