Posted on 09/01/2024 9:07:12 AM PDT by hardspunned
The assassination of Austro-Hungarian Archduke Franz Ferdinand by Bosnian Serb Gavrilo Princip in late June 1914 had one of the strongest ripple effects in modern history, setting off a series of war declarations across Europe and plunging the world into one of its deadliest conflicts.
World War I, however, didn’t officially begin until a month after Ferdinand’s assassination, and though tensions were high, the fight wasn’t inevitable, according to Ronald Spector, professor of history and international affairs.
George Washington Today sat down with Dr. Spector to discuss the assassination, the path to war and the new Europe it created.
Q: What was the mood in Europe in the summer of 1914, right around the time of the assassination? A: At the time, things actually seemed to be getting better. The Moroccan Crisis had been settled, the French and Germans had concluded an agreement about the Rhine River, and at the time of the assassination the German Navy was hosting the British Navy at Kiel Week, which is a huge bash with yacht and boat races. Of course, there were certain structural causes present, including the rise of nationalism in the Balkans, the alliance systems and the long-term arms race in naval and land weapons. But these things were in the background. It didn’t seem, in the summer of 1914, that there was much worry about a global war. The French and British newspapers, even for several weeks after the assassination, referred to it as “the Balkan crisis.” They didn’t think this would be a worldwide conflict.
(Excerpt) Read more at gwtoday.gwu.edu ...
No.
It was going to happen. The only questions were when and where.
Two events in the late 1800s made world war 1 inevitable:
1. The French revolution which created the concept of nation states prompting Germanization, Russification in the late 1800s alongside the rebirth of nations (franconization and anglicization occurred in the first half of the 1809s)
2. The partition of the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth which out the Germanic world on a direct border with Muscowy
Napoleon, for starters. France was what Germany later became - the top dog in Europe. France's offenses weren't as great as Germany's would be, but they must have done their share of pushing around. Also, I'm not sure how much the Germans hated France. Maybe it was more like the Germans wanted to rule Europe and the French were in the way. There was certainly much envy, given that Britain and France had gotten first and second pick of colonies in Africa, Asia, and the Pacific, and Germany and the other European countries had to argue over scraps.
If Trump is assassinated, will civil war begin in America?
No.
Kamala will calm everybody. As will McConnel.
France certainly deserves its share of the blame. Not saying the Germans and Austro-Hungarians weren’t blameless neither. All three were in the wrong, and they had to ultimately drag Britain, and subsequently the US, into it.
Not to mention Britains desire to boot the Turks out of the Middle East. It probably would have been better had the Arabs stayed under Turkish rule, compared to what we have today over there.
Germany was created on the anti French sentiment. Heck Napoleon created Germany by reducing the multiple German states to just q4 and killing off the holy Roman empire.
France would never have allied with Germany.
The UK was tolerant of Germany until Wilhelm 2 decided to challenge the royal navy’s supremacy.
I think more the Germans wanted to control more of the continent, since they didn’t have the colonies that France and Britain had, but the French and Brits didn’t even want them to have that.
Well, there wouldn’t have been WW1 as we know it, at least. I’m still pretty sure that there would have been some sort of a war or wars, albeit with a different cast of characters and possibly restrained to just Europe.
The Kaiser’s Blank Check promise to the Austro-Hungarians and Germany’s insistence on attempting to become a top tier Great Power by challenging the British which is what led to the Blank Check in order to get the Austro-Hungarians on side is the final measure that escalated the stupid Serbian dispute into the monster known as World War 1. If the Kaiser hadn’t honored his Blank Check promise or had simply had a more normal defensive treaty, the whole thing falls apart. The Kaiser’s backing is what made the Austrians not accept Serbia’s proposition.
I believe he began to suffer from megalomania, as he achieved one success after the other.
The British post-war division of the former Ottoman Empire’s Middle Eastern possessions is what directly lead to our modern problems in that region, of course.
The “blank check” that Wilhelm gave to A-H was done in the belief that the Russians wouldn’t fight, because he didn’t feel the Russians at that point were strong enough. He freaked out when he actually saw Nicky mobilizing, and that’s why he sent him the letter pleading for him to stop it.
I agree with you, that it really was a disaster waiting to happen. In 1905 there was the Morocco crisis, in 1911-13 there were the Balkan wars…
And in 1911, during the second Morocco crisis, the French media almost managed to get the war going, by depicting the deployment of German warships to Morocco, for the protection of German workers and businesses there, as an aggressive move against French interests in the African country.
Morocco was not yet a French colony then, but a sovereign country.
And while Western Europe was at peace...
* Hungary was enduring a Bolshevik Revolution (the Hundred Days of Bela Kun) in 1919, during which tens of thousands of Hungarians were murdered by the Reds.
* Hungary, Romania, and Czech armies continued fighting throughout the "peace negotiations," trying to capture as much territory as possible, making their new borders a fait accompli.
* Soviet Bolsheviks attacked Poland in February 1919, a war that lasted until 1921.
* And a big civil war was raging in Russia, which would claim more deaths than Russian losses in WW I.
Another thing that the history books won’t tell you:
In 1914 after hearing of Serbia’s response to the Austro-Hungarian empire’s ultimatum Kaiser Wilhelm said this “A great moral victory for Vienna but with it, all reason for war is lost”.
So he didn’t see any reason for A-H to go to war with Serbia at that point.
> I believe he [Napoleon] began to suffer from megalomania, as he achieved one success after the other. <
Yes, I think you’re right. Napoleon had “victory disease”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victory_disease
Lots of countries had that disease. Japan in WW2 probably had the worst case.
https://pearlharbor.org/blog/what-is-victory-disease/
I find the phenomenon interesting because the United States caught a case of it right after WW2. We decisively beat Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. Therefore, we would decisively win every new war, everywhere.
Korea, Vietnam, and then Afghanistan all proved that idea wrong. Yet many in DC still believe it, and so are itching to start new wars.
Actually, there were a few dreamers in Germany, but the majority wanted peace.
But it was not that Napoleon created Germany. He created a resurgence of German nationalism, but we have been here as a country since 962 AD 😀 It was just that the First Reich, as it was called, had become moribund in the latter half of the 18th century, so it eventually fell prey to the French invader (a long story, but this is how it ended).
The Lusitania was carrying contraband munitions to Britain (similar to how Hamas hides behind civilians). That made it a legitimate military target.
That's why the Lusitania sank so quickly. The German torpedo set off the British munitions.
Germany also bought full page newspaper ads in NYC newspapers, warning that passengers ships were a military target.
In addition, France was aligned with Russia, which presented a major threat to Germany's eastern frontier. Instead of seeking peace, the German General Staff contrived the Schlieffen Plan and an army to carry it out. The plan called for a rapid and powerful march through Belgium into France and the capture of Paris for a quick victory. The plan failed, just barely.
Google Norm Macdonald and his routine on World Wars and Germany.
A lot of people think that “Deutschland Uber Alles” expressed a desire for Germany to rule the world.
The phrase was an appeal to German monarchs to prioritize the creation of a united Germany over the independence of their small states.
For Germany, a country with a national anthem that called for her to be above all others in the world,
See #159
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