Posted on 09/06/2024 12:43:05 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
This week my colleague David Brooks and I offered dispatches from two different futures: One in which Kamala Harris edges out Donald Trump for the presidency, and one in which Trump is victorious. I wrote the “How Harris Wins” narrative, exploring a scenario in which the Democratic nominee succeeds in her effort to Marie Kondo-fy progressive politics, tidying things up by reducing the Democratic agenda to just a few popular components, and letting that simplified, joy-sparking platform expose the internal tensions of the Republican Party’s coalition of the discontented.
That’s a vision of what could happen, and I think that Harris has a good chance to win in exactly the way that I describe. But if you forced me to place a bet on what will happen, my current expectations are closer to the scenario offered by my colleague — in which Trump, not Harris, is the next president of the United States.
One might argue that the safest way to bet is simply not to make one. As of this writing Harris leads slightly in one of the popular betting markets, PredictIt, and Trump in another, Polymarket; in other words, for people making real wagers, it’s a tossup. The RealClearPolitics polling average in Pennsylvania, the most likely decisive state, is a tie. The election forecaster Nate Silver’s complex model gives Trump a 60 percent chance of victory — but the forecasting at his former home, FiveThirtyEight, thinks Harris has a 57 percent chance of winning.
All this looks like the very definition of a coin-flip election. So why do I expect the coin to fall Trump’s way? Three reasons, none of them completely rigorous, and all of them shadowed by the fact that I was wrong in 2016 (when I expected Trump to...
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
So much gaslight, so little time.
Kamala’s support is manufactured. I think 1/10th of Dems will vote Trump when they get to the ballot box, because the wallet votes, not the happy feelings of Kamala’s joy.
Synopsis? It’s behind paywall…
...(again).
Ross is planning to reprint whichever story is right after the election.
If Democrats are the contented ones, why are they all screaming like rabid dogs with saliva flying?!!
I think that among all those who had allowed their minds to submit to 5 years of intensive operant conditioning to feel that Trump was some sort of existential threat, there are a fraction who allowed the programed reaction to extinguish over the subsequent 3+ years, and started looking at the differences somewhat realistically.
Of the many robots who in 2020 election faithfully voted against Trump (not for Biden), some will not in 2024, because of inflation and the border. Even a 5% swing will be huge.
Yes. You got it right. So much gaslighting so little time. So much bs packed into one paragraph
In a long article of nothing. Styrofoam popcorn
His point is Kamala has maxxed out her favor ability she cannot improve on her numbers from here (without something unforeseen).
Ok.
“Democratic nominee succeeds in her effort to Marie Kondo-fy progressive politics…”
I pay attention a lot. What the heck is this?
“tidying things up by reducing the Democratic agenda”
Em… what Democratic agenda would that be?…exactly?
Synopsis is her poll numbers will not improve from here - surrounded by a lot of words bla bla bla
Ross is failing to take into account the ‘spontaneous death’ of Biden that the powers have planned.
My feeling is that if US elections were fraud free he’d win in a landslide.
Good synopsis!
Harris has no real supporters..they can’t even name one thing she stands for..they would vote for a block of wood if it had a D next to their name..they are not voting for her they are voting against Trump..if Harris were doing so well she would not be paying off and bussing in people from Massachusetts to her rally in New Hampshire
It all comes down to two things and two things only.....
Will they have the ability to steal it again?
Will they have the nerve to steal it again, if it’s going to be that much more egregiously obvious, with a much higher percentage of people who will scream fraud?
Trump is making a good case against the weaponized DOJ.
I think people will start listening to him more and more and see whats going on.
I hope they vote.
They will absolutely have the nerve to steal it again. Why do people doubt that they will stop at nothing?
Nothing
Here’s the other part of that scenario. Trump has zero shame about winning, succeeding. In this contest he is vying for the constitution. He has voter/base support but also US history on his side
He will succeed
One reason (not among the top 3 issues: economy/affordability, illegal immigration/border, crime/safety) for Trump to win is that voters believe Trump has earned the nomination. More Republican primary voters voted for Trump than any other alternative (Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley). In contrast Kamala Harris didn’t receive any Democrat primary votes. Even Marianne Williamson won more Democrat primary votes than Kamala Harris.
"Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."Charles Mackay
I think he won 2020 in a landslide.
But you are correct.
We will see. Emotions are so high and polarized I fear people who see blatant fraud for the Dems occurring will start shooting people dead they see doing it. What a sad and tragic place we have come to. The rhetoric I see flying leaves little hope of reconciliation. Am I wrong?
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